Dan Connelly is letting me down

[owknows]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tough to be good when this is the team you cover.

That said , the media could actually take on a role of challenging the team and asking real questions as times.

Connolly has done a little of that but not enough.

Not to quibble too finely, but there's an awful lot of interesting nuance to the path the Orioles are on, and the choices Elias makes as the tillerman. And to consideration of the dynamic between Hyde and Elias... (i.e. whether Hyde or the Front Office made the key lineup decisions)... And how free Elias' hand really is in free agency...

I see a lot of really good speculation and consideration of possibilities here on OH that a talented writer could turn into high quality copy with a little effort. I think the world is just generally lazier than it used to be.

[Jim'sKid26]

Maybe he's just mixing up drinks with mixed feelings while all along the paint is peeling.

[Moose Milligan]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

As I said its BS to say that the only way the O's can improve in 2023 is to trade for a starter.   He ignored the thing that improved the team  last year and is a leading reason why it will improve in 2023 and that is the young players.   You are welcome to your opinion but don't expect me to share it.

WC, the title of the article is "Orioles offseason recap:  Moves they made and what they're still missing"

At no point in the article did he argue that the only way they can improve is to trade for a starter.  He's not ignoring the young players.  You can write an article about the Orioles offseason moves and ignore Gunnar and Adley and the rest.  I know that's not what you want to hear but...again, the article didn't have to do with the youngsters. 

You're arguing against a point that Connolly never made.  

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

WC, the title of the article is "Orioles offseason recap:  Moves they made and what they're still missing"

At no point in the article did he argue that the only way they can improve is to trade for a starter.  He's not ignoring the young players.  You can write an article about the Orioles offseason moves and ignore Gunnar and Adley and the rest.  I know that's not what you want to hear but...again, the article didn't have to do with the youngsters. 

You're arguing against a point that Connolly never made.  

Connelly: "dealing for a coveted starting pitcher may still occur.  That is probably the Orioles last hope of a legitimately improved roster for 2023."

I think you are the one in denial.  Its not the last legitimate hope for improvement.  Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Ortiz, Hall, Westburg, Stowers can improve the roster.   And he ignores it.

Edited January 7, 2023 by wildcard

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Connelly: "dealing for a coveted starting pitcher may still occur.  That is probably the Orioles last hope of a legitimately improved roster for 2023."

I think you are the one in denial.  Its not the last legitimate hope for improvement.  Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Ortiz, Hall, Westburg, Stowers can improve the roster.   And he ignores it.

I think Dan is fine. I think he writes the best profiles of any Baltimore writer. His profiles of Cionel Perez, Santander, and his profile of Adley for the draft in 2019 were all very good. Turning to this article, I think the point that Dan was trying to make is that we should expect regression from the pitching staff, which will offset the gains from a full year of Adley, Gunnar, and Rodriguez. The way to legitimately improve the team such that those gains won’t be offset by starting pitcher regression is to acquire a legitimate starting pitcher that will protect against the regression. You are free to disagree, but it’s a reasonable take.

I also think Dan is more lukewarm than most on here on Ortiz, Westburg, and Stowers. Prospects fail all the time, and I think Dan would bet against all 3 of them becoming average major league regulars. I tend to agree and think if 1 of those 3 becomes an average or better major league regular, that’s a good outcome. I’m still concerned with Westburg’s prolonged cold streaks and ability to make contact with major league pitching, whether a Ortiz was just on a prolonged heater, and whether Stowers will make enough contact to tap into his power. When I saw Ortiz in October, it looked like he had billed up even more than he had coming into this year and wonder whether that will impact his range on defense. I think that’s part of the reason Elias hasn’t made a trade yet. I think he wants more data on that level of prospect.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Sydnor said:

I think Dan is fine. I think he writes the best profiles of any Baltimore writer. His profiles of Cionel Perez, Santander, and his profile of Adley for the draft in 2019 were all very good. Turning to this article, I think the point that Dan was trying to make is that we should expect regression from the pitching staff, which will offset the gains from a full year of Adley, Gunnar, and Rodriguez. The way to legitimately improve the team such that those gains won’t be offset by starting pitcher regression is to acquire a legitimate starting pitcher that will protect against the regression. You are free to disagree, but it’s a reasonable take.

I also think Dan is more lukewarm than most on here on Ortiz, Westburg, and Stowers. Prospects fail all the time, and I think Dan would bet against all 3 of them becoming average major league regulars. I tend to agree and think if 1 of those 3 becomes an average or better major league regular, that’s a good outcome. I’m still concerned with Westburg’s prolonged cold streaks and ability to make contact with major league pitching, whether a Ortiz was just on a prolonged heater, and whether Stowers will make enough contact to tap into his power. When I saw Ortiz in October, it looked like he had billed up even more than he had coming into this year and wonder whether that will impact his range on defense. I think that’s part of the reason Elias hasn’t made a trade yet. I think he wants more data on that level of prospect.

If Dan had said the things you said it would have been a good article but he didn't.  He did not mention Grayson, Gunnar, Stowers, Ortiz or Westburg in the article.

[foxfield]

I think Dan is a pretty good writer.  I also think his writing is skewed by his personal anger that a lot of long time Oriole employees who Dan has known for decades were terminated by Elias.

And it really does bubble up fairly often in his writing.

At the same time, when his focus is on a particular Oriole player, I think he is one of the best.

And for me that's worth a dollar.

[E-D-D-I-E]

8 hours ago, Sydnor said:

I think Dan is fine. I think he writes the best profiles of any Baltimore writer. His profiles of Cionel Perez, Santander, and his profile of Adley for the draft in 2019 were all very good. Turning to this article, I think the point that Dan was trying to make is that we should expect regression from the pitching staff, which will offset the gains from a full year of Adley, Gunnar, and Rodriguez. The way to legitimately improve the team such that those gains won’t be offset by starting pitcher regression is to acquire a legitimate starting pitcher that will protect against the regression. You are free to disagree, but it’s a reasonable take.

I also think Dan is more lukewarm than most on here on Ortiz, Westburg, and Stowers. Prospects fail all the time, and I think Dan would bet against all 3 of them becoming average major league regulars. I tend to agree and think if 1 of those 3 becomes an average or better major league regular, that’s a good outcome. I’m still concerned with Westburg’s prolonged cold streaks and ability to make contact with major league pitching, whether a Ortiz was just on a prolonged heater, and whether Stowers will make enough contact to tap into his power. When I saw Ortiz in October, it looked like he had billed up even more than he had coming into this year and wonder whether that will impact his range on defense. I think that’s part of the reason Elias hasn’t made a trade yet. I think he wants more data on that level of prospect.

As long as we find out IF any of the 3 are going to be major league regulars, then great. It already looks as though Stowers is being seen as a non-starter. I hope 91 ab's isn't the barometer they use to make those calls. Their track record in developing AND determining ability has been very poor for decades. In fact, a running joke about players leaving the O's and becoming All-Stars is common place, in my circles.

PS all power hitters go through cold streaks. Let's not scratch Westburg just yet.

 

 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

As long as we find out IF any of the 3 are going to be major league regulars, then great. It already looks as though Stowers is being seen as a non-starter. I hope 91 ab's isn't the barometer they use to make those calls. Their track record in developing AND determining ability has been very poor for decades. In fact, a running joke about players leaving the O's and becoming All-Stars is common place, in my circles.

PS all power hitters go through cold streaks. Let's not scratch Westburg just yet.

 

 

I don’t understand why people keep saying that the O’s already have written off Stowers.   I don’t see any sign of that at all.   The O’s had three healthy, fairly productive outfielders all last year.  We all agree Stowers could have played more once Mancini was traded and had some at bats taken away by Aguilar and Phillips, but honestly, it wasn’t that drastic.   Being cautious with Stowers is not the same thing as writing him off.   

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

Connelly: "dealing for a coveted starting pitcher may still occur.  That is probably the Orioles last hope of a legitimately improved roster for 2023."

I think you are the one in denial.  Its not the last legitimate hope for improvement.  Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Ortiz, Hall, Westburg, Stowers can improve the roster.   And he ignores it.

It appears your issue is with him saying " last hope of a legitimately improved roster for 2023" and not mentioning the improvement of the young players or the potential addition of prospects.

While I understand where you are coming from, I don't necessarily believe that what Connolly was going for with that comment.

Like many of us on here, we don't believe Elias has legitimately improved the roster for 2023 with his additions of Frazier, Gibson, McCann, Givens and the random waiver wire types he's been adding and subtracting. Now, I realize you and some others don't agree with that, and that's fine as it's worthy conversation, but I think what Connolly was going for was outside addition that were going to legitimately improve the roster for 2023.

Also, I'd like to say it's tough getting information now with the Elias run organization. In the past, many of us including Connolly had many source, but most of them have tried up and the newer folks are young or younger people who are less willing to talk in any kind of meaningful way.

Now, as I was cut off from the press box for the first time in 20+ years, I can't tell you how often Connolly was there last year and I don't know what "sources" if any Connolly has within the organization, but I'm sure he does still have outside organization sources as many of us still do as well.

Lastly, unless he's "breaking" news from sources, he's really not writing for the Hangout crowd but more for the casual Orioles fan. His pieces was full of information about the off season and I think that's what he was going for.

It's kinda like when I go on the radio. I doubt there is much I'm going to say on there that I haven't already said on here. You guys are incredibly informed because this place is full of super informed knowledgeable fans that crowd source information meaning we rarely miss information about the Orioles.

That's honestly pretty powerful and why many in the warehouse used to read the Hangout.

 

[Tony-OH]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand why people keep saying that the O’s already have written off Stowers.   I don’t see any sign of that at all.   The O’s had three healthy, fairly productive outfielders all last year.  We all agree Stowers could have played more once Mancini was traded and had some at bats taken away by Aguilar and Phillips, but honestly, it wasn’t that drastic.   Being cautious with Stowers is not the same thing as writing him off.   

As of right now, Stowers has everyday PAs available between corner outfield and DH unless the Orioles keep Diaz on the roster or acquire another left-handed bat that fits in that DH spot in addition to 1B or corner outfield.

I'm not convinced though that they feel Stowers is an everyday guy with the way they treated him last year when they promoted him. It was an absolute slap to his face that they would go out and acquire a washed up right-handed DH to take some PAs away from him last year.

Then they talk about needing to add a left-handed bat all off season (which I do agree with as long as it's a legitimate MOO bat that probably fits well at 1B) while picking up 26th man left-handed bat options in Diaz and O'Hearn.

So in one way, I can see why people think the Orioles are not on Stowers as much as some us may be, but sayin that, I do think as of now he has everyday PAs available going into 2023.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It appears your issue is with him saying " last hope of a legitimately improved roster for 2023" and not mentioning the improvement of the young players or the potential addition of prospects.

While I understand where you are coming from, I don't necessarily believe that what Connolly was going for with that comment.

Like many of us on here, we don't believe Elias has legitimately improved the roster for 2023 with his additions of Frazier, Gibson, McCann, Givens and the random waiver wire types he's been adding and subtracting. Now, I realize you and some others don't agree with that, and that's fine as it's worthy conversation, but I think what Connolly was going for was outside addition that were going to legitimately improve the roster for 2023.

Also, I'd like to say it's tough getting information now with the Elias run organization. In the past, many of us including Connolly had many source, but most of them have tried up and the newer folks are young or younger people who are less willing to talk in any kind of meaningful way.

Now, as I was cut off from the press box for the first time in 20+ years, I can't tell you how often Connolly was there last year and I don't know what "sources" if any Connolly has within the organization, but I'm sure he does still have outside organization sources as many of us still do as well.

Lastly, unless he's "breaking" news from sources, he's really not writing for the Hangout crowd but more for the casual Orioles fan. His pieces was full of information about the off season and I think that's what he was going for.

It's kinda like when I go on the radio. I doubt there is much I'm going to say on there that I haven't already said on here. You guys are incredibly informed because this place is full of super informed knowledgeable fans that crowd source information meaning we rarely miss information about the Orioles.

That's honestly pretty powerful and why many in the warehouse used to read the Hangout.

 

An improved roster is not the same as an improved team.  A team can improve with an unchanged roster. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

It appears your issue is with him saying " last hope of a legitimately improved roster for 2023" and not mentioning the improvement of the young players or the potential addition of prospects.

While I understand where you are coming from, I don't necessarily believe that what Connolly was going for with that comment.

Like many of us on here, we don't believe Elias has legitimately improved the roster for 2023 with his additions of Frazier, Gibson, McCann, Givens and the random waiver wire types he's been adding and subtracting. Now, I realize you and some others don't agree with that, and that's fine as it's worthy conversation, but I think what Connolly was going for was outside addition that were going to legitimately improve the roster for 2023.

Also, I'd like to say it's tough getting information now with the Elias run organization. In the past, many of us including Connolly had many source, but most of them have tried up and the newer folks are young or younger people who are less willing to talk in any kind of meaningful way.

Now, as I was cut off from the press box for the first time in 20+ years, I can't tell you how often Connolly was there last year and I don't know what "sources" if any Connolly has within the organization, but I'm sure he does still have outside organization sources as many of us still do as well.

Lastly, unless he's "breaking" news from sources, he's really not writing for the Hangout crowd but more for the casual Orioles fan. His pieces was full of information about the off season and I think that's what he was going for.

It's kinda like when I go on the radio. I doubt there is much I'm going to say on there that I haven't already said on here. You guys are incredibly informed because this place is full of super informed knowledgeable fans that crowd source information meaning we rarely miss information about the Orioles.

That's honestly pretty powerful and why many in the warehouse used to read the Hangout.

 

The O's are a development organization and that is where they have gotten most of their improved play.   That is where most of their improved play is projected to come from in the near and longer term future.

The market went way high this off season.  I don't think most of us expected before the off season that the O's would spend 21m/yr for 3 years to a 34 year old Bassitt.   Or 4 years on Taillon.   Once Elias realize what he was dealing with he turned back to his youth instead of giving veterans dollars and years that they probably were not going to be able to justify.

Instead he filled holes with veterans.  Gibson for Lyles, Givens for Lopez, McCann for Chirinos, Frazier for Odor.   There should be some improvement there but most of the improvement will come from the young players.

Elias has never believed that the O's are a team that should be spending like the big spenders.   He has limits and building pitching development led by Holt ,who he believes in from their time with the Astros,  is how they will compete.  Kremer, Bradish, Wells, and Grayson are the out come of that development.  Seeing what Holt did with Lyles shows what they are thinking they can do bringing in former All-Star Gibson.

Voth, Watkins, and Baumann  are depth for the rotation with Hall as a possible  future star.  Former All-Star Means will deepen the starters when he is ready in the 2nd half.

My point here is that the young guys are what is going to cause the improvement in the team both in the pitching staff and the position players.   For Connelly to report on the O's  for all these years and then put out an article that says that trading for a starter is the only hope to improve the team is madding.

1) Its not true.

2) It ignores all the other players that can provide improvement.

He should have a better feel for the direction of the team than that.  I have liked Dan in the past and probably will in the future.   But his perspective on where the team is and is going let me down this time.  I guess I expect more for my dollar.

Edited January 7, 2023 by wildcard

[yark14]

Great analysis @wildcard.  Our improvement will come from the young players.  The focus needs to be locking them up long-term rather than throwing money at 30+ year olds that might give us 2-3 good years at best.