ESPN Top 100

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would agree there. The defense alone should make it better.  But I don’t think Atkins blocked anyone, so that could make this worse.

Blocking a guy for a year isn’t the worst thing that can happen.  I don’t like it, but it’s not going to derail anything. Don Baylor survived it.   

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not another argument about Frazier…

It would be interesting to go back and look at how top 100 guys have done over the last decade or so.  I’ve seen some research in the past, but my sense is that evaluations have gotten more sophisticated in the last 10 years, like everything else in MLB.  Frazier, FWIW, was never rated in the top 100, but ranks 19th in rWAR among all major league players who debuted in 2016.   

I looked around and found this study, which in summary shows the following average total career fWAR’s for top BA prospects:

1-20: 18

21-40: 9

41-60: 7

61-80: 6

81-100: 6

So, you’d expect a guy like Westburg to have a 6 WAR career.   I know we all get excited when our players are on these lists, but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to become future stars.  Obviously some do; so do some guys who don’t make these lists.   Frazier has already had a better career than most guys ranked in the 21-40 range, even though he was never listed.  

[Can_of_corn]

That shows how little variance there is in the projected quality of the players as you go down the list.  Essentially a rounding error from 41-100.

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That shows how little variance there is in the projected quality of the players as you go down the list.  Essentially a rounding error from 41-100.

Reading further in that study, the average drops off dramatically after 60 if you isolate hitters:

1-20: 19

21-40: 8

41-60: 9

61-80: 4

81-100: 5

On the other hand, only 25.6% of the hitters in range 61-80 reached that 4 fWAR average, so you have a few big success stories off-setting a lot of failures. Hopefully Westburg is one of the successes.

[Pickles]

Look, everybody likes our prospects and Westburg, but if you look at the probabilities there's a less than 50% chance Westburg ever turns into a major league regular, and it is even lower if you confine it to just next year.

The idea that he's being "blocked" is wildly overstated.

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Westburg makes every list, and both McDaniel and Law thinks he plays 55 defense at 2B. 

So does anyone want to tell me again why Frazier was needed at $8 million? Never mind, no need to redo that argument, and while I don't think we have enough playing time to show Westburg as a plus defender at 2B, I do think he can be average there and his bat is ready.

We should be discussion the excitement of having him at 2B on opening day rather than watching his AAA at bats pile up while a 31-year old slow, slap hitting second baseman gets his major league PAs. 

The Urias knee injury at the end of last season. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Urias knee injury at the end of last season. 

It's your theory.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Blocking a guy for a year isn’t the worst thing that can happen.  I don’t like it, but it’s not going to derail anything. Don Baylor survived it.   

Lol these arguments are just…so bad.

Maybe we should send Adley down. I mean, it won’t hurt anything, right?

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Look, everybody likes our prospects and Westburg, but if you look at the probabilities there's a less than 50% chance Westburg ever turns into a major league regular, and it is even lower if you confine it to just next year.

The idea that he's being "blocked" is wildly overstated.

It’s an unquestioned fact that he is being blocked. It’s disingenuous to say otherwise.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol these arguments are just…so bad.

Maybe we should send Adley down. I mean, it won’t hurt anything, right?

Get that year of service time back he stole from the team and the fans!

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s an unquestioned fact that he is being blocked. It’s disingenuous to say otherwise.

Well, define being blocked.

If Frazier is a better player than him- wll within the realm of possibility- is he being blocked?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, define being blocked.

If Frazier is a better player than him- wll within the realm of possibility- is he being blocked?

Frazier is making 8M (10-15% of the payroll) on a team owned by an owner that is cheap as hell. He is 100% getting 450 or more at bats even if he struggles at the plate because his defense will be “good enough. (this is assuming health)

He is definitely taking at bats away from Westburg, who should be the starting second baseman on day 1.

The organization should have made it a priority to make sure Westburg starts everyday in the majors in and they should have paved the way for Ortiz.

They did neither. That’s a failure on their part.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol these arguments are just…so bad.

Maybe we should send Adley down. I mean, it won’t hurt anything, right?

Who’s making an argument?   I already voted that I didn’t like the Frazier acquisition because I didn’t like the strategic fit.  I’m just saying, it’s not the end of the world if guys like Westburg and Ortiz debut later than they would if Frazier wasn’t on the team.  On a scale of 1 to 10 (the Chris Davis signing being a 10 on the scale of horrible decisions), I’d rate this about a 2.5.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

Who’s making an argument?   I already voted that I didn’t like the Frazier acquisition because I didn’t like the strategic fit.  I’m just saying, it’s not the end of the world if guys like Westburg and Ortiz debut later than they would if Frazier wasn’t on the team.  On a scale of 1 to 10 (the Chris Davis signing being a 10 on the scale of horrible decisions), I’d rate this about a 2.5.   

The Baylor argument you mentioned. It’s just horrible. 

It’s like, well it’s ok that we blocked a ML ready, top 75 prospect because it didn’t do a guy harm 50 years ago!!!
 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Look, everybody likes our prospects and Westburg, but if you look at the probabilities there's a less than 50% chance Westburg ever turns into a major league regular, and it is even lower if you confine it to just next year.

The idea that he's being "blocked" is wildly overstated.

Like many I am not a fan of the move, but I am also in agreement that he isn't going to block Westburg or anyone else for very long.  The idea that he is being "blocked" is overstated.  I agree.  But not near as overstated as the idea that holding this opinion makes you a fanboy of the GM.

I consider him an insurance policy.  At $8M, it's more than I would have done, but I have no real heart ache over it and think it's just as likely that those that think it's such a horrible move are simply crying over the fact that the "lift off" move did not occur.

The Orioles may make the playoffs or they may not.  I will judge the season based on if they do.  And will judge the GM on the same criteria.

Either way, other than depth, I don't see Frazier being a tremendous impact either way on the playoffs.  He could play well and be out of the line up by May...he could play pretty poorly and be in the lineup all year.  I think there are multiple outcomes regardless of how he does.  I do not see him as a definite lock simply because he got $8M.

Why?  Because the Orioles have 11 people on various top 100 lists. (to recenter to the topic at hand...lol)