Mixed feelings about the offseason thus far

[Frobby]

I am seeing a player more like 260/320/360 with poor defense and average speed. His contact rate should decrease along with his gap power, which will enable pitchers to go at him a bit more directly . . . lowering his walk rate. Historically, almost to a fault, a second baseman is useless at age 35. Yes, second basemen fall apart.

I certainly agree that there are plenty of examples of 2B who fell apart at or before age 35. But what about Ray Durham, Jeff Kent, Craig Biggio and even Mark Grudzielanek?

My point is not that the odds are in favor of Roberts still being an all-star in 2013. My point is that Roberts has a very long way to slip before "DFA worthy" enters the conversation. I doubt even SG would go that far.

[Lucky Jim]

I am seeing a player more like 260/320/360 with poor defense and average speed. His contact rate should decrease along with his gap power, which will enable pitchers to go at him a bit more directly . . . lowering his walk rate. Historically, almost to a fault, a second baseman is useless at age 35. Yes, second basemen fall apart.

I mean it. If he does not have a 10MM number to his name that year, he will see sparse time in the majors and primarily because folks will remember what he use to be.

Eh. It seems to me that you're reading historical trends as prescriptive.

[Sports Guy]

I certainly agree that there are plenty of examples of 2B who fell apart at or before age 35. But what about Ray Durham, Jeff Kent, Craig Biggio and even Mark Grudzielanek?

My point is not that the odds are in favor of Roberts still being an all-star in 2013. My point is that Roberts has a very long way to slip before "DFA worthy" enters the conversation. I doubt even SG would go that far.

Would I make it a stone cold prediction? No, I wouldn't.

But right now, I would say it is far more likely he is as bad crawdad says than him even being a league average second baseman.

[Dipper9]

I love the Hangout. I love most of the posters and feel like I know you all personally. That said, the general feeling on this website that once a player hits 30 years old they suddenly begin to suck astounds me! I wish I could just ignore these comments, but for some reason I can't. That is an issue I will have to work on, because obviously the mindset of most of the OH will not change.

[Sports Guy]

I love the Hangout. I love most of the posters and feel like I know you all personally. That said, the general feeling on this website that once a player hits 30 years old they suddenly begin to suck astounds me! I wish I could just ignore these comments, but for some reason I can't. That is an issue I will have to work on, because obviously the mindset of most of the OH will not change.

Its not a mindset persay...Its just the reality of the sport...Players peak at 27 and start to decline when they are in their early 30s.

There are always exceptions and you have to take it on a case by case basis quite often but it is all about playing the percentages...What is the most likely outcome?

[Sports Guy]

So, it will always be a monsterous mistake to sign him for Signing Huff to a 2/20 or 3/25-27 extension from 2010-2012 or 2013 IYO? OK, I stand corrected.

Now I just think you're wrong. This could very well end up being a good move for us. I don't think Huff will repeat his numbers from last year, but your statement will look might bad if he does. I think your statement will look bad if he just produces to an 850+ OPS this year which is probably 50/50 odds.

How will it make me look bad if he produces to an 850 OPS in 2009, when we are discussing what he will do for the 2-3 years after that?

[Sports Guy]

So, if he produces an 850+ OPS this year, you predict he'll fall HOW FAR in 2010? 2011? 2012?

Are parts of the man going to start falling off due to age?

Lets just say that i am going to be realistic about what a player, in his low to mid 30s and with old player skills, is likely to produce.

All of the sophisticated projection systems agree with me about where Huff will be this coming year and it isn't likely to get better from there.

And with good drafting, I absolutely believe the draft picks will be worth more than a 33-35 year old BRob.

[crawdad]

Eh. It seems to me that you're reading historical trends as prescriptive.

No, I think I have been quite consistent with what I regard of Roberts and where he might be heading production-wise. Maybe I am loose with the language, but when I say Roberts will be DFA worthy . . . I am making a PREDICTION. Predictions are not prescriptions. Predictions give you a handle on what might happen and whether there is prohibitive risk or incredible benefit to making a move.

Frobby brought up Grudz, Biggio, Kent, and Durham. Now, I can go through and come up with 40 times more examples of 2B falling apart. Yes, Roberts may be different and special and wonderful . . . but in a generalistic sense, I do not see that as probable. Are there unifying characteristics of these four players that make them special with respect to the dozens of other All Star quality second basemen that fail? Does Roberts share these characteristics? Without being able to come up with some unifying hypothesis and attach Roberts to it . . . I think people are wishing on stars. It just is not credible to suggest Roberts will age otherwise when the overwhelming trend suggests a precipitous decrease in performance. The defensive data supports this and the offensive data supports this.

To humor . . . what could unify these guys? I don't know.

Biggio? Biggio fell off after his age 32 season. His talent and skill levels at his peak exceed Roberts. Biggio is a HOF . . . Roberts is not. If Roberts saw the same drop . . . he would be at replacement or below. Biggio also typically played with about 15 pounds more than Roberts. Larger guy.

Grudz? A good bit larger than Roberts. Was able to be a very average player for a long while. He kind of fits my hypothesis that larger, more athletic SS will age slightly better than 2B.

Ray Durham? He has aged well. He also has a thicker, lower center of gravity than Roberts. Durham bucks the trend as a true 2B who ages well.

Kent? Another big guy like Grudz. Similar to Grudz . . . I doubt they serve as good comparisons.

So, to review, Biggio fits the rule of second basemen falling apart. Grudz and Kent are large second basemen and do not really have the same issues that a smaller second baseman has in my opinion. Ray Durham bucks the trend. Maybe Roberts is like Ray Durham, but I doubt it. Adam Loewen could be like Babe Ruth . . . I doubt that too. Exceptions are not really good evidence to rely upon when you are trying to extrapolate what will occur. They help letting you know what is possible, but I would be more interested in the mean +/- 1 or 2 standard deviations . . . not the outliers.

[Sports Guy]

No, I think I have been quite consistent with what I regard of Roberts and where he might be heading production-wise. Maybe I am loose with the language, but when I say Roberts will be DFA worthy . . . I am making a PREDICTION. Predictions are not prescriptions. Predictions give you a handle on what might happen and whether there is prohibitive risk or incredible benefit to making a move.

Frobby brought up Grudz, Biggio, Kent, and Durham. Now, I can go through and come up with 40 times more examples of 2B falling apart. Yes, Roberts may be different and special and wonderful . . . but in a generalistic sense, I do not see that as probable. Are there unifying characteristics of these four players that make them special with respect to the dozens of other All Star quality second basemen that fail? Does Roberts share these characteristics? Without being able to come up with some unifying hypothesis and attach Roberts to it . . . I think people are wishing on stars. It just is not credible to suggest Roberts will age otherwise when the overwhelming trend suggests a precipitous decrease in performance. The defensive data supports this and the offensive data supports this.

To humor . . . what could unify these guys? I don't know.

Biggio? Biggio fell off after his age 32 season. His talent and skill levels at his peak exceed Roberts. Biggio is a HOF . . . Roberts is not. If Roberts saw the same drop . . . he would be at replacement or below. Biggio also typically played with about 15 pounds more than Roberts. Larger guy.

Grudz? A good bit larger than Roberts. Was able to be a very average player for a long while. He kind of fits my hypothesis that larger, more athletic SS will age slightly better than 2B.

Ray Durham? He has aged well. He also has a thicker, lower center of gravity than Roberts. Durham bucks the trend as a true 2B who ages well.

Kent? Another big guy like Grudz. Similar to Grudz . . . I doubt they serve as good comparisons.

So, to review, Biggio fits the rule of second basemen falling apart. Grudz and Kent are large second basemen and do not really have the same issues that a smaller second baseman has in my opinion. Ray Durham bucks the trend. Maybe Roberts is like Ray Durham, but I doubt it. Adam Loewen could be like Babe Ruth . . . I doubt that too. Exceptions are not really good evidence to rely upon when you are trying to extrapolate what will occur. They help letting you know what is possible, but I would be more interested in the mean +/- 1 or 2 standard deviations . . . not the outliers.

Just to further this....I refer you all to Craw and Stotle's site and the positional defensive analysis(good article...worth reading):

http://camdendepot.com/analysis_infield_age_curves.html

Remember, we are talking about BRob's ALL AROUND value here, not just offense, not just speed and not just defense.

[Frobby]

Lets just say that i am going to be realistic about what a player, in his low to mid 30s and with old player skills, is likely to produce.

All of the sophisticated projection systems agree with me about where Huff will be this coming year and it isn't likely to get better from there.

And with good drafting, I absolutely believe the draft picks will be worth more than a 33-35 year old BRob.

I think you are trying to have it both ways here. I would bet you that, statistically, the odds that two picks between #16 and #80 will yield at least one solid major league player are actually pretty low. But you avoid that by saying we'll do better than a 33-35 year old BRob with "good drafting." Yet at the same time you're making assumptions about BRob's performance at ages 33-35 based on what "typically" happens to 2B at that age.

As to Huff, if I had to bet on what his overall OPS will be at ages 33 - 35, I'd bet right around .800. For this year I'd bet .840 but it could be 60-70 points off either way.

[Sports Guy]

I think you are trying to have it both ways here. I would bet you that, statistically, the odds that two picks between #16 and #80 will yield at least one solid major league player are actually pretty low. But you avoid that by saying we'll do better than a 33-35 year old BRob with "good drafting." Yet at the same time you're making assumptions about BRob's performance at ages 33-35 based on what "typically" happens to 2B at that age.

As to Huff, if I had to bet on what his overall OPS will be at ages 33 - 35, I'd bet right around .800. For this year I'd bet .840 but it could be 60-70 points off either way.

No I'm not...I have been very clearly and consistent with what I am saying...I would much rather have 2 picks than extend BRob..Extending him is a mistake and it will hurt us if the deal is anything longer than 2 years, starting in 2010.

[crawdad]

I think you are trying to have it both ways here. I would bet you that, statistically, the odds that two picks between #16 and #80 will yield at least one solid major league player are actually pretty low. But you avoid that by saying we'll do better than a 33-35 year old BRob with "good drafting." Yet at the same time you're making assumptions about BRob's performance at ages 33-35 based on what "typically" happens to 2B at that age.

As to Huff, if I had to bet on what his overall OPS will be at ages 33 - 35, I'd bet right around .800. For this year I'd bet .840 but it could be 60-70 points off either way.

Well, just looking at a typical draft pick compensation. If the team that signs your player is in the bottom half of the draft, you have 63% chance of a single player who makes it to the Majors and a 13% chance you wind up with two MLB guys. If a team with a protected pick signs a type A player, you have a 51% chance to have a player who makes it to the majors and a 9% chance they both do.

This does not consider what one does with the money saved from not resigning the player. I assume that Roberts will have little business being in the Majors at age 35 . . . so I would say you have about a 50-60% chance of having someone rather comparable at some position. Also, you could probably find a one year rental better than a replacement level 2B.

I hate citing my own stuff, but the numbers come from this article:

http://camdendepot.com/analysis_compensation_picks_vs_trades.html

Of course, that used Dunn as an example. Ooops. I did not see the market falling apart. So yeah, the qualification is that someone will have to want Roberts enough to punt the picks.

[Lucky Jim]

They might, but if you believe the draft picks are the better bet than you need to go look at the flame-out statistics for high draft picks IMO. It doesn't matter how well you draft, everyone drafted after the first 15 or so picks in the draft has a better chance of never seeing the major leagues than they do of producing like Roberts from 2010 on.

We could end up with a pick at 40 and 120 if the Yanks sign him. That would be just lovely.

That's true. But generally speaking, more picks allows more diversity of risk, allows a potentially enormous upside. I'm not sure the value of an extra pick in the draft is necessarily linear or that it should be looked at from a simple probabilistic viewpoint.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, just looking at a typical draft pick compensation. If the team that signs your player is in the bottom half of the draft, you have 63% chance of a single player who makes it to the Majors and a 13% chance you wind up with two MLB guys. If a team with a protected pick signs a type A player, you have a 51% chance to have a player who makes it to the majors and a 9% chance they both do.

This does not consider what one does with the money saved from not resigning the player. I assume that Roberts will have little business being in the Majors at age 35 . . . so I would say you have about a 50-60% chance of having someone rather comparable at some position. Also, you could probably find a one year rental better than a replacement level 2B.

I hate citing my own stuff, but the numbers come from this article:

http://camdendepot.com/analysis_compensation_picks_vs_trades.html

Of course, that used Dunn as an example. Ooops. I did not see the market falling apart. So yeah, the qualification is that someone will have to want Roberts enough to punt the picks.

Very interesting.

[Sports Guy]

They might, but if you believe the draft picks are the better bet than you need to go look at the flame-out statistics for high draft picks IMO. It doesn't matter how well you draft, everyone drafted after the first 15 or so picks in the draft has a better chance of never seeing the major leagues than they do of producing like Roberts from 2010 on.

We could end up with a pick at 40 and 120 if the Yanks sign him. That would be just lovely.

Still better than paying a below average player 10+ million a year for 3-4 years.