Mixed feelings about the offseason thus far

[crawdad]

I agree completely.

It is inconsistent to go with the "median" projection for Roberts, but expect to far outpace the "median" projection with those two draft picks.

I think Sports Guy is overstating his case, but I think with good drafting you should have a middle infielder ready to take over with at least replacement level value. You can also do this with MiL FA pickups. Honestly, Donnie Murphy is a RL second baseman. So, yes, an overall draft and FA strategy should produce a 2B as valuable or more valuable than a second baseman who is likely to be around replacement level at age 35. It is not that the draft picks specifically received will result in that player, but that the process enables a team to increase the odds of finding worthwhile players.

[Frobby]

Well, just looking at a typical draft pick compensation. If the team that signs your player is in the bottom half of the draft, you have 63% chance of a single player who makes it to the Majors and a 13% chance you wind up with two MLB guys. If a team with a protected pick signs a type A player, you have a 51% chance to have a player who makes it to the majors and a 9% chance they both do.

This does not consider what one does with the money saved from not resigning the player. I assume that Roberts will have little business being in the Majors at age 35 . . . so I would say you have about a 50-60% chance of having someone rather comparable at some position. Also, you could probably find a one year rental better than a replacement level 2B.

I hate citing my own stuff, but the numbers come from this article:

http://camdendepot.com/analysis_compensation_picks_vs_trades.html

Of course, that used Dunn as an example. Ooops. I did not see the market falling apart. So yeah, the qualification is that someone will have to want Roberts enough to punt the picks.

Why do you hate citing your own stuff, so long as it is well researched and not just speculative? Both this article and the one SG cited about defensive degradation with age are well done and thought provoking. The only thing I'm not clear about is the criterion of "making it to the majors." If I'm dumping BRob while he is still productive, I'm not interested in just a guy who will make it to the majors, I want a guy who has a reasonable shot at being a starter, at least. The fact that BRob is expected to be marginal at age 35 doesn't change the fact that he isn't likely to be "marginal" in 2009 (or, I'd submit, 2010 and 2011 at least).

I wish I knew more about degradation trends at 2B. It's kind of counterinstinctive to me that there is so much attrition there.

[crawdad]

I'm betting you are neglecting to mention that this assumes that the team in the bottom half doesn't sign a higher rated pick/s thereby relegating your pick to the 2nd or 3rd or 4th round. If he goes to a team like the Yanks, the chances are pretty good that would be the case.

I'm also betting "makes the majors" is had a day on a ML roster. Eli Whiteside had days on our ML roster. I don't think that helped us much. Do you?

I think "makes the majors" isn't what we should be looking at.

I'm going to go to your site (your stuff is very intelligent) and look, but I wonder if you've ever done that analysis with a baseline like wins above replacement or some other cumulative metrice. I'd bet that percentage would drop precipitously if you selected something like 10 wins before FA (first 6 years on 25 man roster).

Well, I mention what happens if it gets shoved to the second round. Of course, chances drop if it goes further than that. This is plainly obvious. It is also unlikely that many teams do the multiple pick and looking at next season's type A list . . . we will probably be the worst team with a type A, so we trump everyone else. I think you brought up a good point, but it is not all together applicable in this particular scenario.

Making it to the Majors was defined as one complete season in the Majors (1 year of service time not 1 day), which is typically not allotted to very poor players. This was the easiest way I could do it with respect to what I was trying to study, which was connecting qualitative grades of prospects in trade against qualitative grades of drafted players. With markets costantly in flux, I thought going back 10 years (to get folks with 6 years of playing time in the majors) was more trouble than it was worth and not exactly as relevant as this short hand method.

[Sports Guy]

First, I'm not advocating 4 years so don't skew my argument

Jesus, here we go again...I said 3-4 years...BRob wants 4 years, so we have to mention 4 years when discussing if we extend him or not.

Second, he wouldn't be below average for all three years. So, that statement also skews the argument.

You are right...He won'y be below average in 2010...But my comment was based on what type of player he would be for the life of the extension.

[crawdad]

Why do you hate citing your own stuff, so long as it is well researched and not just speculative? Both this article and the one SG cited about defensive degradation with age are well done and thought provoking. The only thing I'm not clear about is the criterion of "making it to the majors." If I'm dumping BRob while he is still productive, I'm not interested in just a guy who will make it to the majors, I want a guy who has a reasonable shot at being a starter, at least. The fact that BRob is expected to be marginal at age 35 doesn't change the fact that he isn't likely to be "marginal" in 2009 (or, I'd submit, 2010 and 2011 at least).

I wish I knew more about degradation trends at 2B. It's kind of counterinstinctive to me that there is so much attrition there.

I am a toxicologist. I prefer other people citing my work as it makes it seem more plausible than me just tooting my own horn. It carries over into this hobby writing.

I agree that Roberts will not be marginal in 2009 and most likely not in 2010. In 2011, I see that as a danger year. I see the same for 2012. 2013 just looks like it is almost a guaranty that he will be about replacement level. Now, this is just a prediction . . . not a proclamation of certainty. It just is not something I would like to bet 1/12th of my payroll on. I think we get good value in '09 and '10 . . . which might be lost seasons because we do not have the guys ready to step up. If I did not see 2011-2013 as such a danger period . . . I would be more inclined to reup. There is just not a lot of good news for second basemen in that area. Roberts is small and is a gym rat, but are gym rats really all that rare? I mean, at least a tenth of second basemen are gym rats . . . probably more as it is a difficult position to stick at. So much of it is built upon speed and range. I just wonder if Roberts is really all that special enough to think his gym rattiness is above and beyond others' gym rattiness.

[crawdad]

FYI, this isn't the criteria according to COTs. It isn't the record of the team losing the FA. It is the rating of the FA himself as determined by Elias. I'm not saying COTs is right, but that is what it says.

If a club signs multiple free agents within the same category, its earlier pick goes to the team that lost the higher-rated player.

Look at exceptions under FA compensation.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2003/01/transactions-glossary.html

Oh right. I forgot. They changed that in the last CBA, didn't they?

Good pick up.

[El Gordo]

FYI, this isn't the criteria according to COTs. It isn't the record of the team losing the FA. It is the rating of the FA himself as determined by Elias. I'm not saying COTs is right, but that is what it says.

If a club signs multiple free agents within the same category, its earlier pick goes to the team that lost the higher-rated player.

Look at exceptions under FA compensation.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2003/01/transactions-glossary.html

This is what happened to MIL when the Yankees signed Tex I believe. He is ranked just a tad higher than CC.

[Singleton]

I think the "scarcity" of FA money is being greatly oversold by the media and bought buy the masses. The scarcity of FA money is for 2nd tier players for the most part. The top players at a position still got great money this year UNLESS they had a major negative.

Ask CC, Tex, AJ, Milton Bradley, Dempster, Farnsworth, Fuentes, Furcal, Ibanez, Blake, Marte, Moyer, Renteria, KRod, Juan Rivera, Randy Johnson, and Kerry Wood about how BAD this year's free agent market has been. These guys have all gotten very good money.

There are two middle relievers in that list that got 4 mil plus for 2 or 3 years.

There are three closers that got 10+ mil for multiple years.

35 year old Casey Blake just got 3/17.5 mil for goodness sake.

36 year old Raul Ibanez just got 3/31.5 to play the outfield for a team with no DH. LOL

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents?season=2008

The reality is that there is still a ton of money being spent on players. The guys that haven't signed merely WAY overjudged their value and have now lost money than they should have simply because so many players have signed. Also, most of the guys that are very good and still haven't signed have major question marks associated with them (Manny, Dunn, Abreu, O Cabrera).

Only Hudson and Lowe are guys that I thought would go for quite a bit that haven't signed already and Lowe is about to get his money and then some. I am surprised about Hudson though.

I don't think a 3/30 deal for Roberts from 2010-2012 is a bad deal at all. We just disagree.

The fact that some guys got contracts for a lot of money doesn't mean that the overall market hasn't changed. The right comparison would be to compare the FA market this year to the market last year and the year before for similar players.

Carlos Silva got almost $9 mil a year last year. You think Jon Garland will see that?

Put this year's Ibanez deal ($10 mil per) in perspective by looking at how Andrew Jones got $18 million per year last year after hitting .222 with a OBP just a shade over .300.

You can call Manny, Dunn, Abreu, Odog, Garland, O Perez flawed if you like. I suppose they are but in almost any other year they'd be flawed and rich with multi year deals.

The stock market is down 40%, the economy is in a deep recession. Owners almost certainly lost money with their other investments. There's no way that doesn't impact the free agent market.

Even if you are right and owners really are just making excuses to cheap out it really doesn't matter. It will be hard to argue that Brob is worth $30 mil for 3 years if Orlando Hudson signs a 1 or 2 year deal for $6 mil per.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with this statement, but I'll be very surprised if Hudson signs a deal for that amount. As a matter of fact, if he signs a deal for that amount, I'll truly start wondering what is going on with Orlando Hudson that the behind-the-scenes people know that the rest of us don't.

You really think Orlando Hudson is going to get a smaller contract than Casey Blake on the merits? From what I've read, Hudson was asking for crazy money (like 12-15 mil per for 5+ years depending on the report) and that scared off most of his suitors.

Time will tell

There is a lot of money being spent this offseason by some teams. There are just less teams overall spending money. This is why the depth of the FA spending is lower. The haves are still spending it like crazy though.

If Roberts becomes a FA, we'll see how much the Chicago Cubs, NYM, NYY, and/or LAD throw at him (assuming he stays healthy and plays well again this year). I think he'll get at least 3/27 and probably more. Again, time will tell.

But what does it take for BRob to extend with a pathetic, horrible organization like ours? Sounds like 4/48ish.

[Frobby]

But what does it take for BRob to extend with a pathetic, horrible organization like ours? Sounds like 4/48ish.

Well, if that's what it takes, it's sayonara. He'll be in pinstripes.

I'd probably be willing to pay Roberts a bit more than I'd pay some other 2B who was the exact same age with the same stats, because he's a known quantity who is well-loved by the fans and a good guy. But not 4/$48 in this environment.

[Brady9Fan]

Can't say this offseason has impressed me a bit. Besides parting with some dead weight, what exactly has the team done to wow fans & help ticket prices? Nothing.

Not signing Tex for the big bucks is understandable...but there are other players out there who should have deserved a shot at least. Burrell was a steal for Tampa Bay, and what about Nady & Swisher? Say what you will about Swisher, but make an attempt at something...don't just sit in the back and wait for things.

And I'm tired of hearing about the O's being a small market/medium market team. Where's the Angelos who spent $$$ in '96 & '97 that got us in the playoffs? All that MASN money, & we sign IZ-whathisname as a shortstop? Wow.

Don't go after Sheets if you are questioning his health, but how about a pitcher who's lifetime record is better than Cabrera...if Cabrera has a breakout season in Washington, no one will be surprised. Bound to happen. I'm sure AM's hands are tied, but come on Petey, do something. At least make the roster look more exciting...don't even spend a quarter of what the Yanks did, but make the fans feel like you realize you own a baseball team.

[Stotle]

They might, but if you believe the draft picks are the better bet than you need to go look at the flame-out statistics for high draft picks IMO. It doesn't matter how well you draft, everyone drafted after the first 15 or so picks in the draft has a better chance of never seeing the major leagues than they do of producing like Roberts from 2010 on.

We could end up with a pick at 40 and 120 if the Yanks sign him. That would be just lovely.

Among other potential issues, this assumes that the top 15 players in the draft go in the top 15 picks. It also ignores differences in draft classes. Not the central issue, but there are clear tactics for managing risk in the draft that allow you to select relatively (to the draft class as a whole) safe ML contributors at various stages of the draft.

[Stotle]

Can't say this offseason has impressed me a bit. Besides parting with some dead weight, what exactly has the team done to wow fans & help ticket prices? Nothing.

Not signing Tex for the big bucks is understandable...but there are other players out there who should have deserved a shot at least. Burrell was a steal for Tampa Bay, and what about Nady & Swisher? Say what you will about Swisher, but make an attempt at something...don't just sit in the back and wait for things.

And I'm tired of hearing about the O's being a small market/medium market team. Where's the Angelos who spent $$$ in '96 & '97 that got us in the playoffs? All that MASN money, & we sign IZ-whathisname as a shortstop? Wow.

Don't go after Sheets if you are questioning his health, but how about a pitcher who's lifetime record is better than Cabrera...if Cabrera has a breakout season in Washington, no one will be surprised. Bound to happen. I'm sure AM's hands are tied, but come on Petey, do something. At least make the roster look more exciting...don't even spend a quarter of what the Yanks did, but make the fans feel like you realize you own a baseball team.

While I understand that fans care about this, I'd be upset if the front office was using it as a measuring stick for judging their moves.

[waroriole]

This is what happened to MIL when the Yankees signed Tex I believe. He is ranked just a tad higher than CC.

I could be wrong, but I believe Sabathia was rated higher than Tex. Sorry, no link to back this up, just remember reading it on here when I asked the question of how the FA draft pick forfeit works.

[Stotle]

I could be wrong, but I believe Sabathia was rated higher than Tex. Sorry, no link to back this up, just remember reading it on here when I asked the question of how the FA draft pick forfeit works.

Teix ranked higher. MIL's pick dropped.