Keith Law’s O’s top 20

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Understood. From now on I'll make sure to specify in all of my posts in Keith Law threads that I'm not specifically referring to you.

lol, fair enough! But in defense of Law, I doubt he does that either. 

[Ohfan67]

All of these lists are pretty amazing to me. The depth in the O's minor league system is mind blowing compared to where it was a few years ago. It's pretty fun to compare the talent and potential of say the guys ranked 10-20 now to the players ranked 10-20 five or ten years ago. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

All of these lists are pretty amazing to me. The depth in the O's minor league system is mind blowing compared to where it was a few years ago. It's pretty fun to compare the talent and potential of say the guys ranked 10-20 now to the players ranked 10-20 five or ten years ago. 

Well when you suck for a long time, don’t sign FAs that cost you picks and have an ability to develop players, things can change very fast.

That said, let’s not forget where the team was around 2009, when they were highly rated and ending with a large crop of players that they developed and helped lead the 2012-2016 teams.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well when you suck for a long time, don’t sign FAs that cost you picks and have an ability to develop players, things can change very fast.

That said, let’s not forget where the team was around 2009, when they were highly rated and ending with a large crop of players that they developed and helped lead the 2012-2016 teams.

This is a deeper group than that one, though that was a good group.  2009 debuts included Bergesen, Berken, D. Hernandez, Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Reimold and Justin Turner, not to mention Koji who was never really in our farm system.  Even with all those graduations we still had Arrieta and Britton in the system.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

This is a deeper group than that one, though that was a good group.  2009 debuts included Bergesen, Berken, D. Hernandez, Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Reimold and Justin Turner, not to mention Koji who was never really in our farm system.  Even with all those graduations we still had Arrieta and Britton in the system.  

And around this time we also had Manny and Schoop. Our minors did a good job of producing players not that long ago. I think we all tend to forget that.

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And around this time we also had Manny and Schoop. Our minors did a good job of producing players not that long ago. I think we all tend to forget that.

Sure, but the pipeline ran dry.  The Orioles peaked in 2014.  What new blood was infused in 2015, 2016, and 2017?

It looks to me like Mancini, Bundy, and Givens were the only notable additions from the farm over the 2015-2017 period.   Not nearly enough.

Of course, Hader and Davies among others were traded away.

Edited February 8, 2023 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And around this time we also had Manny and Schoop. Our minors did a good job of producing players not that long ago. I think we all tend to forget that.

A think the big difference is the impact of those players, While Manny and Britton at some point, and Schoop to a lesser extent were impact guys, the rest were at best average major leaguers though Wieters ha a few years of being better than average.

I think we are going to see many, many more of these guys coming out of this system as impact guys on playoff caliber teams and they will come in waves. 

Thanks to a string of 90+ loss season from 2024-2010, the team did build up a better farm system, but the best pitcher to be drafted (Arrieta) ended up being good elsewhere because they failed to develop him properly. 

So yes, the system wasn't barren, but no way that 2009 system (Machado was drafted in 2010) even close to this system.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And around this time we also had Manny and Schoop. Our minors did a good job of producing players not that long ago. I think we all tend to forget that.

MacPhail did a pretty nice job of filling the pipeline.  But I’d still say this is on a different level.  Of course, it took 4-5 years of being terrible and several future-looking trades to get here.  

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

MacPhail did a pretty nice job of filling the pipeline.  But I’d still say this is on a different level.  Of course, it took 4-5 years of being terrible and several future-looking trades to get here.  

How long did it take to get to 2012?

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How long did it take to get to 2012?

Obviously there were several fits and starts.  I’d say though that it took 4 years starting with the Bedard/Tejada sell-off in the 2007-08 offseason. Or you could date it back to the 2000 sell-off if you prefer.  

Edited February 8, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

MacPhail did a pretty nice job of filling the pipeline.  But I’d still say this is on a different level.  Of course, it took 4-5 years of being terrible and several future-looking trades to get here.  

The prospects now are better but better only matters if you win. This group has a lot of winning to go to top the older group.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The prospects now are better but better only matters if you win. This group has a lot of winning to go to top the older group.

No doubt.  But I’m hoping for better than one division title and two wild cards, and one postseason series win.  

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

No doubt.  But I’m hoping for better than one division title and two wild cards, and one postseason series win.  

Obviously

[Jammer7]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:47 PM, Frobby said:

This is a deeper group than that one, though that was a good group.  2009 debuts included Bergesen, Berken, D. Hernandez, Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Reimold and Justin Turner, not to mention Koji who was never really in our farm system.  Even with all those graduations we still had Arrieta and Britton in the system.  

I agree there were prospects in the Duquette era. Obviously, Dan had obstacles in his way in Baltimore that prevented him from replicating what he did in Montreal and Boston. I wonder how many of those you mentioned in this would be in the current top 30 for the Orioles if you ranked them just before their promotion to the Orioles?

Wieters - probably 2 behind Gunnar

Matusz - around where Rom is 20-25, at best

Arrieta - 20-25

Britton - 25-30

Tillman - maybe 25-30

Bergesen, Bergen, David Hernandez, Reimold and Turner off the list.

If the same development system was in place, I believe it would be vastly different. The scouts did bring in talent, and the list of failed high draft picks is long. Even among this list, most got better in the majors.

Machado - did not stay in the minors long enough to rise to quite where Gunnar is, but he would certainly be top 3-5 with Gunnar, Wieters, and maybe Grayson ahead of him. Not sure I would put Holliday in front of him, maybe.

Schoop - again, did not stay in minors long enough to gain higher prospect status. Maybe 15-20.

I did this based on memory, but I thought it was an interesting exercise.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I agree there were prospects in the Duquette era. Obviously, Dan had obstacles in his way in Baltimore that prevented him from replicating what he did in Montreal and Boston. I wonder how many of those you mentioned in this would be in the current top 30 for the Orioles if you ranked them just before their promotion to the Orioles?

Wieters - probably 2 behind Gunnar

Matusz - around where Rom is 20-25, at best

Arrieta - 20-25

Britton - 25-30

Tillman - maybe 25-30

Bergesen, Bergen, David Hernandez, Reimold and Turner off the list.

If the same development system was in place, I believe it would be vastly different. The scouts did bring in talent, and the list of failed high draft picks is long. Even among this list, most got better in the majors.

Machado - did not stay in the minors long enough to rise to quite where Gunnar is, but he would certainly be top 3-5 with Gunnar, Wieters, and maybe Grayson ahead of him. Not sure I would put Holliday in front of him, maybe.

Schoop - again, did not stay in minors long enough to gain higher prospect status. Maybe 15-20.

I did this based on memory, but I thought it was an interesting exercise.

No way those guys would be that low.