The Age Algorithm

[RZNJ]

This won’t be a surprise but I thought I’d mention it.   While age isn’t the main factor in the Orioles draft choices it certainly seems important.   Most HS draftees turn 18 before the actual draft.  Most college juniors turn 21 before the draft.   All of the Orioles #1 picks, fall into this category.  Rutschman and Kjerstad have February birthdays.  Cowser is in March.  Holliday turned 18 the December before the draft.   Many of their picks in the early rounds tend to have later birthdays.   Hernaiz turned 18 in August of his draft year.  Rhodes turned 21 in August of his draft year.   Same for Beavers.  Same for Wagner. Trimble in June.  Fabian turned 21 in September 2021 when the Orioles wanted him originally.   I don’t think the age stat is a line in the sand but it could explain part of the reason they passed on Jordan Lawlar.   Lawlar turned 19 in July of his draft year.  Anecdotally, Creed Willems turned 18 in June of the same draft year.    I’m certainly not comparing the two players.  Just showing what seems to be a preference.   Bobby Witt was another kid who turned 19 in June of his draft year.   There are certainly good players like that but I think the Orioles treat it like a red flag.
 

 

 

[Frobby]

I don’t know about red flag, but it’s certainly a factor to be considered, especially for the HS and Dominican guys.  

It doesn’t always work.  Rowell didn’t turn 18 until December of the year he was drafted.  
 

[Stotle]

This is built in to most analytics-driven draft models with teams. It's backed by a ton of data that younger players make bigger jumps (understandable in that as a broad rule there is more room for jumps in physique/strength). The corollary to that is that more physically mature players who are already demonstrating MLB-level, strength-based tools are less impacted by shorter "growth/physical maturity" window. So 1) I think you are spot on that Baltimore weighs age heavily in their model and 2) I think the teams that liked Lawlar (myself included) were less concerned about the age because of his present physical maturity. Hopefully that made some kind of sense. Good thoughts RZ.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Stotle said:

This is built in to most analytics-driven draft models with teams. It's backed by a ton of data that younger players make bigger jumps (understandable in that as a broad rule there is more room for jumps in physique/strength). The corollary to that is that more physically mature players who are already demonstrating MLB-level, strength-based tools are less impacted by shorter "growth/physical maturity" window. So 1) I think you are spot on that Baltimore weighs age heavily in their model and 2) I think the teams that liked Lawlar (myself included) were less concerned about the age because of his present physical maturity. Hopefully that made some kind of sense. Good thoughts RZ.

Any chance you can share some of your thoughts on the various guys in the pipeline?  How you line up/differ from Tony's takes in his top 75?  I recall enjoying your thoughts on the prospects in years gone by!

[ShoelesJoe]

Bobby Witt Jr was born June 14, 2000, chosen #2 in the 2019 draft.

Gunnar Henderson born June 29, 2001, picked at #42 in the same draft. 

Right now it's a toss-up (or maybe not) as to which of them will be more valuable going forward. But if Gunnar does have the better career a lot of people are going to be wondering if the teams that passed on him should have taken into account how young he was on draft day. It certainly appears the Orioles did just that. 

[Stotle]

On 2/9/2023 at 12:39 PM, btdart20 said:

Any chance you can share some of your thoughts on the various guys in the pipeline?  How you line up/differ from Tony's takes in his top 75?  I recall enjoying your thoughts on the prospects in years gone by!

You probably have better sources on here who have been following the O's system more closely (including Tony himself). I may be digging back into MiLB prospect coverage this year -- if I do I'll definitely be by to discuss O's stuff with all the folks here. It's always a good place for good O's convos.

 

[Stotle]

On 2/10/2023 at 12:48 AM, ShoelesJoe said:

Bobby Witt Jr was born June 14, 2000, chosen #2 in the 2019 draft.

Gunnar Henderson born June 29, 2001, picked at #42 in the same draft. 

Right now it's a toss-up (or maybe not) as to which of them will be more valuable going forward. But if Gunnar does have the better career a lot of people are going to be wondering if the teams that passed on him should have taken into account how young he was on draft day. It certainly appears the Orioles did just that. 

Henderson was a favorite of mine his draft year (he was actually the player I wrote up most highly from the Under Armor All-America Game that year at Wrigley, though he obviously wasn't the highest rated overall in that class for me when draft day came). Age in and of itself doesn't earn you points, but age with the right associated characteristics can definitely be a strong indicator the player is a strong helium candidate. I don't know it's reasonable to expect Henderson to go in the Top 10 in 2019, but there were definitely teams on him in the first round depending on who else was available. There were also folks lighter on Witt due to age, but he was so physically mature and his physical tools were strong enough that he wasn't dependent on any big jumps to become a MLB contributor. 

 

[RZNJ]

Baseball America had their staff make picks based on who they would take. Geoff Pontes took HS SS Walker Martin. Born 2/20/2004.   On MLB he’s actually rated #71 overall but he went 17 in this exercise.  A name I threw out there previously for #17 was Arjun Nimmala.  He’s also a HS who maybe has a higher ceiling but lower floor than Martin.  But, get this!

Nimmala, was born 10/16/2005.    That’s a 20 month difference between the two players.    How good was Martin 20 months ago or better yet how much better will Nimmala be 20 months from now?   Apparently, they’re very comparable right now.  MLB actually has Nimmala at 34.   The point is if it’s dead even or you even give Martin the edge now, those 20 months have to more than make up for that, especially for a physically projectable player like Nimmala.

That is all.