The Yankees

[Moose Milligan]

Well played, Sons of Sam Horn, well played indeed....

[OrangeJerseys]

Well played, Sons of Sam Horn, well played indeed....

Excellent.

[DrungoHazewood]

By the way, the Phillies were the third oldest team last season and the Sox right behind them. Just in case the issue of age comes up.

Age and team quality are generally positively correlated. That's because if you aren't any good you don't get to play into your 30s. You're selling insurance in Topeka by then. Good teams have less players who'll eventually sell insurance.

This has been accentuated in the free agency era because of the way the rules are set up. Most players aren't free agents until their late 20s or early 30s, so when they sign a long-term deal as a free agent their teams have some incentive to keep them around in their mid-30s over similar, younger players.

[Frobby]

It shouldn't really boggle your mind. Since 2001 they've made the post-season every year except one. That gives them a great shot to win a title. For various reasons they haven't gotten it done but since a hot team can take over a post-season (especially if they're pitching well) I think they've been doing just fine.

It's not fair to judge a team's success based on rings. If they can consistently make the post-season, they're doing something right.

I'm too lazy to do it, but I bet if you added up the total records of all MLB teams since the last time the Yankees were in the World Series, the Yankees would be comfortably on top. It's silly to say they've been horribly run because they "only" won 7 division titles in the last 8 years and went to the World Series twice. Could they have been run better? Yes, I'm sure, but they certainly have not been run horribly.

As to 2009, we'll see what age does to their lineup and how healthy their rotation will be. They'll certainly be in the mix for a playoff spot if Wang, Sabathia and Burnett all stay healthy in 2009.

[waroriole]

As to 2009, we'll see what age does to their lineup and how healthy their rotation will be. They'll certainly be in the mix for a playoff spot if Wang, Sabathia and Burnett all stay healthy in 2009.

I think the argument is that with their payroll they should be more than "in the mix for a playoff spot." They should be the odds-on favorite every time. Because they're not, the way their organization is being run is currently showing its lack of quality.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think the argument is that with their payroll they should be more than "in the mix for a playoff spot." They should be the odds-on favorite every time. Because they're not, the way their organization is being run is currently showing its lack of quality.

Almost every year for the last 15 (or thereabouts) the Yanks' projection has been to win 90+ games. That's about as well as you can hope any organization would do.

The only reason we don't see the 1995-2008 Yankees as an organization on par with the 1947-64 Yanks, the '22-'28 Yanks and the '36-'43 Yanks is the postseason and divisional format has changed. Under the old "win the regular season, go to the Series" format the recent Yanks probably would have been in over half of the World Series in the last 14 years. And they're almost there as it is.

[jiminnj]

It's hard for me to imagine this Yankee team winning less than about 85 games. Sure, they have some weaknesses on defense, but they'll score 850 or more runs.

If you get back to this older thread, I am curious as to why you feel they will score that many runs this year.

Last year they only scored 789 runs. They lost Giambi and Abreu, their number 2 and 3 best OPS players off of that team. I view adding Texiera and Swisher as about a wash. The rest of their regulars include 5 players where age is a definite concern, Posada (turns 38 this season), Matsui (turns 35), Jeter (turns 35), Damon (35), and Arod (turns 34). All but Damon were down last year and as you would expect with aging players, injuries became a major concern. I wonder just how much Posada is going to be able to catch this year. I expect further declines this year and more injuries. I have a hard time seeing this as a 850 run club after what they did last year.

[BaltimoreTerp]

If you get back to this older thread, I am curious as to why you feel they will score that many runs this year.

Last year they only scored 789 runs. They lost Giambi and Abreu, their number 2 and 3 best OPS players off of that team. I view adding Texiera and Swisher as about a wash. The rest of their regulars include 5 players where age is a definite concern, Posada (turns 38 this season), Matsui (turns 35), Jeter (turns 35), Damon (35), and Arod (turns 34). All but Damon were down last year and as you would expect with aging players, injuries became a major concern. I wonder just how much Posada is going to be able to catch this year. I expect further declines this year and more injuries. I have a hard time seeing this as a 850 run club after what they did last year.

Maybe, but Teixeira will far outperform Giambi and Swisher will at least equal Abreu. Plus catcher and second base were absolute black holes last year, and as long as Posada provides anything in that spot (and they'll catch him as much as he can physically take it) and Cano bounces back at all they will improve those spots tremendously.

Plus instead of their top pitchers being Mussina, Pettite, Rasner, Ponson and Wang, they will likely be Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Pettite and Chamberlain (or Hughes or Kennedy).

They might be an ~850-run offense but a ~700-run staff, which would put then around 95 wins.

[Moose Milligan]

It's hard for me to imagine this Yankee team winning less than about 85 games. Sure, they have some weaknesses on defense, but they'll score 850 or more runs. And their pitching wasn't bad last year and they added Burnett and Sabathia to that. If some of the young kids who struggled last year come through they could win 100. Actually, I wouldn't bet against them winning 95 or 100 even if we never hear from Hughes and Kennedy again.

Remember, their payroll isn't up much from last year so with their new Fort Knox Stadium coming on line to print money they have plenty of room to pick up any and all Micheal Young-type contracts they want when an injury or a slump happens.

Hey Drungo, statistically speaking, what's the difference of replacing Mussina's last season with Sabathia's average AL performance? Will that be a wash?

[DrungoHazewood]

If you get back to this older thread, I am curious as to why you feel they will score that many runs this year.

Last year they only scored 789 runs. They lost Giambi and Abreu, their number 2 and 3 best OPS players off of that team. I view adding Texiera and Swisher as about a wash. The rest of their regulars include 5 players where age is a definite concern, Posada (turns 38 this season), Matsui (turns 35), Jeter (turns 35), Damon (35), and Arod (turns 34). All but Damon were down last year and as you would expect with aging players, injuries became a major concern. I wonder just how much Posada is going to be able to catch this year. I expect further declines this year and more injuries. I have a hard time seeing this as a 850 run club after what they did last year.

They have some risks going forward due to age. Maybe they don't get to 850. But I think Cano is a good bet to bounce back. Teixeira is something of an upgrade over Giambi. And they weren't healthy last year - which will be a key again this year. If they have to give 1000 or so at bats to Molinas and Moellers, and Ensbergs and Garnders they might not score 800. But I have a feeling that their health will bounce back some, and they have a lot more financial flexibility than most other teams. So if Posada (or Damon or whoever) is some shadow of his former self I think they hide him on the 60 day DL and go out and buy a 2007-valued contract for a big hitter off of a team that's scared of the economy.

The Yanks are in an odd situation where they have a ton of talent, but it's all distributed wrong. I guess I could see them winning 100, or 85. Or in a really crazy circumstance they might blow up and collapse, with like six of the old guys on the DL at once. But I find it hard to believe the collapse is as likely as winning 95 with their rotation (which wasn't even a weakness last year).

[Palmoripken]

long shot no but they are no lock on the other hand. I do think their age will start catching up with them though.

[jiminnj]

Maybe, but Teixeira will far outperform Giambi and Swisher will at least equal Abreu. Plus catcher and second base were absolute black holes last year, and as long as Posada provides anything in that spot (and they'll catch him as much as he can physically take it) and Cano bounces back at all they will improve those spots tremendously.

Plus instead of their top pitchers being Mussina, Pettite, Rasner, Ponson and Wang, they will likely be Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Pettite and Chamberlain (or Hughes or Kennedy).

They might be an ~850-run offense but a ~700-run staff, which would put then around 95 wins.

No question in my mind that their pitching should be better barring injuries, I just don't think the offense is that great especially considering the number of aging players. For instance, Jeters OPS in 2006 was 0.900, in 2007 was 0.840 and in 2008 was 0.771. If the trend continues it will be about 0.705 in 2009.

How is Swisher equal to Abreu of 2008? Abreu had an .843 OPS last year, while Swisher had a .743 OPS last year and his career OPS is .805. I think it is a stretch to think that Swisher can replace what Abreu did last year.

I think the Yankees will be a very good team this year, but like Tampa last year, it will be because they have an average offense but very good pitching. Last year the Yanks were an average AL offensive team, 7th in the AL in runs scored, I don't expect the offense to be much different this year.