Heston Kjerstad 2023

[Just Regular]

The Gunnar 2022 was 47-65-34 games at the three levels

Kjerstad 2023 now at 38-??-??

[AnythingO's]

36 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The Gunnar 2022 was 47-65-34 games at the three levels Kjerstad 2023 now at 38-??-??

So another 10 games, about 40 ABs, rounds to about 200 ABs total by mid-June, WahLah lol. I am just happy he is healthy and producing and look forward to him in Norfolk, hopefully knocking on the MLB door loudly.

[Frobby]

I took a look at the promotion pattern of 14 of our current or past prospects, 10 of whom have reached AA or higher.  I do not think there’s any hard and fast rule about when players gets promoted.  The one thing I will say is, once a player hits AA, the O’s like to look at them there for a while.  Vavra had the fewest AA PA before promotion at 184; Ortiz the most so far at 495.   Mayo at 318 has already been in AA longer than Vavra, Cowser (224), Henderson (225), Stowers (237) and Norby (296), and may soon pass Westburg (339) and Rutschman (357).   Kjerstad is lower than all these guys at 169 PA.

Edited May 27, 2023 by Frobby

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I took a look at the promotion pattern of 14 of our current or past prospects, 10 of whom have reached AA or higher.  I do not think there’s any hard and fast rule about when players gets promoted.  The one thing I will say is, once a player hits AA, the O’s like to look at them there for a while.  Vavra had the fewest AA PA before promotion at 184; Ortiz the most so far at 495.   Mayo at 318 has already been in AA longer than Vavra, Cowser (224), Henderson (225), Stowers (237) and Norby (296), and may soon pass Westburg (339) and Rutschman (357).   Kjerstad is lower than all these guys at 169 PA.

Vavra finished 2021 with 184 PA in AA.  They placed him at AAA to start 2022.   

Mayo is 21 and they still don't know what position he would play in the majors.  Offense and defense is considered for promotions.

Rutschman is a catcher.  That 's different.

Westburg didn't hit well enough in Bowie to master the level in 2021.  So they sent him back they in 2022 until he hit well of 209 PAs.

Elias has a pattern of wanting his prospects to have at least 200 PA to show they have mastered a level.   If you can't see that.......................

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by wildcard

[orioles22]

13 hours ago, deward said:

My thinking is that he's already old for a top prospect in AA. He was an advanced college hitter, looked good in both the AFL and spring training, and appears to be demonstrating mastery of his current level. It makes sense to me to try and catch him up to where he should have been without the health issues as soon as feasible. 

He went to college and then had a health issue. I think that explains his age. I don't know how that matters anyway. He should have plenty of time for a nice career with the Orioles, whether he starts at 25 or 27.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Vavra finished 2021 with 184 PA in AA.  They placed him at AAA to start 2022.   

Mayo is 21 and they still don't know what position he would play in the majors.  Offense and defense is considered for promotions.

Rutschman is a catcher.  That 's different.

Elias has a pattern of wanting his prospects to have at least 200 PA to show they have mastered a level.   If you can't see that.......................

 

Ortiz had 89 at bats in high A before he was promoted.  Vavra had 24.  Stowers had 161.  Kjerstad had 186.   Pretty much nobody had 200 at bats at low A before going to high A.

At the upper levels, I just showed you there’s a huge variance.  184 for Vavra, 495 for Ortiz.   

Let’s remember the context here. The post to which I was responding said that Kjerstad would probably get promoted in mid-June because he’ll be past the 200 PA threshold.  I said it’s not that mechanical and the O’s might choose to keep him there longer.   Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo and Adley are all proof of that.   I didn’t say the O’s were likely to promote him before he reached 200 PA.   

The interesting one at the moment is Holliday.  Will they keep him in Aberdeen for another month (he’s at 110 PA now)?  I don’t know, we’ll see.  

 

[deward]

35 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

He went to college and then had a health issue. I think that explains his age. I don't know how that matters anyway. He should have plenty of time for a nice career with the Orioles, whether he starts at 25 or 27.

That was my point. The health issue has delayed his progression; it would be helpful if can make up for lost time now that he's healthy. Starting later would potentially cost both him and the O's some of his prime years, it's not a non-issue.

[deward]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Invent it at your own peril.  

 

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ortiz had 89 at bats in high A before he was promoted.  Vavra had 24.  Stowers had 161.  Kjerstad had 186.   Pretty much nobody had 200 at bats at low A before going to high A.

At the upper levels, I just showed you there’s a huge variance.  184 for Vavra, 495 for Ortiz.   

Let’s remember the context here. The post to which I was responding said that Kjerstad would probably get promoted in mid-June because he’ll be past the 200 PA threshold.  I said it’s not that mechanical and the O’s might choose to keep him there longer.   Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo and Adley are all proof of that.   I didn’t say the O’s were likely to promote him before he reached 200 PA.   

The interesting one at the moment is Holliday.  Will they keep him in Aberdeen for another month (he’s at 110 PA now)?  I don’t know, we’ll see.  

 

My post explained Vavra.  The season ended.  The point is to master a level and Ortiz had an injury. He turned his season around.  I know you know this stuff.  I am pretty sure you can see the pattern.   I just believe you are being difficult.    Whatever.   Its not worth arguing with you over.

Edited May 27, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My post explained Vavra.  The season ended.  The point is to master a level and Ortiz had an injury. He turned his season around.  I know you know this stuff.  I am pretty sure you can see the pattern.   I just believe you are being difficult.    Whatever.   Its not worth arguing with you over.

I have like 5 examples of guys who didn’t require 200 PA in hi A.  I pointed out that lots of guys have required a lot more than 200 PA in AA.   It’s almost as if they consider  level, age, timing, injuries and performance in deciding when it’s time to promote someone.  Shocker.  

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have like 5 examples of guys who didn’t require 200 PA in hi A.  I pointed out that lots of guys have required a lot more than 200 PA in AA.   It’s almost as if they consider  level, age, timing, injuries and performance in deciding when it’s time to promote someone.  Shocker.  

Don't forget have room at the next level.  You can ask Westburg about that one.

The discuss has been why hasn't Kjerstad been promoted to AAA.  My answer is he does not have at least 200 PA.  My I right?  Guess we will see when he is promoted.

As far as Holliday goes.   I think he stays at A+ until he has 200 PAs. 

Both are good enough to move sooner but at least 200 PA appears to be Elias criteria IMO.

[AnythingO's]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have like 5 examples of guys who didn’t require 200 PA in hi A.  I pointed out that lots of guys have required a lot more than 200 PA in AA.   It’s almost as if they consider  level, age, timing, injuries and performance in deciding when it’s time to promote someone.  Shocker.  

Sorry, I triggered this dust up, I was just trying to take advantage of WC's 200 AB rule, a play on words, to advocate for HK getting promoted in June. I did not mean to imply it is some mechanical threshold. Obviously those other factors are also in play as you point out. However, HK had a great AFL, I watched his SOs in 2 week intervals. First 2 weeks he SO 35% of the time if I remember correctly. By the last 2 weeks he was down to 20%. SSS to be sure, but he adjusted. Then a good ST and now 169 AB where he is dominant. I want him to have enough time in AAA to be an OD 2024 candidate, assuming performance. I am just hoping he continues to perform over the coming weeks so a promotion sometime in June is viable. Norfolk doesn't seem to have a full time DH and HK should be able to get some 1B and RF ABs as well to keep the bat in the lineup.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Sorry, I triggered this dust up, I was just trying to take advantage of WC's 200 AB rule, a play on words, to advocate for HK getting promoted in June. I did not mean to imply it is some mechanical threshold. Obviously those other factors are also in play as you point out. However, HK had a great AFL, I watched his SOs in 2 week intervals. First 2 weeks he SO 35% of the time if I remember correctly. By the last 2 weeks he was down to 20%. SSS to be sure, but he adjusted. Then a good ST and now 169 AB where he is dominant. I want him to have enough time in AAA to be an OD 2024 candidate, assuming performance. I am just hoping he continues to perform over the coming weeks so a promotion sometime in June is viable. Norfolk doesn't seem to have a full time DH and HK should be able to get some 1B and RF ABs as well to keep the bat in the lineup.

I don’t disagree with anything you say here.   I think that if Kjerstad gets to AAA by mid-July, and does well there, he will be a viable candidate for the 2024 OD roster.   Therefore, I’m not too concerned about exactly when he gets promoted, so long as it’s by then.  But if it’s sooner, great.  

[jabba72]

Didnt prospects in the recent past, skip AAA altogether? I know Machado did. So did Markakis. Kjerstad was drafted higher than both of them. I just know there used to be less emphasis on AAA for guys seen as major leaguers. 

[jabba72]

Adding to the above thought since I cant edit, I believe service time issues are a huge motivating factor for promoting prospects to AAA.