Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[BrendanPlutschak]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Unfortunately, it's not. And after this season, we will have a bigger mistake to discuss. That's not to say Elias is bad, but you can definitely argue signing and then playing Odor all season, not getting anything of value back for Castro, then playing Aguilar as mistakes to track as well. Clearly, we don't know how the Frazier signing will turn out, but paying him $8 million when he had Urias, Westburg and Vavra ready and Ortiz potentially ready won't make sense unless Frazier tears it up and those guys struggle this year.

At the end of the day, there are those who do believe Elias and his crew are infallible, but they are not. He's done an excellent job in packing the farm system with talent and I like his first real "prospect" for major league player trade with the Irvin-Hernaiz trade, but he still has a lot to prove when it comes to putting a perennial winning/playoff caliber team on the major league field. That will come with time. 

I COMPLETELY agree with this. Elias has done an INCREDIBLE job building this organization up from where we were when he took over, to where we are now. But that is within the draft and trading for prospects and "building the foundation" for this rebuild. However, this team is not going to win a world series with our current 40 man roster. There are other moves that are going to need to be made to get finishing pieces. It's yet to be seen how Elias is going to do that and how well he will succeed in doing it.

 

I also completely question the Frazier signing. Maybe he absolutely rakes and it'll answer itself. But signing an average 2nd baseman when we already have Mateo, Henderson, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, Vavra, etc etc etc to be able to play that position is very puzzling to me. 

[foxfield]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Unfortunately, it's not. And after this season, we will have a bigger mistake to discuss. That's not to say Elias is bad, but you can definitely argue signing and then playing Odor all season, not getting anything of value back for Castro, then playing Aguilar as mistakes to track as well. Clearly, we don't know how the Frazier signing will turn out, but paying him $8 million when he had Urias, Westburg and Vavra ready and Ortiz potentially ready won't make sense unless Frazier tears it up and those guys struggle this year.

At the end of the day, there are those who do believe Elias and his crew are infallible, but they are not. He's done an excellent job in packing the farm system with talent and I like his first real "prospect" for major league player trade with the Irvin-Hernaiz trade, but he still has a lot to prove when it comes to putting a perennial winning/playoff caliber team on the major league field. That will come with time. 

What is the bigger mistake after this season?

[UMDTerrapins]

34 minutes ago, foxfield said:

What is the bigger mistake after this season?

I was wondering the same thing. Something with Hyde? Not trading Santander? I mean we only have a handful of players under contract for next year. 

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, foxfield said:

What is the bigger mistake after this season?

 

10 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I was wondering the same thing. Something with Hyde? Not trading Santander? I mean we only have a handful of players under contract for next year. 

Frazier signing.

[IPlayGM]

16 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I think the sports landscape in general is not looking as lucrative as it once was. We all know about MASN, but attendance and viewership are struggling across many sports. I know we also have the Angelos issue, but I think there are more substantial unknowns even than those two.

Have you seen the contracts given out this offseason?!? Money talks, and to me that action alone speaks to the financial health of the sport.  To me, this is used more as an excuse for O’s spending reluctance more than it is truth.

[Frobby]

I’m a bottom line guy.   Elias won’t be fully judged until his time with the O’s is up.   If we’ve had several deep playoff runs and hopefully a couple of WS appearances and/or wins, he’ll get an A from me regardless of any mistakes he made along the way.   If we have a minor run similar to 2012-16 and that’s as good as it gets, that’s a C.   Right now he’s capable of earning an A, but we’ll see if he has what it takes to build a truly great team.  Of course, ownership may prevent that from happening, but if he’s truly great at his job, it’s doubtful he’ll be stopped from building a great team.  

[MCO'sFan]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Frazier signing.

I am wondering if he signed him with the thought that he would prefer the IF prospects start the year at AAA and maybe Frazier would re-establish himself and he would get something for him at the deadline. I know I am reaching but this is the only rationale I can think that makes any sense. I don't see it though. 

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

Have you seen the contracts given out this offseason?!? Money talks, and to me that action alone speaks to the financial health of the sport.  To me, this is used more as an excuse for O’s spending reluctance more than it is truth.

I agree with this. Seems to be a whole lot of money given out this year outside of Baltimore.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 3/6/2023 at 1:03 PM, LookinUp said:

I think the sports landscape in general is not looking as lucrative as it once was. We all know about MASN, but attendance and viewership are struggling across many sports. I know we also have the Angelos issue, but I think there are more substantial unknowns even than those two.

Despite the uncertainty in regards to attendance, viewership and undoubtedly long term revenue growth, this offseason was record setting in regards to free agent contracts.  O's had obvious needs to solidify the rotation and all they did was sign a journeyman to a 1 year deal.

[geschinger]

On 3/7/2023 at 5:59 AM, IPlayGM said:

Have you seen the contracts given out this offseason?!? Money talks, and to me that action alone speaks to the financial health of the sport.  To me, this is used more as an excuse for O’s spending reluctance more than it is truth.

They did come off a year of record revenue with the large payout from Disney.

However the news since all those big contracts were given out has to be concerning for the industry.  RSNs are imploding - Bally and SportsNet on the brink of bankruptcy.  Those two companies handle the local tv media rights for almost 2/3 of MLB.  One piece I read about it estimated that teams should expect their local media rights fees to be cut by as much as 70%.  

ESPN's revenue is deteriorating quickly as a result of cord cutting / loss of ad revenue according to Disney in their latest financial results. TBS was acquired by Discovery which seems to be going in a completely different direction - will they be willing to pay big for TV rights when the existing deal expires?  If the trends don't change a reduction seems much more likely than an increase in broadcast TV revenues when those deals come up for renewal in a few years.  

Long way of saying there is a very good chance 2022 was the peak for MLB revenue and teams that spent like 2022 is the new baseline may be doing some severe payroll cost cutting a few years from now.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, geschinger said:

They did come off a year of record revenue with the large payout from Disney.

However the news since all those big contracts were given out has to be concerning for the industry.  RSNs are imploding - Bally and SportsNet on the brink of bankruptcy.  Those two companies handle the local tv media rights for almost 2/3 of MLB.  One piece I read about it estimated that teams should expect their local media rights fees to be cut by as much as 70%.  

ESPN's revenue is deteriorating quickly as a result of cord cutting / loss of ad revenue according to Disney in their latest financial results. TBS was acquired by Discovery which seems to be going in a completely different direction - will they be willing to pay big for TV rights when the existing deal expires?  If the trends don't change a reduction seems much more likely than an increase in broadcast TV revenues when those deals come up for renewal in a few years.  

Long way of saying there is a very good chance 2022 was the peak for MLB revenue and teams that spent like 2022 is the new baseline may be doing some severe payroll cost cutting a few years from now.

Yea I as recently told that the idea of MASN folding over the next few years is a real possibility.

[2001OriolesFan]

On 3/2/2023 at 9:46 AM, Sanfran327 said:

I agree with everything you said here, except I have a hard time envisioning what the vets could bring back that's more valuable than what they are or who we have. Meaning, I don't think a 2, 3, or even 4:1 trade brings back an all star-caliber player, which is what I think your goal is. I'm just not sure who would make that trade, even on a bad team with a good player. 

Bring in high ceiling pitching prospects.  Go for guys who are in the 5-15 range for good farm systems who have a high ceiling. Trade one of our starting outfielders and a good backup young IF ior Mateo/Urias as well as  a back up but servicable starting pitcher for the guy. We can do 3 of such trades and get an extra top of the rotation guy in 3-4 years out of it and the three roll of the dice.

 

[geschinger]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I as recently told that the idea of MASN folding over the next few years is a real possibility.

It wouldn't surprise me at all.  Carriage fees are the most significant revenue driver - no way additional advertising from having a second team's games cover the rights fees for that second team.  That makes losing subscribers far worse for MASN than other single-team RSNs.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, geschinger said:

It wouldn't surprise me at all.  Carriage fees are the most significant revenue driver - no way additional advertising from having a second team's games cover the rights fees for that second team.  That makes losing subscribers far worse for MASN than other single-team RSNs.  

These RSNs need to break away from cable outlets and offer their own app.

If MASN charged say, $15/month or $120 a year (something like that), they would get the subscribers.

I just don’t get how these guys can be this far behind the technology that is out there that is used by so many.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Sports Guy

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I as recently told that the idea of MASN folding over the next few years is a real possibility.

Fingers crossed!