Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[Babkins]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Having three plus pitches is great, but Hall's minor league walk rates tells me he's not ready for a MLB rotation spot. And it has nothing to do with the team's talent / rotational depth. He's shown little or no signs of improvement with his walk rate in five minor league seasons. So yeah I'm starting to sour on him a bit as being an integral part of the rotation (and view him more as a reliever) until he shows some improvement and learns how to be a pitcher and not just a thrower. If the team truly thinks that he still profiles as a starter he should start the season in AAA because they aren't in a position to let him learn on the fly at the major league level. 

For context, Dylan Cease had by far the worst walk rate in MLB last season at 3.89. Yes, he had a great season, but most experts view it as unstainable and expect a regression to his 2021 numbers (i.e., a 4.00ish ERA). If we assume that everyone's stats typically gets a bit worse when they jump from the minors to the majors I'd say that  Hall needs to get his minor league walk rate down to the low 3.0 range before I'd consider him for a major league rotation spot. 

D.L. Hall's Walk Rate (by season)

2017 - 8.7
2018 - 4.0
2019 - 6.0
2021 - 4.5
2022 - 7.3

Hall’s BB/9 at Norfolk last year was 5.3, not 7.3. And it was 4.0 in his short stint with the big club.

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

You are correct that not all prospects pan out, but it's also true that Ortiz, Westburg, Norby, Cowser and Kjerstad (and of course Gunnar) are more highly regarded by prospect hounds and have a better minor league track record collectively than Urias, Hays, Mateo, Mountcastle , Mullins, Santander and Mancini ever had.  Mountcastle is the only one among our current young veterans who had a lot of national prospect hype in the minors.  

Others have already pointed out that Hays and Mateo got a good bit of kudos while in the minors.   I’ll leave that to the side and just go back to my point.  The 5 prospects you mentioned are all on one or more top 100 lists, which is great.   I think only Cowser has appeared in a top 50, and some don’t list him in the top 100.   So, I think if you look at comparable past prospects around MLB, I think you’ll be surprised at how low the “hit rate” is on those types of players.   Better than an unranked prospect?   Yes.  But the odds of even that type of player turning out to be an above average major league starter are not really that high.   Here’s the best research I’ve seen on the topic.   Bottom line, the odds suggest that only one of the five will be a 10+ WAR player, and if two of them are, we’ll be beating the odds.   Of course, I hope they all turn out to be “difference makers” but we can’t really expect it.  

[Spy Fox]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are aware that Austin Hays was a 2017 minor league player of the year finalist right?

He put up a .329/.365/.593 season.

 

21 hours ago, Pickles said:

Mateo made more top (annual) 100 lists than Ortiz and Westburg combined.

This also came up recently with people saying the late 2000s cavalry was never that highly regarded to begin with.

I think there's a tendency to forget that guys who are just average at the MLB level were often "top prospects" too, and also to forget how prospects below the super elite Wieters/Machado/Rutschman/Henderson/Rodriguez level were ranked. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Babkins said:

Hall’s BB/9 at Norfolk last year was 5.3, not 7.3. And it was 4.0 in his short stint with the big club.

That's fine (my mistake), but his total BB/9 was 5.34 last year. His Norfolk BB/9 was 5.75 (even worse).  I think his MLB BB/9 is pretty irrelevant because he didn't pitch more than 2 innings in any single outing. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

That's fine (my mistake), but his total BB/9 was 5.34 last year. His Norfolk BB/9 was 5.75 (even worse).  I think his MLB BB/9 is pretty irrelevant because he didn't pitch more than 2 innings in any single outing. 

Obviously, control/command is the issue with Hall.  I’ve said this before, but I think Hall is going to be a guy who takes a couple of years to put things all together.  It’s not uncommon.  He still has a very high ceiling as a starter that makes it hard to give up using him in that role.  But obviously the walk rate has to drop significantly and he needs to be able to lower his pitch count and get ahead of hitters.  Easier said than done.  

[AnythingO's]

Several have suggested Hall should be used in a tandem or piggyback role with GRod and have been questioned "why". Perhaps the answer lies in whether we view that as a starter or RP role. Last year Hall had 11 appearances in a RP role. His first outing was bad but over his next 10 appearances he struck out 13 vs 3 BB over 10 innings. Yes, SSS, but that is all we have in that role. Call it a starter or opener or whatever you like. If he stays up he can stay on regular rotation, limited to 1-2 innings allows him to focus on fewer pitches, and hopefully working with Holt et al is best for his development. As long as Tate is out a BP spot is not a restriction. Any given day GRod or Hall have it all working you let them go longer. Keep GRod on 3-4 inning and Hall on 1-2 inning restrictions leaves them both with innings to spare for late season run.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Several have suggested Hall should be used in a tandem or piggyback role with GRod and have been questioned "why". Perhaps the answer lies in whether we view that as a starter or RP role. Last year Hall had 11 appearances in a RP role. His first outing was bad but over his next 10 appearances he struck out 13 vs 3 BB over 10 innings. Yes, SSS, but that is all we have in that role. Call it a starter or opener or whatever you like. If he stays up he can stay on regular rotation, limited to 1-2 innings allows him to focus on fewer pitches, and hopefully working with Holt et al is best for his development. As long as Tate is out a BP spot is not a restriction. Any given day GRod or Hall have it all working you let them go longer. Keep GRod on 3-4 inning and Hall on 1-2 inning restrictions leaves them both with innings to spare for late season run.

Why should innings be a concern for either of them?

Assuming normal modern era pitcher usage?

We are talking about a league in which fewer than 10 pitchers threw 200 innings.

If you let the two of them throw to their ability neither should get near that so why arbitrarily limit them further?

I don't know of any proven justification for limiting Grayson to 3-4 inning starts.

[Going Underground]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Others have already pointed out that Hays and Mateo got a good bit of kudos while in the minors.   I’ll leave that to the side and just go back to my point.  The 5 prospects you mentioned are all on one or more top 100 lists, which is great.   I think only Cowser has appeared in a top 50, and some don’t list him in the top 100.   So, I think if you look at comparable past prospects around MLB, I think you’ll be surprised at how low the “hit rate” is on those types of players.   Better than an unranked prospect?   Yes.  But the odds of even that type of player turning out to be an above average major league starter are not really that high.   Here’s the best research I’ve seen on the topic.   Bottom line, the odds suggest that only one of the five will be a 10+ WAR player, and if two of them are, we’ll be beating the odds.   Of course, I hope they all turn out to be “difference makers” but we can’t really expect it.  

Victor Robles was ranked fifth best prospect in 2018 and for three years in the top 20. He is one of many. Pitchers even worse.I think Judge was ranked 90th best prosoect one year ,not sure if that is the highest he ever was listed. 

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why should innings be a concern for either of them? Assuming normal modern era pitcher usage? We are talking about a league in which fewer than 10 pitchers threw 200 innings. If you let the two of them throw to their ability neither should get near that so why arbitrarily limit them further? I don't know of any proven justification for limiting Grayson to 3-4 inning starts.

I don't disagree that there is no "proven justification for limiting" either of their innings, and yet "conventional wisdom" says about a 50 inning bump year-over-year. That is all I am referring to. I know ME said there won't be a hard and fast rule. I don't interpret that as full go. Hall did 97 and GRod did 75 innings. Planning for 150 from either of them is unwise IMO. Hence, inning limits early to have extra innings available late. My main point was to have Hall up and on a SP rotation, working on command with Holt. The assumption is that he is more valuable than Polti, etc until Tate returns. Then you re-evaluate.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I don't disagree that there is no "proven justification for limiting" either of their innings, and yet "conventional wisdom" says about a 50 inning bump year-over-year. That is all I am referring to. I know ME said there won't be a hard and fast rule. I don't interpret that as full go. Hall did 97 and GRod did 75 innings. Planning for 150 from either of them is unwise IMO. Hence, inning limits early to have extra innings available late. My main point was to have Hall up and on a SP rotation, working on command with Holt. The assumption is that he is more valuable than Polti, etc until Tate returns. Then you re-evaluate.

I'd absolutely have plans for them to throw 150 innings.

I would also have plans for them to get hurt in ST and miss the season.

I'm high on Hall in the long term but I don't think he hits 150 innings if you take all restrictions off of him right now. 

[AnythingO's]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd absolutely have plans for them to throw 150 innings. I would also have plans for them to get hurt in ST and miss the season. I'm high on Hall in the long term but I don't think he hits 150 innings if you take all restrictions off of him right now. 

Sen 1, change "plans" to "hope" and I'm right there with you. Sen 2, that's contingency plans which is why we have 8 SP candidates not counting Hall. Sen 3, I agree, but from effectiveness vs injury perspective. I would rather he spend whatever bullets his arm has in it this year up here with Holt, and grow into the SP we hope he can be.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Several have suggested Hall should be used in a tandem or piggyback role with GRod and have been questioned "why". 

Because people have a kinky obsession with prospects. Don’t get me wrong, I like our guys, too, but I don’t see anyone calling for a G-Rod/Akin tandem. 
 

Can you imagine the collective boner this place would get if G-rod went 6 shut out innings and Hall went 3 shutout innings with Adley doing all the catching? It’d be pandemonium. 
 

That’s all this is. 

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because people have a kinky obsession with prospects. Don’t get me wrong, I like our guys, too, but I don’t see anyone calling for a G-Rod/Akin tandem. 
 

Can you imagine the collective boner this place would get if G-rod went 6 shut out innings and Hall went 3 shutout innings with Adley doing all the catching? It’d be pandemonium. 
 

That’s all this is. 

Naw, you'd also have to add a Gunnar dong.

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Naw, you'd also have to add a Gunnar dong.

Nah he got benched for Mateo at SS for his defense in the 7th. 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah he got benched for Mateo at SS for his defense in the 7th. 

Well I know what I'm going to be taking about!