Demise of the two-way CF

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's really not a big deal since there's basically no chance he's getting extended. He's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball and that isn't very likely to change this year or next. Also, it's not like the Orioles have a surefire stud CF that can easily replace him imminently. There is no sense in trading him right now. I've mentioned this before but I don't understand the obsession with trying to trade guys at their max value when they are actively providing that value to your big league club. Especially coming out the glacial pace rebuild we just had. Just let him play out the contract.  If Fabian takes his job in 2024 and the Orioles lose a bit of value in a trade around that time, I'm willing to live with that if Mullins had a season like he did last year or in 2021 this season.

Because we could trade him now, get a decent package back and still have Fabian take his job in 2024...rather than get a lesser package for an obviously declining player after this year and still have Fabian or someone else take his job.  

If that outcome you want is to "let him play out the contract" then he ends up leaving in free agency and you didn't get anything in return, except maybe a comp pick.  If you're okay with that, that's fine.  And I'm not saying we 100% have to trade him either, but I'd be curious to see what his market is and if there's something that would make sense for us, I'd hope that Elias would make the move.

I'm not sure how confident I am in your statement that he's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball and that's not very likely to change this year or next.  It can absolutely change.

[LTO's]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because we could trade him now, get a decent package back and still have Fabian take his job in 2024...rather than get a lesser package for an obviously declining player after this year and still have Fabian or someone else take his job.  

If that outcome you want is to "let him play out the contract" then he ends up leaving in free agency and you didn't get anything in return, except maybe a comp pick.  If you're okay with that, that's fine.  And I'm not saying we 100% have to trade him either, but I'd be curious to see what his market is and if there's something that would make sense for us, I'd hope that Elias would make the move.

I'm not sure how confident I am in your statement that he's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball and that's not very likely to change this year or next.  It can absolutely change.

Fabian is a 45 FV prospect with extreme hit tool questions. Banking on him taking the job at this point would be rather absurd. I don't understand why they would need to get some potential future value for him now when he's still actively providing value for the big league club. He had the highest WAR on the team in 2021 and was 2nd last year. I don't think his market is such that there is an obvious return that would be better for the 2023/2024 Orioles. And if we're still subtracting ML players for prospects at this point, what are we even doing man? It seemed like you were advocating for trading him now but if I misunderstood I apologize. 

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Fabian is a 45 FV prospect with extreme hit tool questions. Banking on him taking the job at this point would be rather absurd. I don't understand why they would need to get some potential future value for him now when he's still actively providing value for the big league club. He had the highest WAR on the team in 2021 and was 2nd last year. I don't think his market is such that there is an obvious return that would be better for the 2023/2024 Orioles. And if we're still subtracting ML players for prospects at this point, what are we even doing man? It seemed like you were advocating for trading him now but if I misunderstood I apologize. 

I think he should be shopped and I think Elias should pull the trigger if there's something that makes sense...like some more prospect arms.  Shopping doesn't always equal trading.

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's somewhat fair, but I don't see many great defensive center fielders who have average speed or below.  Yes, you need to be able to get a good jump and take good routes to balls but that will only get a centerfielder so far. 

They need to be able to cover some ground.  They need to be able to get to a ball in the gaps to cut it off or to be able to make a throw to hold a runner at first.  

Cedric isn't about to get better at covering ground.  Any improvements he can make in CF in regards to getting better jumps and reads on balls and taking better routes to ball is going to be offset by the fact that his sprint speed is declining.  

Statcast shows us that his sprint speed from last year was ranked in the 80th percentile which is still strong.  His outfielder jump was in the 77th percentile.

But his sprint speed was down from an 86 the year before.  His outfielder jump is was 73 so he actually got better on his jumps.  

But his sprint speed has declined from 2020 when it was in the 92nd percentile.  Like it or not, he's slowing down.

The good news is that somehow his Outs Above Average has hovered in the 96th percentile all these years.  

But you can't tell me that his declining sprint speed is going to make playing a great CF easier for him.  

Of the 16 centerfielders rated at 6+ Outs Above Average, Mullins (+9) had the third slowest sprint time at 28.4 ft/sec.  Only Daulton Varsho (+8, 28.0) and Cody Bellinger (+7, 28.1) were slower.   Mullins is also 4th oldest of that group, none of whom have turned 30 yet.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

It's really not a big deal since there's basically no chance he's getting extended. He's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball and that isn't very likely to change this year or next. Also, it's not like the Orioles have a surefire stud CF that can easily replace him imminently. There is no sense in trading him right now. I've mentioned this before but I don't understand the obsession with trying to trade guys at their max value when they are actively providing that value to your big league club. Especially coming out the glacial pace rebuild we just had. Just let him play out the contract.  If Fabian takes his job in 2024 and the Orioles lose a bit of value in a trade around that time, I'm willing to live with that if Mullins had a season like he did last year or in 2021 this season.

Exactly. Any argument against Mullins every other GM is well aware of. If a trade hinges on the other side of the deal doing something stupid, it is unlikely to happen because in fact most GMs are at least as smart as your average baseball fan.

Trades are most likely if teams have matching needs and assets enabling them to trade equivalent value that results in a win-win. Being in different competitive situations is the common example. Without a two way CF in the pipeline, we have just as much need for Mullins as most other teams. Assuming equivalent value in return, any deal would not result in a net win for the Orioles. The only way we get a net win is to assume the other GM is dumb and gives us more than Mullins is worth. Probably not gonna happen.

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Trades are most likely if teams have matching needs and assets enabling them to trade equivalent value that results in a win-win. Being in different competitive situations is the common example. Without a two way CF in the pipeline, we have just as much need for Mullins as most other teams. Assuming equivalent value in return, any deal would not result in a net win for the Orioles. The only way we get a net win is to assume the other GM is dumb and gives us more than Mullins is worth. Probably not gonna happen.

Yup, the Orioles would not be trading from an area of the system that is a strength and if you're acquiring pitchers, you are taking on way more of the risk in that transaction. It's a common thing for people to get annoyed that certain players aren't traded completely ignoring how infrequent they actually are because of the reasons you mentioned. 

[SilverRocket]

I think Mullins gives us the same advantages that he would give for the teams that'd want to acquire him. He's filling a position of need, one where we have nobody else to step in this year and only question-mark prospects for next year. I'm not too big on trading him for major prospects at this point because our pipeline has a glut of players who would likely have to be put on the 40-man at a similar timeframe.

We're lucky to have one of the few two-way CFers. We should use him to win games while he's here. Besides catcher, he's in the toughest position to replace. If we want to move from a surplus, any other position would make more sense.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Of the 16 centerfielders rated at 6+ Outs Above Average, Mullins (+9) had the third slowest sprint time at 28.4 ft/sec.  Only Daulton Varsho (+8, 28.0) and Cody Bellinger (+7, 28.1) were slower.   Mullins is also 4th oldest of that group, none of whom have turned 30 yet.  

That group is spotty offensively as well. 

Looking at just CF sprint speed with over 100 opportunities, Mullins is 19th.  8 of them are older/same age.  Similar spottiness offensively.

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

[sportsfan8703]

I expect Mullins to have a bounce back season this year. His numbers will be somewhere between his 2021 and 2022 numbers. He’s a real asset, and one of the more underrated players in the AL. 

[Frobby]

22 hours ago, btdart20 said:

 

Basically defined as a 101 OPS+ and a dWAR 0.1 (over 100 games).  The article opens with Nimmo and his 8-year contract at age 30.  This short list only includes - Trout, JuRod, Harris II, Nimmo, and Mullins.  (Acuna could be on the list too but injury/Harris bumped him.)

Some key points from the article/podcast:

Positional versatility - playing in more positions is a trend.

To this point, only 12 players started 100+ games in CF last year.  So when they say only 5 players who played 100 games in CF had at least a 101 OPS+ and 0.1 dWAR, you have to realize that it’s 5 out of 12, not 5 out of 30.   And by the way, 0.1 dWAR is not a good defensive CF.  That is slightly below average, due to the positional adjustment CF’s receive.

[interloper]

19 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I expect Mullins to have a bounce back season this year. His numbers will be somewhere between his 2021 and 2022 numbers. He’s a real asset, and one of the more underrated players in the AL. 

He's looked good this spring. I'm sensing he's determined to get back to '21 Ced. Excited to watch him tonight!

[Just Regular]

There's one Fangraphs commenter who likes to talk about the Erick Aybar zone.    Nobody ever thought Erick Aybar was great.

But he defended up the middle well, hit a little bit, and from 25-31 produced 23 rWAR.    I think we're about halfway through something like that.

The Club's opportunity to backfill Mullins if there is a dealing off the top of the deck opportunity depends some on if perhaps aspiring Big Beefy Boy Colton Cowser is regarded as a playable CF.    I don't rule out they coached him to bulk up and bomb the flag court.

[forphase1]

19 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I expect Mullins to have a bounce back season this year. His numbers will be somewhere between his 2021 and 2022 numbers. He’s a real asset, and one of the more underrated players in the AL. 

I kinda feel the opposite.  I think his numbers will continue to regress and that he won't match his 2022 numbers.  With his splits at the plate and decline in speed I honestly think he's a bit overrated around here.  Very solid piece, and should be for a few more years, but not someone I'd consider a building block or untouchable.  I'd certainly trade him for the right deal.  

[Jammer7]

Mullins played 159 and 156 games the past two seasons, respectively. So, yes, he is going to wear down and his sprint speed is going to dip. Not many players today play that many games, but his bat has been too important to Baltimore. I get all of the “he’s 28 yoa and we’re not going to extend him and he’s peaked” talk, and perhaps we should be shopping him.

I would be surprised if Mullins, Hays or Santander is still in the roster when the Orioles are serious WS contenders. I will say that all three are just learning how to take care of themselves to last 162 games, and how to play through being dinged up. I could probably see Hays and Mullins having 3-4 more good years before an obvious decline happens. Santander is harder to say, with his inconsistent offseason workout goals. He gets leaner, the next year he sells out to get bigger, and this year it seems more lean and limber. 

[Just Regular]

The April Mullins angle I'm watching with popcorn ready is whether Adley/Gunnar monopolize the top 2 lineup spots...I believe they should.     Chris Sale opening day may mess things up like lefties can do (if he's fit for that outing...), but in Game 2 against Pivetta or Kluber or whoever I am hoping for something like:

SS Gunnar, C Adley, RF Santander, 1B Mountcastle, CF Mullins, LF Hays, DH Stowers, 3B Urias, 2B Frazier

Gunnar needs to perk up if he wants that to happen - with the weak finish and spring so far it'll be easy to place him low starting out.

Jose Iglesias has finally signed so anyone talking with Elias about Mateo/Urias can no longer say, I'll just give Jose Iglesias a fraction of Ryan O'Hearn money.