The Rotation

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

He had shoulder inflammation.

I know.  Some people theorize that the Orioles manufacture or exaggerated an injure in order to rework a pitcher down in FLA.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

A number of posters seem to be relying on spring training stats a ton in this rotation discussion. As of the start of today's game, Grayson has better spring training results than Voth or Wells (for most stats). Neither one of those guys are established ML pitchers, so if we are judging based on spring training stats, then they shouldn't get a pass. And of course we know Grayson has better stuff and projection. The O's would be super dumb to let a few spring training innings dictate what they are going to do with Grayson...and if you want to use spring training stats as your guide, then Voth and Wells have done no better than Grayson at this point (Wells is pitching now, so his stats after today's game may be a little better). 

I think if you read a little more closely we're not judging off statistics alone. Also, I think you can certainly say that both Wells an Voth have established themselves as major league pitchers. 

Rodriguez has no command of his breaking stuff and doesn't really have a feel for it so far. That is the concern. He's had two starts in a row now where he's been hit very hard. 

No one here is saying that Wells or Voth are better than Rodriguez long term, or maybe not even on opening day, but what some of us are saying if Rodriguez cant find that feel for the breaking stuff, it may be smart for the Orioles to give him a few starts in AAA to work to find that feel instead of potentially having him get lit up in the major leagues because he was run out there without all of his stuff.

On top of it all, whether fans want to agree with this or not, there is a financial aspect to this and while I'd prefer it not to be the equation if all things were equal, (and the Orioles are never going to say it is part of the equation) getting the extra year of control while he misses 3-4 starts when he's not even throwing well may be in their best interest.

Now, the Orioles very well may start Rodriguez in the rotation regardless, and that's fine. Trust me, I want to see him pitching in the major league rotation as much as anyone, but I'm just talking through the realistic scenarios. 

While I'm not screaming that he must go back to the minors, I can see why if they go that route. 

 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I know.  Some people theorize that the Orioles manufacture or exaggerated an injure in order to rework a pitcher down in FLA.

They absolutely reworked him while he had shoulder "inflammation". Every pitcher probably has some kind of shoulder "inflammation." If you think it's just a coincidence that he was pitching awful, got "shoulder" inflammation, and magically showed back up a better pitcher, then that is your right, but I think the Orioles use the IL to help pitchers reset and reworked a bit when things are going south. And personally, it looks like it works when they do so.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They absolutely reworked him while he had shoulder "inflammation". Every pitcher probably has some kind of shoulder "inflammation." If you think it's just a coincidence that he was pitching awful, got "shoulder" inflammation, and magically showed back up a better pitcher, then that is your right, but I think the Orioles use the IL to help pitchers reset and reworked a bit when things are going south. And personally, it looks like it works when they do so.

Haha.  I didn’t say the theory was wrong.   

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  I didn’t say the theory was wrong.   

My mistake then. Sounded like you were poo-pooing that "theory".

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

My mistake then. Sounded like you were poo-pooing that "theory".

I originally said “maybe he even had shoulder inflammation” suggesting that it’s not a sure thing.  The other poster quoted me and said he had shoulder inflammation.   I don’t know if he did.  How bad it was.  Nothing.  If they used it as an excuse to rework him in FLA I wouldn’t be shocked, by any means.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe. In a perfect world, this is what will be the case. In fact, I would agree it’s the most likely case.

But right now, all we know is that he felt he needed to reset after having some bad outings. That’s not something you normally hear. You don’t normally hear guys say they basically needed to face lesser competition.

Maybe it’s nothing but it’s also not something that gives me a ton of confidence that he is mentally prepared to overcome adversity at this level.

 

I think it’s something most guys would be unlikely to admit, even to themselves. Him having that ability to look inward and recognize he needs something to change is a positive. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I think it’s something most guys would be unlikely to admit, even to themselves. Him having that ability to look inward and recognize he needs something to change is a positive. 

Sure..as long as it doesn’t turn into an ongoing issue.

[Ohfan67]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think if you read a little more closely we're not judging off statistics alone. Also, I think you can certainly say that both Wells an Voth have established themselves as major league pitchers. 

Rodriguez has no command of his breaking stuff and doesn't really have a feel for it so far. That is the concern. He's had two starts in a row now where he's been hit very hard. 

No one here is saying that Wells or Voth are better than Rodriguez long term, or maybe not even on opening day, but what some of us are saying if Rodriguez cant find that feel for the breaking stuff, it may be smart for the Orioles to give him a few starts in AAA to work to find that feel instead of potentially having him get lit up in the major leagues because he was run out there without all of his stuff.

On top of it all, whether fans want to agree with this or not, there is a financial aspect to this and while I'd prefer it not to be the equation if all things were equal, (and the Orioles are never going to say it is part of the equation) getting the extra year of control while he misses 3-4 starts when he's not even throwing well may be in their best interest.

Now, the Orioles very well may start Rodriguez in the rotation regardless, and that's fine. Trust me, I want to see him pitching in the major league rotation as much as anyone, but I'm just talking through the realistic scenarios. 

While I'm not screaming that he must go back to the minors, I can see why if they go that route. 

 

I wasn’t thinking of your comments and similar comments…although I still think you guys are wrong. But if you are going to judge Grayson by 7+ innings then the same should apply to the other pitchers who are not established ML’s. Let’s put Voth and similar pitchers under the same microscope and see how they hold up. But again, it’s just dumb to judge Grayson on the few innings he’s pitched in spring training…and even in those innings, overall, he’s been mediocre with flashes of nasty stuff. He’s not sporting a crazy high spring training/small sample size ERA. 
 

The financial argument is betting on unlikely outcomes. The Orioles will be lucky if they can’t afford Grayson down the road. There’s a much higher probability that Grayson gets hurt, is not a dominant pitcher, etc. The odds are at least as high that the Orioles are wasting their valuable time with Grayson if they manipulate his clock this season.  Heck, the data about what happens to players as they age strongly suggests that the Orioles are dumb if they trade Grayson’s relative youth for the pitcher he will be in say six years. 
 

Unless Grayson’s delivery or similar is really messed up, then there’s just no compelling reason to send him down IMO. 

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course that could easily blow up in their face, ala Adley next year. The extra year is not a foregone conclusion anymore.

No. That said if he finished top 2 in ROY that’s a hell of a year.  

[eddie83]

Solid not spectacular day for competition.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They absolutely reworked him while he had shoulder "inflammation". Every pitcher probably has some kind of shoulder "inflammation." If you think it's just a coincidence that he was pitching awful, got "shoulder" inflammation, and magically showed back up a better pitcher, then that is your right, but I think the Orioles use the IL to help pitchers reset and reworked a bit when things are going south. And personally, it looks like it works when they do so.

Have you considered that he wasn’t pitching well partially because he was trying to throw through shoulder inflammation?   I think that’s entirely possible.   I don’t doubt that they reworked him a bit while he was on the IL, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t injured when he went on the IL.

[Frobby]

On 3/19/2023 at 12:17 PM, Sports Guy said:

 

Roch has reported all spring as if it’s a foregone conclusion he’s in the rotation. Elias has basically made it a foregone conclusion with his words. 

Like I told you, I couldn’t care less what Roch has reported.  It was never a foregone conclusion.  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Like I told you, I couldn’t care less what Roch has reported.  It was never a foregone conclusion.  

It absolutely was if he pitched well. I don’t think any context of any talk of that was done with the idea that he wasn’t going to pitch well.

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It absolutely was if he pitched well. I don’t think any context of any talk of that was done with the idea that he wasn’t going to pitch well.

Here’s what I said before:

“I couldn’t care less about what Roch has reported, because he’s been wrong about spring training decisions countless times in the past.  When the O’s announce who is going north, that’s when there will be ‘foregone conclusions.’ Not until.”

I stand by what I said.