Adam Frazier 2023

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He will be in AA within a month, which makes it likely he starts next year in AAA. He isn’t staying in AAA all year if he’s healthy and productive.

How productive?

I think where Holliday starts next year depends on how he does when he gets to Bowie, presumably in the next month but we’ll see.   We saw Gunnar and Westburg finish in Bowie in 2021 but stay there for most of the first half of 2022.   We’ve seen Mayo spend a half season at Bowie in 2022 and now he’s been there almost another half season in 2023.   So, finishing at Bowie doesn’t guarantee starting next year at Norfolk.  What Westburg, Henderson and Mayo have in common is that none of them dominated at Bowie their first go around.  So I’d say for Holliday to start 2024 in Norfolk, he’s going to need to do significantly better than those three did in Bowie round one:

Mayo .729 PA for 145 PA

Westburg .752 OPS in 130 PA

Henderson .561 OPS in 17 PA

Including the next season, Henderson had 225 PA at a .987 OPS in AA before he was promoted.   Westburg had 339 PA at .792.  Mayo has now had 414 PA at .902 OPS and he’s still waiting for his promotion.

Now, Holliday may get more AA time in 2023 than any of Westburg, Henderson or Mayo did in their first go-round, so that could give him a leg up in starting next year at Norfolk.  But I wouldn’t count on him starting there.   Let’s see if/when he gets to Bowie and how he does when he gets there.

 

 

 

[HelenaEngineer]

10 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Between him and Mateo's poor performance, how is Ortiz not getting five starts a week?

Frazier is hitting .155 in June, so his total collapse has been shorter and more recent than Mateo who is hitting .160 since May 1, but  I don't get it either. You can't keep this up much longer. Either one or both of them starts to hit or someone else has to take those spots. You might get away with one player not hitting at all, especially if he has a great glove, but you can't roll two of them out in the lineup every night.

[Brooks The Great]

56 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:

Frazier is hitting .155 in June, so his total collapse has been shorter and more recent than Mateo who is hitting .160 since May 1, but  I don't get it either. You can't keep this up much longer. Either one or both of them starts to hit or someone else has to take those spots. You might get away with one player not hitting at all, especially if he has a great glove, but you can't roll two of them out in the lineup every night.

I agree, but what should give Elias more urgency to replace Mateo and Frazier is that both players were terrible hitters last season. So these "recent" slumps aren't necessarily something short-term. I would actually be totally dismissive of any upcoming hot streak by either player - it's time to install younger players that actually have a future with this organization in Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg. 

[NedFromYork]

Probably not going to.do anything too drastic until the all-star break, then I would expect something at one or both positions.

[HelenaEngineer]

1 hour ago, NedFromYork said:

Probably not going to.do anything too drastic until the all-star break, then I would expect something at one or both positions.

Maybe - but those 16 games before the break, 13 of which are against the Yankees, Mariners and Twins who could all be competing with the Orioles for a post-season spot, all count. The other three are against the red hot Reds. Giving Ortiz some reasonable playing time and Mateo and Frazier some more bench time in that window doesn't seem "too drastic" in my view. If Ortiz looks overmatched, then maybe you go to Westburg after the break and consider Urias at 3B and Gunnar at SS as a baseline infield along with Westburg.

[glenn__davis]

Did you all hear Hyde's post-game interview regarding Frazier after Tuesday's game? Frazier isn't going anywhere.  He'll be a mainstay in the lineup for the remainder of the season.  Maybe, if he continues to struggle and Ortiz starts to hit or Westburg comes up and is productive, he'll lose some PT in September.

Not saying that's the way it should be, it's just the way it is.  His PV+ (league adjusted piss and vinegar quotient) is too high.

Edited June 22, 2023 by glenn__davis

[owknows]

9 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Did you all hear Hyde's post-game interview regarding Frazier after Tuesday's game? Frazier isn't going anywhere.  He'll be a mainstay in the lineup for the remainder of the season.  Maybe, if he continues to struggle and Ortiz starts to hit or Westburg comes up and is productive, he'll lose some PT in September.

Not saying that's the way it should be, it's just the way it is.  His PV+ (league adjusted piss and vinegar quotient) is too high.

Deja Vu all over again.

--Yogi Berra

[Brooks The Great]

26 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Did you all hear Hyde's post-game interview regarding Frazier after Tuesday's game? Frazier isn't going anywhere.  He'll be a mainstay in the lineup for the remainder of the season.  Maybe, if he continues to struggle and Ortiz starts to hit or Westburg comes up and is productive, he'll lose some PT in September.

Not saying that's the way it should be, it's just the way it is.  His PV+ (league adjusted piss and vinegar quotient) is too high.

The "vote of confidence" frequently comes before a player loses his job. Happens a lot with closers. If anything, that should tell us that Hyde is aware of Frazier's struggles and hopes that backing him will help him out of his slump somehow. Given Frazier's track record since the beginning of 2022, I don't see it happening. Frazier is a declining player and was a bad signing by Elias.

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, LA2 said:

.220/.315/.413 (103+) for Odor

(124 plate appearances with San Diego).

Holy snikees batman, I never realized Odor was actually outperforming Frazier with the bat. 

Frazier has had some nice timely hits this year and honestly would be a good bench guy. High leverage abilities along with his ability to make contact or get the runner over or just drive a ball deep enough to move a guy is valuable late in games.

Saying that, he should not be the everyday second baseman on a contending team. Personally I'm ready for an infield that includes Ortiz at SS and Westburg at 2B, but I know it's not going to happen. So I'll take Urias with everyday PAs at 2B again, and put Frazier and Mateo in the bench. Frazier can fill in when Henderson, or Urias needs a day off. 

It is time. 

[LA2]

47 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:

Maybe - but those 16 games before the break, 13 of which are against the Yankees, Mariners and Twins who could all be competing with the Orioles for a post-season spot, all count. The other three are against the red hot Reds. Giving Ortiz some reasonable playing time and Mateo and Frazier some more bench time in that window doesn't seem "too drastic" in my view. If Ortiz looks overmatched, then maybe you go to Westburg after the break and consider Urias at 3B and Gunnar at SS as a baseline infield along with Westburg.

I question throwing raw rookies into the breach against superior or hot competition, i.e. just the type of situation in which we might expect a Frazier, Mateo, or Urías to rise to the occasion either or both offensively and defensively. Rutschman's first month, Henderson's first months this season, Stowers this season, Vavra in general were not improvements.

The handling of Hicks and O'Hearn, among other decisions, tells me the FO knows what it's doing. It could, after all, be playing Mateo and Frazier this much to give them opportunities for further hot streaks that raise their trade value. One never knows.

Edited June 22, 2023 by LA2

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

The "vote of confidence" frequently comes before a player loses his job. Happens a lot with closers. If anything, that should tell us that Hyde is aware of Frazier's struggles and hopes that backing him will help him out of his slump somehow. Given Frazier's track record since the beginning of 2022, I don't see it happening. Frazier is a declining player and was a bad signing by Elias.

No, that wasn't the context.

Hyde had mentioned how in the past against TB he hadn't had Cano and Bautista to close those types of games out.  A reporter (not sure who) also mentioned how he didn't have Frazier as a leader on the field in the past, and Hyde went on to sing is praises effusively.  It wasn't a "vote of confidence" context.  

Ultimately Elias will make the move, but I assure you Hyde has no intention of moving on from Frazier.

[owknows]

12 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

No, that wasn't the context.

Hyde had mentioned how in the past against TB he hadn't had Cano and Bautista to close those types of games out.  A reporter (not sure who) also mentioned how he didn't have Frazier as a leader on the field in the past, and Hyde went on to sing is praises effusively.  It wasn't a "vote of confidence" context.  

Ultimately Elias will make the move, but I assure you Hyde has no intention of moving on from Frazier.

Nor did he have any intention of moving on from Odor.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

The "vote of confidence" frequently comes before a player loses his job. Happens a lot with closers. If anything, that should tell us that Hyde is aware of Frazier's struggles and hopes that backing him will help him out of his slump somehow. Given Frazier's track record since the beginning of 2022, I don't see it happening. Frazier is a declining player and was a bad signing by Elias.

I think he was a bad signing for the role he was signed for and for the amount of money. I can see some of things Frazier brings to the ballpark to help a team, it just should be as a bench guy. He's not an awful player, but he's overexposed as an everyday (basically platooned) player and it's clear that while his defense is ok, depending on what metric you use, it certainly is not plus to the point that you can carry his lack of OBP. 

Obviously the additional pop he's had this year and timely hits have helped, but he just should not be the everyday second baseman against righthanders. I still believe Urias, Ortiz and Westburg are all better options as the everyday 2B, just like I did when they signed up this offseason and set off the fan firestorm here.

I also truly believe he's an asset to the team in a bench role. So regardless of the amount he was signed for, he still can be a valuable member of the team. Just stop sending him out there everyday against right-handers.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

No, that wasn't the context.

Hyde had mentioned how in the past against TB he hadn't had Cano and Bautista to close those types of games out.  A reporter (not sure who) also mentioned how he didn't have Frazier as a leader on the field in the past, and Hyde went on to sing is praises effusively.  It wasn't a "vote of confidence" context.  

Ultimately Elias will make the move, but I assure you Hyde has no intention of moving on from Frazier.

Somewhere around year two, Hyde became the "sing praises effusively" of all of his players. In year one, he was more matter of fact when guys "needed to improve" but he either was "talked to" or decided on his own that he was going to be the guy who always praised his players in public. now I'm not saying he's wrong for doing that, and I have no idea what he says behind closed doors, but I also don't take too much out of what he says when he's signing those praises!

[Daddy-O's]

18 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

No, that wasn't the context.

Hyde had mentioned how in the past against TB he hadn't had Cano and Bautista to close those types of games out.  A reporter (not sure who) also mentioned how he didn't have Frazier as a leader on the field in the past, and Hyde went on to sing is praises effusively.  It wasn't a "vote of confidence" context.  

Ultimately Elias will make the move, but I assure you Hyde has no intention of moving on from Frazier.

Its a good thing that coaches are completely honest with the media, it allows us to know exactly what is going on.