USA Today Panel picks Orioles last in AL East

[clapdiddy]

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the outcome.  I still think next year is the year where this team will take off, providing that Rodriguez/Hall are competent starters or they've acquired new pitching talent by then.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you are of the mind that last season's team overachieved than you could improve the team and they could still finish with a worse record.

The 2013 team had a superior run differential than the 2012 team and yet won fewer games.

And like the 2012 team, the 2022 team outperformed its Pythagorean record by a significant margin.  Just a bit of bullpen regression, which is likely, could knock the team down several games.  

[deward]

Just now, deward said:

It's about what I'm expecting, as I'm assuming there will be regression in the pitching staff and not enough of an uptick in offense to off-set it. I'll be happy to be pleasantly surprised.

I guess I didn't actually answer the question. I already think that Elias has done a good job in rebuilding the org but was too conservative in trying to push the team forward this offseason, so my opinion wouldn't change.

[btdart20]

I don't think their projections are unreasonable.  There's enough downside risk around the team to project a sub-.500 record.

If that's their record, then my opinions on Elias and the FO would depend on how it happens.  But ultimately, I'm more concerned about the process than the results.  The decision to bring in Frazier, especially considering the budgetary constraints and pipeline resources, is questionable.  The decision to bring in Gibson and trade for Irvin are check marks on the path toward validating the risk-based process (based on Grayson's spring and injury/recovery concerns).

I think I'm more wondering about the things that we'll never know...  How would Westburg have done if given the shot from day 1?  Would any TOR arms have signed here?

[NCRaven]

I refuse to worry about things that aren't going to happen.  I expect Gibson and Irvin to be capable ML starting pitchers and for the younger pitchers to have an impact sooner rather than later.

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would separate my feelings about Elias & crew overall from my feelings about last offseason.  I feel that Elias has done a very good job overall and has built an organization that should be competitive for the next decade or so regardless of how this season turns out.  My opinion on that probably won’t change, barring something drastic.  But it certainly would cement my opinion that the O’s had a “D” offseason.   

I would tend to agree with this, but this will be his last mulligan. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

And like the 2012 team, the 2022 team outperformed its Pythagorean record by a significant margin.  Just a bit of bullpen regression, which is likely, could knock the team down several games.  

Exactly, that is why I've been using the comparison.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would tend to agree with this, but this will be his last mulligan. 

I’d agree with that, too.  

[NCRaven]

Regression does not mean what many seem to think it means.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I would tend to agree with this, but this will be his last mulligan. 

I think things would have to go very wrong for his job to be in jeopardy.  Might some fans turn on him...sure.  But I don't see anything that makes me think ownership has any issues.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you are of the mind that last season's team overachieved than you could improve the team and they could still finish with a worse record.

The 2013 team had a superior run differential than the 2012 team and yet won fewer games.

Fair point, but I still like to think of last year's team as a 84-win team that is bringing back a large majority of the same players who are young and in theory, should improve with experience. Had he added an impact starter and potentially a MOO, I would be pretty stoked about this season. 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think things would have to go very wrong for his job to be in jeopardy.  Might some fans turn on him...sure.  But I don't see anything that makes me think ownership has any issues.

I don't think any of us was talking ownership. I was talking about my own personal thoughts. If he punts another offseason next year or blocks more prospects with overpaid veterans I will personally not be happy with him and start to wonder whether he can handle the major league building portion of GM. 

The only thing we know about Elias is he's a good drafting and development GM. Everything else is still up for grading.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Regression does not mean what many seem to think it means.

 

[spiritof66]

I expect better, 84-ish wins (and hope for better than that)  and third or fourth place. But 78 is sure possible. At that level (or worse), Elias is should have to dodge (or ignore) some tough questions about the past off-season and about where the team is headed. 

[deward]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would tend to agree with this, but this will be his last mulligan. 

Last year was his last one for me. I know COVID threw a wrench in the works, but five years should be enough time to get a winning team on the field. I don't give him as much credit for last year as some do, as he clearly didn't intend for that team to compete. Building up the best farm system in baseball is great, and I'm happy about it, but the sole metric I'll be judging him on from here on out is the W-L record.