Chayce McDermott 2023

[Just Regular]

The 2.49 is good for 2nd in the IL among 50 IP Arms.     I wouldn't have guessed that we have the 1st place guy as well, but Crash Davis gonna crash.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2&stats=pit&qual=50&type=1&team=all&season=2023&seasonEnd=2023&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=16,1

There is the 40-man consideration, but he and Jack Flaherty are giving the Sigbot data at the same time.

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by Just Regular

[Tony-OH]

Another good statistical start for McDermott but the command was not there finding the zone only 43% of the time and only 39% with his fastball. He did get hitters to chase 40% of the time with a 30% whiff rate on the heater.

His slider was his best pitch last night, landing it 52% of the time and getting just a 64% contact on the pitch with a 47% whiff overall.

I don't know if the plan was to work on the slider command at the expense of the changeup, but I'd like to see him throw that more than 2 times a game. 

I'd put this outing squarely in the "C-grade" category despite the good numbers statistically because this would probably not have ended up a good start against major league hitters due to the lack of fastball command.

 

[Just Regular]

D'oh.      It might be this is a wrap for his season, but I'd guess the fancy "AAA championship" is an occasion for the players, and perhaps also something Elias would want important pitchers to get the experience of, even if he isn't splitting hairs of September 30 pitch quality vs. some of the Orioles.

 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

D'oh.      It might be this is a wrap for his season, but I'd guess the fancy "AAA championship" is an occasion for the players, and perhaps also something Elias would want important pitchers to get the experience of, even if he isn't splitting hairs of September 30 pitch quality vs. some of the Orioles.

 

There’s still another 13 days left in Norfolk’s regular season. 

Edited September 16, 2023 by Frobby

[LookinUp]

It looks like McDermott wasn't available for the international league championship series, unless I missed it. Hopefully this is a minor injury. I love his development this season.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Chayce won the Jim Palmer MIL pitcher of the year. 

[sportsfan8703]

The hitters get the pub, but it’s really nice knowing that we’ll have McDermott and Povich getting seasoning in AAA next year and not just rushing them. Maybe Seth Johnson and Peek are in the mix too in AAA.  

[btdart20]

47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The hitters get the pub, but it’s really nice knowing that we’ll have McDermott and Povich getting seasoning in AAA next year and not just rushing them. Maybe Seth Johnson and Peek are in the mix too in AAA.  

Here's a few interesting AAA stat lines mixed together.  IMO, Player A has the best line and Player E has the most ground to gain.  But B, C, and D are interesting for this conversation.

Player A – 14 GS, 69.2 IP, 2.20 ERA (2.04 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, 35.8% K%, 7.7% BB%, 41.3% GB%

 

Player B – 8 GS, 50.2 IP, 2.49 ERA (3.47 FIP), 1.01 WHIP, 31.2% K%, 11.7% BB%, 36% GB%

 

Player C – 20 GS, 118.1 IP, 3.42 ERA (3.11 FIP), 1.32 WHIP,  23.9% K%, 7.9% BB%, 51.1% GB%

 

Player D – 13 GS, 66.1 IP, 4.61 ERA (3.56 FIP), 1.45 WHIP, 24.4% K%, 10.3% BB%, 56.9% GB%

 

Player E – 10 GS, 45.1 IP, 5.36 ERA (4.94 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 26.9% K%, 14.7% BB%, 41.8% GB%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player A = Grayson

Player B = McDermott - I like his line better than Gray's and Fried's.  Not quite Grayson level, but really good.

Player C = Sonny Gray

Player D = Max Fried

Player E = Povich - and he's shown promise in his AAA cup of coffee.  

[LookinUp]

I just want the O's to put something out about McDermott doing offseason work or otherwise being healthy. I don't want crickets. I fear the injury.

[Jim'sKid26]

On 10/5/2023 at 9:39 AM, btdart20 said:

Here's a few interesting AAA stat lines mixed together.  IMO, Player A has the best line and Player E has the most ground to gain.  But B, C, and D are interesting for this conversation.

Player A – 14 GS, 69.2 IP, 2.20 ERA (2.04 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, 35.8% K%, 7.7% BB%, 41.3% GB%

 

Player B – 8 GS, 50.2 IP, 2.49 ERA (3.47 FIP), 1.01 WHIP, 31.2% K%, 11.7% BB%, 36% GB%

 

Player C – 20 GS, 118.1 IP, 3.42 ERA (3.11 FIP), 1.32 WHIP,  23.9% K%, 7.9% BB%, 51.1% GB%

 

Player D – 13 GS, 66.1 IP, 4.61 ERA (3.56 FIP), 1.45 WHIP, 24.4% K%, 10.3% BB%, 56.9% GB%

 

Player E – 10 GS, 45.1 IP, 5.36 ERA (4.94 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 26.9% K%, 14.7% BB%, 41.8% GB%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player A = Grayson

Player B = McDermott - I like his line better than Gray's and Fried's.  Not quite Grayson level, but really good.

Player C = Sonny Gray

Player D = Max Fried

Player E = Povich - and he's shown promise in his AAA cup of coffee.  

Interesting comparison.

What do you think he needs to work on? What gets him to the next level? I see the BB% is not where you would want. If you were the director of pitching what would you tell him to do in the off season besides get some rest?

[btdart20]

22 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Interesting comparison.

What do you think he needs to work on? What gets him to the next level? I see the BB% is not where you would want. If you were the director of pitching what would you tell him to do in the off season besides get some rest?

I don't have access to that type of information.  And quite honestly, that's not a real strength of mine anyway. 

From a stats perspective, he had two big questions heading into 2023:

1. Lowering the walk rate and he's answered that question.  

2. Facing LHH and he's done that as well.

Obviously, showing he can continue doing that heading into ST in 2024 will solidify that progress.

 

I've seen that commentary that his slider has a higher spin rate than Bradish's but don't have numbers to back that up.  Even if it's close, that's quite the comp.  Pair that with a mid-90's FB. a 12-6 CB, and a CH and he's got quite a few ways to attack any hitter.

Here's a game against Gwinnett (ATL) and you see the SL is probably the least grouped.  So he could work on control there.  Don't know if that's "normal" but researching that is a game-by-game thing.

Pitcher Game Visualization Report | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

My concern for McDermott would be the Babip.  It's been .192, .243, .218 since he's been promoted to AA/AAA.  A bunch of that is the really high IFFB%.  A plus riding 4seamer and 12-6 CB can do that but I don't know what's causing the IFFB%.  Is it repeatable or will they be LD or HRs in the MLB?  Which is interesting because his HR/9 is sub-1.00 for 2023.  Maybe @nvpacchi or @Stotle or @Tony-OH have some thoughts?  

Generically: conditioning and mechanical repeatability (esp. the slider).

[nvpacchi]

On 10/6/2023 at 11:56 AM, btdart20 said:

I don't have access to that type of information.  And quite honestly, that's not a real strength of mine anyway. 

From a stats perspective, he had two big questions heading into 2023:

1. Lowering the walk rate and he's answered that question.  

2. Facing LHH and he's done that as well.

Obviously, showing he can continue doing that heading into ST in 2024 will solidify that progress.

 

I've seen that commentary that his slider has a higher spin rate than Bradish's but don't have numbers to back that up.  Even if it's close, that's quite the comp.  Pair that with a mid-90's FB. a 12-6 CB, and a CH and he's got quite a few ways to attack any hitter.

Here's a game against Gwinnett (ATL) and you see the SL is probably the least grouped.  So he could work on control there.  Don't know if that's "normal" but researching that is a game-by-game thing.

Pitcher Game Visualization Report | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

My concern for McDermott would be the Babip.  It's been .192, .243, .218 since he's been promoted to AA/AAA.  A bunch of that is the really high IFFB%.  A plus riding 4seamer and 12-6 CB can do that but I don't know what's causing the IFFB%.  Is it repeatable or will they be LD or HRs in the MLB?  Which is interesting because his HR/9 is sub-1.00 for 2023.  Maybe @nvpacchi or @Stotle or @Tony-OH have some thoughts?  

Generically: conditioning and mechanical repeatability (esp. the slider).

@btdart20remind me in a few weeks if I haven't responded. I found a way to access AAA statcast data, I just need to hunker down and get the game codes to do a bit of analysis (which I've been meaning to do)

 

The variance in the SL shape you allude to, feels like a really strong hypothesis to begin with. it plagued Grayson a bit early on and probably makes his overall command worse since he doesn't know what shape is coming out of his hand every time.  oppositely its hilarious to then look at deGroms slider and see the pristine shape it has pitch after pitch. but thats why he's an 80 command guy and the best pitcher of the last decade. 

 

[nvpacchi]

 

NOTE, ignore the chase rate data for now. screwed up my tables and understated it

So I did some digging into McDermott's arsenal in AAA this year and found some interesting tid bits , especially regarding his slider.  But before we get into the slider mix, let's look at his overall mix and some pitch level data.

 

Overall a pretty nice arsenal.  The fastball, albeit average velocity, ranks really well for induced vertical break as well as a vertical attack angle.  Its difficult to garner a full story on these metrics without any data available on his release point.  If someone like Tyler Wells had a 17" ivb on his fastball it would be unimpressive, given his high release point, however; for someone like McDermott who probably has a release point somewhere closer to Grayson - it probably comes in above average - same with the VAA.

Additionally both his curve and slider do really well generating swinging strikes, and even the change up looks to be an out pitch (55 pitches makes it more of a wait and see rather than anything definitive).

Now let's dig into the slider a bit, here's his movement profile for all his pitches:

 

Let's get one caveat out of the way.  The AAA statcast data has two vertical ivb data points (pfx_z and ivb).  They differ dramatically and i'm not really sure what they're measuring differently.  The chart above is pfx_z, but the data in the table above is ivb.  The ivb statistic, at least for fastballs, looked far more realistic given what other pitchers in the majors register.  If McDermott truly had a 4S with an ivb around 10-11", the pitch would probably A- suck B- be labeled as a sinker.  So purely for illustration purposes I'm using pfx_z instead of ivb.

Now to the slider - take a look at the two different clusters - there are enough datapoints to suggest that he has a slider with two different movement profiles.  Either intentional or unintentional.  IF we bucket them out and look at those sliders individually, it is definitely possible he's toying around with two pitches - the tabular data confirms it further.

I label the pitch with less horizonal movement as a gyro, and the other one a sweeper.

As you can see the gyro slider is 2 MPH faster with about 5 less inches of horizontal break.  Interestingly, both sliders produce similar results in different ways.  More swing and miss and chase with the sweeper, but he's able to get more called strikes with the gyro (based off csw).

Also the gyro had a .280 BAA (25 balls in play) compared to a .090! BAA on the sweeper (albeit only 11 balls in play).

McDermott probably still has some work to do on his location, but the good thing it seems with the sweeper: when he misses its not up in the zone where damage can be done.  Oppositely on the gyro, lots of stuff over the heart of the plate, maybe not a bad thing, but the .280 BAA suggests that the placement could be better - especially against MLB hitters when he advances.

 

Still the arsenal looks super interesting.  A nice fastball, a great looking curve, two sliders to attack hitters, as well as the potential for a change-up - the stuff is definitely there.  Eno's stuff+ at least confirms this directionally ranking him at 101 stuff for his full mix of pitches (don't no the split by pitch sadly).  @btdart20 hope this helps a little bit!

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by nvpacchi

[Frobby]

If that representation of the strike zone is to scale, then some of his pitches appear to be well underground.   It gives new meaning to the term “tunneling.”

[btdart20]

@nvpacchi - Really cool breakdown! 

How did you get to VAA?  It's a tough one to understand in isolation, but the VAA on his 4S seems on the plus side of average-ish to me.  With how it played in AAA, I was assuming a lower number.  Any idea on release height (esp for the 4S)? 

Interesting note on the slider and could explain what I saw as control issues since they weren't grouped as tight.