Bautista 2023

[TopGunnar]

Somebody hit right on the head last night. Bautista just isn’t a guy you hand the ball over to when you’re only up 1. He’s too volatile. He’s now blown 4 saves and it’s only May. 
 

i think Hyde gives some consideration to swapping Cano and Bautista.

[Can_of_corn]

So the blown saves happen in the eighth instead of the ninth?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Somebody hit right on the head last night. Bautista just isn’t a guy you hand the ball over to when you’re only up 1. He’s too volatile. He’s now blown 4 saves and it’s only May. 
 

i think Hyde gives some consideration to swapping Cano and Bautista.

That’s one of those things people says but I’m guessing whoever said that provided zero evidence to how he does in 1 run games and how that compares to the rest of the league.

In other words, it’s complete bs.

Like any pitcher who throws an elite secondary breaking pitching, sometimes the ball hangs. That happened last night.

I think you can question the pitch call as much as the pitch.

Either way, he’s an elite closer who isn’t going to be perfect all the time. 
 

And btw, if Cano is better (probably is right now but doesn’t mean he is better overall), you should want him in the higher leverage situations, which they normally are in the 7th and 8th inning.

[tntoriole]

The truly miniscule number of elite closers throw one unhittable pitch… Mariano, peak Zack …. The second tier really good closers throw more than one and are inevitably going to make more mistakes occasionally with a pitch .

He reminds me of Armando Benitez .. nerve wracking.. usually effective but nerve wracking. 

[Aristotelian]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So the blown saves happen in the eighth instead of the ninth?

Agreed. Rather than have one guy be "closer", what we should really do is use Cano in the highest leverage. If Judge comes up in the 9th, use Cano in the 9th. If he comes up in the 8th, use Cano in the 8th.

Of course, Cano came up in the 7th and 9th, so the committee approach doesn't fully solve the problem. Bautista or someone other than Cano will have to step up and face judge in a high leverage spot. Ideally Bautista would learn to not throw meatballs dead center on 0-2.  

[glenn__davis]

I mean Cano's been getting squared up a little better lately as well.  NYY got 3 hits on him last night and bailed him out with a bad squeeze attempt.

The blown saves thing is a bit misleading for Felix.  1 came off the McKenna drop.  1 came in extra innings with a guy starting on 2nd.  Really not fair to count that in my opinion.

The fastball was elite last night.  Wish they would have just stuck with that to Judge.  I wouldn't be throwing many splitters in a 1-run game until he starts to command it more consistently.

[RZNJ]

48 strikeouts in 24 innings.   He was just fantastic against Toronto and made a terrible pitch last night.  Bautista should be the least of our worries.

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

48 strikeouts in 24 innings.   He was just fantastic against Toronto and made a terrible pitch last night.  Bautista should be the least of our worries.

Agree whole-heartedly, but I still think I'd be hesitant to use the splitter right now in a 1-run game.  Just too inconsistent.

If he throws 101 to Judge and he hits out, tip your cap to him.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

Agree whole-heartedly, but I still think I'd be hesitant to use the splitter right now in a 1-run game.  Just too inconsistent.

If he throws 101 to Judge and he hits out, tip your cap to him.

Even when the splitter was more consistent I felt Adley and Bautista went to it too much.  I agree.

[tntoriole]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Agree whole-heartedly, but I still think I'd be hesitant to use the splitter right now in a 1-run game.  Just too inconsistent.

If he throws 101 to Judge and he hits out, tip your cap to him.

My approach would be is Judge does not get a strike to hit in these situations, ever.  He walks, he walks.. but he is not going to win the game.  Somebody else may but not him .  The Bonds approach 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Three strikeouts and 1 HR, against a guy who hit 62 last year, and of course people are in here complaining about Felix. 

If you can’t throw him a better pitch than that, then don’t throw him a pitch at all.  

I happen to really like Felix. But his current lack of command of the splitter is a problem.  I thought he was getting it back the last 3-4 appearances, but last night was a real setback.  

I remember the year Jim Johnson had 50 saves, blew 8, and just got excoriated around here.   Well, Felix has 11 saves and has blown 4, less than 1/3 of the wsy through the season.  Do the math, that’s awful.  

Now, I realize that there are some extenuating circumstances here: the McKenna dropped fly ball, and the extra inning ghost runner rule leading to one of the blown saves.  But even so, 4 blown saves at this stage of the season isn’t good.  I am not at all suggesting that we pull Felix from the closer role at this point.  But I’m really hoping he figures out what he’s doing wrong with his splitter, and soon. 


 

[sportsfan8703]

It's just a learning experience for Bautista.  Remember, that it's only his 1st full year closing and 2nd year in the MLB.  Better to happen in May than September.  

[Punchandjudy]

Seems like the Mountain has lost both command and control of his fastball and splitty.  I’m surprised he doesn’t utilize the slider more.  Seems like his mechanics are slightly off and to compensate be overthrows both.  His fastball has enough carry to mitigate some of his issues but the split finger either dives into the dirt 58 feet later or hangs.  Occasionally, last year’s splitty resurfaces but it’s more miss than hit.

My issue with the Judge pitch goes back to the Torres at bat where he hung the pitch he struck Gleyber out on.  Torres swung at the pitch and Bautista got away with it but he got away with it and Adley/Holt/Hyder/whoever is calling pitches should have seen that.  
 

That pitch didn’t lose the game-the dumbass ghost runner rule sucks and gives home teams a distinct advantage. Can’t believe we are still watching that bs still.  Felix will be just fine just needs a few tweaks like Perez got. 

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

My approach would be is Judge does not get a strike to hit in these situations, ever.  He walks, he walks.. but he is not going to win the game.  Somebody else may but not him .  The Bonds approach 

He didn’t win the game. He tied it.  You can pitch around him but makes little sense to put the tying run on base and likely in scoring position given how easy it is to run on Bautista

[LA2]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

If you can’t throw him a better pitch than that, then don’t throw him a pitch at all.  

I happen to really like Felix. But his current lack of command of the splitter is a problem.  I thought he was getting it back the last 3-4 appearances, but last night was a real setback.  

I remember the year Jim Johnson had 50 saves, blew 8, and just got excoriated around here.   Well, Felix has 11 saves and has blown 4, less than 1/3 of the wsy through the season.  Do the math, that’s awful.  

Now, I realize that there are some extenuating circumstances here: the McKenna dropped fly ball, and the extra inning ghost runner rule leading to one of the blown saves.  But even so, 4 blown saves at this stage of the season isn’t good.  I am not at all suggesting that we pull Felix from the closer role at this point.  But I’m really hoping he figures out what he’s doing wrong with his splitter, and soon. 


 

So let's say then that McKenna doesn't drop the ball and Bautista's record is 12 saves / 3 blown, as I think it is fair to do. Multiplied by 3.375 (162 games / 48 g played) that wd yield a total of 41 Saves (40.5) / 10 blown. Basically, an 80% saves rate in 49-50 save opps.

Among the elite relievers of 2022 (let's set the bar at 30 saves, i.e. the top ten in MLB), that record is closest to Kelley Jansen with the Braves, at 41/7 (85%, 48 opps). Note also that Jansen was the only closer to come near the projected 49-50 opp of Bautista--the other 40+ opps closers ranged from 40 to 46 (Clase, Hendricks, Hader, Romano, and Taylor Rogers and his 4.76 ERA).

On the other hand, the projected saves ratio of 80% would have placed him a lowly 9th among the ten closers with 30 or more saves and 8th among the relievers with the top ten number of save opps.

If the Orioles want to go all the way, they need a top-notch closer. Bautista's record has to be better from here on out. Using him more flexibly in tandem with Cano (assuming he remains superb), with smarter pitch calls, and keeping in mind that not every batter is Aaron Judge, I think it's worth a try. He did strike out the side last night. One poorly called, poorly executed pitch is what we're so upset about.