Hyde: Mounty is not aiming the ball well

[24fps]

56 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Man, I totally agree, the fake smile bothers me for some reason. It wouldn't bother me if he had a .900 OPS but I can't overlook it when he's hitting .730.

It's the moustache, it's gotta be the moustache.  The baseball gods want big moustaches like Rollie Fingers and Eck

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

I completely agree with this, and couldn't believe in a thread a week or two ago Mountcastle was being criticized for not scooping three throws one game....and no mention of the players who didn't get the throws to first base in the air.  Typically, when that happens, it's a throwing error.....I just think some folks just want to criticize this guy even for things that aren't primarily his fault.  

Nobody is saying the other fielders don’t bear some, and in most cases, most of the blame.  But good 1B bail out their infielders most of the time.  When you have three shots in one game and miss all three, that’s a subpar day even if it’s the other fielders’ fault they bounced the throws.  

Back to offense, there’s no doubt he’s been very unlucky so far this year.  The plate discipline problems aren’t getting any better, and that’s a shame.  But I expect when the dust clears, Mountcastke will be over 110 OPS+ so long as he keeps hitting the ball hard when he hits it.  
 

[sevastras]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

His fielding would look better if the other fielders could throw.

As for the extent of luck?

It's luck, if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 500 times in a row it's still 50/50 on flip 501.

Do you think he's cursed?

If Kjrestad pushes him off first fine, although I cringe at spending a 1-2 pick on a 1B.

Hasn’t been that long since the tank for Tork theme, but I get the sentiment. I didn’t want a catcher at 1-1 but turns out Rutschman is kind of good for any position. 

[ShoelesJoe]

Mountcastle is now hitting .191 / .222 / .324 vs RH pitching, .297 / .308 / .649 against southpaws. All of Ryan O'Hearn's ABs have been against RH pitching, and so far he's putting up a .400 / .462/ .500 line against them. Obviously SSS applies, but I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable with O'Hearn facing a RH in a big situation than Mountcastle right now. 

[Orioles0615]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

When his barrel%, hard hit %, exit velocity and stuff stop being very good?

As for a replacement, you did see where Kjerstad has been starting at first right?

 

To quote Moneyball, "if he's a good hitter than why doesn't he hit good"

[RZNJ]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Mountcastle was unlucky swinging at ball 4 in the 9th tonight. 

Twice.

[LA2]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Mountcastle is now hitting .191 / .222 / .324 vs RH pitching, .297 / .308 / .649 against southpaws. All of Ryan O'Hearn's ABs have been against RH pitching, and so far he's putting up a .400 / .462/ .500 line against them. Obviously SSS applies, but I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable with O'Hearn facing a RH in a big situation than Mountcastle right now. 

In 1456 career PAs, Mountcastle's OPS vs. RHP is .758 and vs. LHP is .784.

In 923 career PAs vs. RHP, O'Hearn's OPS is .717.

In 16 PAs vs. RHP this season, O'Hearn's OPS is .760.

[RZNJ]

0 extra base hits and 1 RBI in his last 14 games.  That’s not luck.   His bat looks slow right now.   It’s a slump but he’s definitely not swinging well.

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, LA2 said:

In 16 PAs vs. RHP this season, O'Hearn's OPS is .760.

And in 75 PAs vs RH this season Mountcastle's OPS is .546. Yes, Mountcastle has done better in the past facing RH pitchers than he has so far this year. But that was then this is now. Right here right now O'Hearn is putting up the better numbers in those situations. Can that change? Of course. But once an AB is wasted it's gone forever, and Mountcastle is wasting a whole lot of ABs against RH pitchers these days. 

[LA2]

39 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

And in 75 PAs vs RH this season Mountcastle's OPS is .546. Yes, Mountcastle has done better in the past facing RH pitchers than he has so far this year. But that was then this is now. Right here right now O'Hearn is putting up the better numbers in those situations. Can that change? Of course. But once an AB is wasted it's gone forever, and Mountcastle is wasting a whole lot of ABs against RH pitchers these days. 

I'm not against O'Hearn spelling Mountcastle or a RFer once in a while against the right right-handed pitching. What I'm against is recasting Mountcastle as a minority share of at-bats (i.e. vs. LHP-only) platoon player in favor of someone who has never shown any flash except in a limited first season based on 16 plate appearances. If Mountcastle were a lefty hitter and O'Hearn was a hot right-handed swinging 1st baseman with a decent glove--or even Steve Pearce "in his prime"--maybe.

[royalstillman]

All this crying about Mountcastle. Now there's a story in the Baltimore Sun poo pooing about it and he's asking himself what did he do to deserve it. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

And in 75 PAs vs RH this season Mountcastle's OPS is .546. Yes, Mountcastle has done better in the past facing RH pitchers than he has so far this year. But that was then this is now. Right here right now O'Hearn is putting up the better numbers in those situations. Can that change? Of course. But once an AB is wasted it's gone forever, and Mountcastle is wasting a whole lot of ABs against RH pitchers these days. 

I don’t believe in “that was then and this is now” when it comes to a 26-year old ballplayer who’s had a bad couple of weeks.  You can’t bench a streaky player whenever he gets a bit cold, or you’ll miss the periods when he gets hot.  

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

0 extra base hits and 1 RBI in his last 14 games.  That’s not luck.   His bat looks slow right now.   It’s a slump but he’s definitely not swinging well.

Does he have options?  If nothing else, it could jolt him into being willing to make changes to his hitting.

[royalstillman]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Does he have options?  If nothing else, it could jolt him into being willing to make changes to his hitting.

In the Sun article, he states he doesn't need to change his approach. He thinks it's maybe because he's a nice guy. What a ridiculous story.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

0 extra base hits and 1 RBI in his last 14 games.  That’s not luck.   His bat looks slow right now.   It’s a slump but he’s definitely not swinging well.

Oh, I think there’s been some bad luck mixed in as well.  But yes I’d imagine he’s not hitting the ball as hard lately.  Interestingly, he’s only struck out 9 times in the 14 games you mention.  Prior to that, he’d had 17 strikeouts in 13 games but a .972 OPS.   His BABIP was .250 in the first 13, .245 in the most recent 14.   Both suggest some bad luck, along with his wOBA/xwOBA gap.  But BABIP and luck don’t come into play when you hit it 420 feet, which he hasn’t done lately.