How much longer can we endure Mountcastle's and Mateo's OBP?

[Big Mac]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I’d like to study this in a more systematic way.  My memory isn’t that good either way, but off the top of my head, I believe last year Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena started extremely well.  Checking — Kwan: .825 OPS in his first 101 PA.  Pena: .800 OPS in his first 100 PA.  This year: Ryan Noda .915 in his first 103 PA, Blake Sabol .803 in his first 100 PA.

Again, I’m not arguing that the odds favor Westburg blazing out of the gate.  But it does happen. 

I think it's also worth noting that Westburg is much more seasoned than some of the other top prospect sthat have come up and struggled out of the gate.  I mean, he has 594 AAA plate appearances at this point.  He isn't some 21/22 year old kid jumping from AA or after a brief AAA stint.  I'd like to think that experience would mitigate the transition period to ML pitching, but who knows.

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I think it's also worth noting that Westburg is much more seasoned than some of the other top prospect sthat have come up and struggled out of the gate.  I mean, he has 594 AAA plate appearances at this point.  He isn't some 21/22 year old kid jumping from AA or after a brief AAA stint.  I'd like to think that experience would mitigate the transition period to ML pitching, but who knows.

I believe it can help and it most certainly doesn’t hurt. However, IMO the real acclimation comes from the jump in competition/ the increase in talent from the opposition from AAA to the Majors. Just think about last night’s starter for the Yankees, Garret Cole. You don’t get to face any comparable starters to him. I mean when we consider that Grayson was considered the cream of the crop for an AAA pitcher coming into the season and when you think about how far he is from a Gausman or Cole in terms of pitch location (because they all have dynamic velo) to me that’s the difference. Westburg has no doubt faced some good pitchers in his AAA time, both nothing like he will face regular when he comes to the show. 

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I think it's also worth noting that Westburg is much more seasoned than some of the other top prospect sthat have come up and struggled out of the gate.  I mean, he has 594 AAA plate appearances at this point.  He isn't some 21/22 year old kid jumping from AA or after a brief AAA stint.  I'd like to think that experience would mitigate the transition period to ML pitching, but who knows.

That’s a good question.  

[foxfield]

I think what we are going to see is more of what we are seeing.  Ortiz, Westburg will continue to get chances.  Mateo certainly should feel some pressure.  His March and April were HOF stuff.  His May is likely his worst month as a pro.  Ortiz is quietly building and is going to get more time if Mateo reaches and .700 OPS and falling.  Same with Montcastle but he likely has more time.

Cowser will also likely make an appearance once healthy.  I think everyone will get their chance.  

I would add, that Urias will also be back which will help and of course, it will be unpopular, but this is why Frazier is here.  It isn't to take ABs away from anyone...its to provide a solid floor and he is doing that.  

Of course don't take that to mean I was on board when it happened....I was not.

[Jagwar]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I will say that it is shocking that Mateo’s OPS is almost under 700. No one could have seen that coming!  

I'm going to market a new T-shirt.

"Sports Guy Was Right"

[Billy F-Face3]

7 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I can't speak for others, but to me Matteo's speed is a valuable offensive asset that is reflected only partially in batting statistics. Stealing bases, taking extra bases, distracting pitchers all contribute to scoring runs in ways that don't show up in OBP, SLG, OPS or BA. Even if his starts and ABs are reduced, which is where things seem to be headed, his speed (and ability to steal bases) can be useful if he pinch runs for other guys who get on base, especially for a team that seems to play so many close games.

Best way to see a representation of how valuable base stealing ability is, is to look at wRC and wRC+. Guys who can steal bases and also have good fielding statistics tend to see their wRC sky-rocket when compared to their peers who do not have such ability.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Best way to see a representation of how valuable base stealing ability is, is to look at wRC and wRC+. Guys who can steal bases and also have good fielding statistics tend to see their wRC sky-rocket when compared to their peers who do not have such ability.

The formula for wRC is:

wRC = (((wOBA-League wOBA)/wOBA Scale)+(League R/PA))*PA

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

2 BBs and a hit from Mateo in the last few games.  Is he snapping out of it?

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

2 BBs and a hit from Mateo in the last few games.  Is he snapping out of it?

He won't hit .100 for much longer.  The wheel spins but where it ends nobody knows.

[Os4days]

Regardless of his batting, his defense was outstanding tonight. 

[Brooks The Great]

1 hour ago, Os4days said:

Regardless of his batting, his defense was outstanding tonight. 

Ortiz can bring outstanding defense and better hitting, though. That's why I expect Ortiz to replace Mateo as the everyday SS eventually.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Pickles said:

He won't hit .100 for much longer.  The wheel spins but where it ends nobody knows.

The pitches he laid off from Cortes on his walk were encouraging. He kept working him away and he didn’t go fishing.  Maybe he is starting to see the ball better.

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Ortiz can bring outstanding defense and better hitting, though. That's why I expect Ortiz to replace Mateo as the everyday SS eventually.

I certainly hope he hits but I don't think we know how he will do. He hit very well at Norfolk but not so well at Bowie. Overall his minor league stats suggest an incremental upgrade over Mateo. That might be enough. Being RH, it could be more of a platoon situation. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I certainly hope he hits but I don't think we know how he will do. He hit very well at Norfolk but not so well at Bowie. Overall his minor league stats suggest an incremental upgrade over Mateo. That might be enough. Being RH, it could be more of a platoon situation. 

You do know the circumstances surrounding him at AA right?

And btw, he still performed well in AA. 

[turtlebowl]

20 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

No, not IMO. The chances of Westburg coming to the show and immediately outhitting Mountcastle are EXTREMELY LOW. What makes you confident that he can immediately succeed, where so many others (much more talented prospects like Gunnar, Adley, Grayson, etc.) have struggled?

Never said there were guarantees.  I will say that long term Westburg will get on base more than Mounty and I think that happens immediately even with the adjustment period.  So what is more valuable, A .280 OBP with power, or a likely more well rounded bat with better on base skills with slightly less power?  Not to mention you are opening up opportunity for one of your best prospects in your organization. 

I like Mountcastle but I believe Westburg has the better bat long term so I hate the thought of trading him which seems like a likely outcome when he could be a better player than what you are putting out at first everyday right now.  

These are tough decisions that the front office is going to have to make in the next several months.