Gunnar Henderson's Career Start Compared to Cal Ripken Jr's

[Billy F-Face3]

Cal and Gunnar have a lot in common with each other.

-Both were 2nd round draft picks.

-Both are big guys with somewhat similarly built frames. Gunnar is 6'3 220lbs. Cal was 6'4, 200lbs.

-Both came into the Big Leagues splitting time between Third Base and Shortstop.

-Cal was called up at the end of the season at age 20 and played in 23 games. Gunnar was called up at the end of the season at a similar age (21) and played in 34 games.

-Cal's stat line from being called up in 1981 was a .128 BA .150 OBP .128 SLG, for a OPS of 278. By contrast, Gunnar's stat line from his 1st taste of the Big Leagues in 2022 was .259/.348/.440 for an OPS of .788. So Cal= .128/.150/.128/.278 vs Gunnar= .259/.348/.440/.788.

-By age 22, both Cal Jr. and Gunnar Henderson have nearly an identical Walk to strikeout ratio.

-At age 21, Cal had a wOBA of 0.347. At age 21, Gunnar had a wOBA of .343. It's very close.

 

Now with that said, most of the other stats are more unbalanced. Cal is a Hall of Fame player and a superior player to most, and the Ironman is One Of a Kind. Hall of Fame players are rare. But I think Cal sees a little bit of his younger self in young Gunnar, and I still think there are some parallels to draw on, and lessons to be parsed. Like all great players, Cal had a learning curve to become the all time great that he is, and Gunnar is currently going through is own learning Curve. Specifically right now, trying to figure out how to deal with good left handed MLB pitching. Right now through an equal amount of plate appearances, Gunnar has a significantly better Weighted Runs Created Plus, as well as a better Weighted On Base Average than Cal had through the same ABs. I think if if fans are patient, they might like watching Gunnar's career. If the team help's Gunnar play baseball loose and fun, just like he did growing up as a kid, he won't be tense at the plate and he'll continue to develop into the best version of himself as a hitter.  (Though, as I write this Comp, I can't help but feel I might be doing a disservice to Gunnar for making this post, because it could cause more fan expectations than he's already facing. Too many expectations are counter-productive.)

-UP TO DATE SAMPLE SIZE:

Cal's 1st 304 MLB plate appearances, compared to Gunnar's 1st career 303 MLB plate appearances....

• Batting Average: Cal's .253, Gunnar's .229                                                         
• On Base Percentage: Cal's .284, Gunnar's .343
• Slugging: Cal's .420, Gunnar's .407
• wRC+: Cal's 92, Gunnar's 114
• wOBA: Cal's .311, Gunnar's .331

(Statistical sources are FanGraphs and Baseball America.)

Cal's 1st 304 Plate Appearances recorded.

Gunnar Henderson's 303 Plate Appearances recorded through 5/28/2023

[owknows]

Helps to put things in perspective.

Thanks for posting it.

[Sanity Check]

All of the sudden (dead serious here), I'm feeling a lot better about the learning curve we're witnessing.  I think Gunnar is too good to fail, and I love the fact that he hates to fail.

[DirtyBird]

More rationalization for Gunnar hurting the team. Great

[Mr-splash]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

More rationalization for Gunnar hurting the team. Great

Hes been pedestrian in the field and he is overmatched against lefties. That said, his OBP is solid. Hes basically being carried by his ability to get on. Not much else is going right for him this season. Lucky for him though the ability to get on base is the most important skill there is for a position player.

[Sanity Check]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

More rationalization for Gunnar hurting the team. Great

I don't think they will let him "hurt the team" forever.  And I understand your (and a lot of people's) frustration and concern at this point...we all expected more than we've gotten.

And, I didn't see this as rationalization as much as perspective around how a difficult start can be turned around.

I haven't looked at the stats by month, but I believe he did better in May vs. April, and I know that hope isn't a strategy, but I'll hope anyway that June might be better than May.  

I know you're not believing in his progress to this point, but I also bet that you hope to be wrong come July.  I certainly hope you'll be wrong, only because it means we're seeing the upside we thought was there all along, just a little bit later than we would have liked.  But I get where you're coming from....

[Billy F-Face3]

Thank you. The moral of this post?...

Everything will be OK! Enjoy the Show!

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sanity Check said:

All of the sudden (dead serious here), I'm feeling a lot better about the learning curve we're witnessing.  I think Gunnar is too good to fail, and I love the fact that he hates to fail.

And, he’s not really failing.  Just not succeeding at quite the level we hoped yet.  But 98 OPS+, 100 wRC+, 0.6 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR 1/3 of the way through the season is far from awful.   

[Just Regular]

Also, Cal's look was more of a Luke Duke, and Gunnar is the spitting image of Bo Duke.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Cal and Gunnar have a lot in common with each other.

-Both were 2nd round draft picks.

-Both are big guys with somewhat similarly built frames. Gunnar is 6'3 220lbs. Cal was 6'4, 200lbs.

-Both came into the Big Leagues splitting time between Third Base and Shortstop.

-Cal was called up at the end of the season at age 20 and played in 23 games. Gunnar was called up at the end of the season at a similar age (21) and played in 34 games.

-Cal's stat line from being called up in 1981 was a .128 BA .150 OBP .128 SLG, for a OPS of 278. By contrast, Gunnar's stat line from his 1st taste of the Big Leagues in 2022 was .259/.348/.440 for an OPS of .788. So Cal= .128/.150/.128/.278 vs Gunnar= .259/.348/.440/.788.

-By age 22, both Cal Jr. and Gunnar Henderson have nearly an identical Walk to strikeout ratio.

-At age 21, Cal had a wOBA of 0.347. At age 21, Gunnar had a wOBA of .343. It's very close.

 

Now with that said, most of the other stats are more unbalanced. Cal is a Hall of Fame player and a superior player to most, and the Ironman is One Of a Kind. Hall of Fame players are rare. But I think Cal sees a little bit of his younger self in young Gunnar, and I still think there are some parallels to draw on, and lessons to be parsed. Like all great players, Cal had a learning curve to become the all time great that he is, and Gunnar is currently going through is own learning Curve. Specifically right now, trying to figure out how to deal with good left handed MLB pitching. Right now through an equal amount of plate appearances, Gunnar has a significantly better Weighted Runs Created Plus, as well as a better Weighted On Base Average than Cal had through the same ABs. I think if if fans are patient, they might like watching Gunnar's career. If the team help's Gunnar play baseball loose and fun, just like he did growing up as a kid, he won't be tense at the plate and he'll continue to develop into the best version of himself as a hitter.  (Though, as I write this Comp, I can't help but feel I might be doing a disservice to Gunnar for making this post, because it could cause more fan expectations than he's already facing. Too many expectations are counter-productive.)

-UP TO DATE SAMPLE SIZE:

Cal's 1st 304 MLB plate appearances, compared to Gunnar's 1st career 303 MLB plate appearances....

• Batting Average: Cal's .253, Gunnar's .229                                                         
• On Base Percentage: Cal's .284, Gunnar's .343
• Slugging: Cal's .420, Gunnar's .407
• wRC+: Cal's 92, Gunnar's 114
• wOBA: Cal's .311, Gunnar's .331

(Statistical sources are FanGraphs and Baseball America.)

Cal's 1st 304 Plate Appearances recorded.

Gunnar Henderson's 303 Plate Appearances recorded through 5/28/2023

Fair enough .. but then from Jun 1 of 1982 to the end of the season Cal was 126 WRC+ and AL ROY … et tu, Gunnar? 

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Fair enough .. but then from Jun 1 of 1982 to the end of the season Cal was 126 WRC+ and AL ROY … et tu, Gunnar? 

Like I said... Let's just enjoy the Show.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Like I said... Let's just enjoy the Show.

Of course, although Gunnar’s show has been pretty low rent theater thus far.  

[Billy F-Face3]

Big game winning Home Run today by Gunnar. Stay Tuned, folks. We haven't even arrived at the good times, yet.

[LA2]

On 5/29/2023 at 9:49 AM, Frobby said:

And, he’s not really failing.  Just not succeeding at quite the level we hoped yet.  But 98 OPS+, 100 wRC+, 0.6 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR 1/3 of the way through the season is far from awful.   

One area has has matched at least my expectations is the 7 HR in 165 AB. That projects to 21 over the 502 AB required for various titles.

[Jagwar]

On 5/29/2023 at 10:46 AM, tntoriole said:

Fair enough .. but then from Jun 1 of 1982 to the end of the season Cal was 126 WRC+ and AL ROY … et tu, Gunnar? 

I looked up Cal's OPS by month in 1982. Figured he hit the ground running for his ROY year. I was shocked to see he had a horrible April. Weaver was very patient with him. 

OPS by month

366... 848.. 880... 863... 764... 838