Specific Trade Ideas

[Greg Pappas]

44 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Don't we usually have a "Hot Stove" thread up around this time of year or is it still too early? A catch all for who is being traded and what team is talking to who etc..

Start up one.  Sounds good to me. 

[Bemorewins]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Your dreaming….they will want 4-5 guys including some blue chip guys.

They may want that, but I don't see any teams willing to give them that or even having to give them that. Of the teams with the best farm systems - The Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, Reds, Guardians, and Pirates, IMO none of them would be incentivized to offer such a package. All of those teams value their prospects. And only the Dodgers could afford to resign him from that group.

I can't see any sane GM (and certainly none from among those teams) giving up 4/5 prospects including "some blue chip guys" for 2 months of Ohtani. 

As great as Ohtani is (the best in the sport and maybe ever) the value is not there to justify making that kind of trade.

[FlipTheBird]

35 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

They may want that, but I don't see any teams willing to give them that or even having to give them that. Of the teams with the best farm systems - The Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, Reds, Guardians, and Pirates, IMO none of them would be incentivized to offer such a package. All of those teams value their prospects. And only the Dodgers could afford to resign him from that group.

I can't see any sane GM (and certainly none from among those teams) giving up 4/5 prospects including "some blue chip guys" for 2 months of Ohtani. 

As great as Ohtani is (the best in the sport and maybe ever) the value is not there to justify making that kind of trade.

You've got to look at acquiring Ohtani as acquiring the best bat in the league and the best pitching in the league in the same trade. Granted both guys are rentals, but that's still a ton of value.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

You've got to look at acquiring Ohtani as acquiring the best bat in the league and the best pitching in the league in the same trade. Granted both guys are rentals, but that's still a ton of value.

What you are saying is absolutely fact.  The player is a unique one of one with a tremendous set of skills which can be compare to the best TWO players. The problem for the Angels is that the teams with the most prospect capital are likely to not be incentivized to give them fair compensation.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

The reason these deals don’t happen is because you’re not getting any of these guys without giving up a couple legit prospects. Trying to deal quantity over quality is not going to work. And nobody wants Ryan Mountcastle.

It’s not quantity over quality…it’s more the cheap years of control over quality. Kremer and Irvin are not star players but they are reliable back-end MLB starters (and Kremer may be more than that) and not free agents until 2028 and 2027, respectively. Mountcastle is a free agent in 2027 and had a .362 xwOBA last year and .351 this year and seemingly healthy again. Still 92nd percentile in barrel % and xSLG this year. Some team will see the upside in that and getting him out of OPACY. I don’t think they have tremendous trade value and Irvin and Mountcastle certainly hurt their value this year, but they do have value.

All of those players except Goldschmidt are free agents this offseason. They aren’t going to return top prospects, although the Padres could get a pretty good one by dealing both Snell and Hader together. It’s about whether the Cardinals / Padres want MLB players with more control because they want to them for next season, or just the best prospects they can get. 

[FlipTheBird]

12 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

It’s not quantity over quality…it’s more the cheap years of control over quality. Kremer and Irvin are not star players but they are reliable back-end MLB starters (and Kremer may be more than that) and not free agents until 2028 and 2027, respectively. Mountcastle is a free agent in 2027 and had a .362 xwOBA last year and .351 this year and seemingly healthy again. Still 92nd percentile in barrel % and xSLG this year. Some team will see the upside in that and getting him out of OPACY. I don’t think they have tremendous trade value and Irvin and Mountcastle certainly hurt their value this year, but they do have value.

All of those players except Goldschmidt are free agents this offseason. They aren’t going to return top prospects, although the Padres could get a pretty good one by dealing both Snell and Hader together. It’s about whether the Cardinals / Padres want MLB players with more control because they want to them for next season, or just the best prospects they can get. 

You’re just trying to trade off our spare parts for better players. That’s not how it works. The Orioles aren’t getting guys like Goldschmidt without dealing at least one of our more well-regarded prospects. And if you’re looking for packages, it’ll take multiple well-regarded prospects.

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

They paid Frazier $8m. They have plenty of money to spend if they thought Santander was worth it. If they trade him it should be for the return, not for the money. They can also give him QO and you know Elias covets draft picks so any trade is going to have to be good.

A  Santader qualifying offer will be around 20 million.  You think they will take that chance he takes it and they have to pay him $20 million in 2025?  You domt spend millions on guys that are here one year when you have younger guys you should be extending in the next few off seasons  

[Billy F-Face3]

What do you guys think of J.P. Sears? I think it's possible the Orioles could get him at a bargain. I was impressed with how he played against us last season in 2022. Looking at his stats, he currently has a WHIP of 1.02 this season. The WHIP of an average pitcher is about 1.30, so that means JP Sears is doing pretty good with his Walks and Hits per Innings.

I wonder how much he would be able to help the team. We certainly could use more starters from the left handed side to take advantage of Walltimore in Left Field. 

I'm just thinking about how we might be able to get the best value at minimum cost. 

[HelenaEngineer]

If this is a repeat, I apologize in advance. I have been swamped and didn't have a chance to read all 20 pages.
What about reliever David Robertson of the Mets?

He is rental just for this year, is on a $10 million deal and has 12 saves and 1.97 ERA. Strikeouts over walks are 47:11 and he's has only allowed 30 hits in 41 innings.

Mets are 8.5 out of the last wild card and may be happy to dump salary and not want a whole lot in return. If the Birds can keep better prospects and just eat an expensive contract and give up a lesser prospect for 2.5 months of Robertson, that would appeal to me. They need some bullpen help.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

28 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:

If this is a repeat, I apologize in advance. I have been swamped and didn't have a chance to read all 20 pages.
What about reliever David Robertson of the Mets?

He is rental just for this year, is on a $10 million deal and has 12 saves and 1.97 ERA. Strikeouts over walks are 47:11 and he's has only allowed 30 hits in 41 innings.

Mets are 8.5 out of the last wild card and may be happy to dump salary and not want a whole lot in return. If the Birds can keep better prospects and just eat an expensive contract and give up a lesser prospect for 2.5 months of Robertson, that would appeal to me. They need some bullpen help.

Robertson would be a good pickup and given his age and salary the Mets asking price shouldn't be high. This is assuming the Angelos brothers are willing to pick up the remainder of Robertson's contract.

The time to start spending money on players is now and I'm hoping this is reflected by a trade or two at the deadline.

[FlipTheBird]

41 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

What do you guys think of J.P. Sears? I think it's possible the Orioles could get him at a bargain. I was impressed with how he played against us last season in 2022. Looking at his stats, he currently has a WHIP of 1.02 this season. The WHIP of an average pitcher is about 1.30, so that means JP Sears is doing pretty good with his Walks and Hits per Innings.

I wonder how much he would be able to help the team. We certainly could use more starters from the left handed side to take advantage of Walltimore in Left Field. 

I'm just thinking about how we might be able to get the best value at minimum cost. 

Huh? How motivated is Oakland to even move him? He’s a guy who is years and years away from arbitration and trending the right direction? Why would they move him? And if they did, why would it be at minimum value?

[Filmstudy]

1 hour ago, FlipTheBird said:

You’re just trying to trade off our spare parts for better players. That’s not how it works. The Orioles aren’t getting guys like Goldschmidt without dealing at least one of our more well-regarded prospects. And if you’re looking for packages, it’ll take multiple well-regarded prospects.

Who did you have in mind as a single prospect to trade for Goldschmidt?  Before you answer...

Goldschmidt:

1. Age 35 years, 319 days

2. Makes $22M pro rata the rest of this year and $26M next year, UFA 25

3. OPS+: 132, RAA: 14, WAA%: .516

4. Position: 1B

5. Subjective: He's a RHB who could help protect the Orioles predominantly LH lineup, but he may or may not have difficulty in OPACY.  Trading for him effectively eliminates Mountcastle, who is the primary reason the Orioles stats vs LH pitchers look as decent as they do.

Santander

1. Age 28 years, 271 days (7 years younger)

2. Makes $7.4M pro rata the rest of this year and perhaps $12-13M in 2024, UFA 25

3. OPS+: 134, RAA: 8, WAA%: .510

4. Position: RF/1B

5. Subjective: He has not been as good at OPACY as he has on the road in 2023, but his splits were reversed and even more pronounced in 2022.  In any case, I think we have a pretty good idea that OPACY does not ruin him the way it could a RH slugger.

I can buy the notion that Goldscmidt is still a little better than Santander for the remainder of 2023, but do I really want the risk that will persist through 2024 at the enormous price tag and unknown OPACY impact?  Nope.  All that means for sure is that I would not trade Santander for Goldschmidt straight up.  I still think Goldschmidt would help the Orioles down the stretch, but if the Orioles could not get a decent offer for Tony T, I'm thinking the tag on Goldschmidt should not be a top 100 prospect.

Sam Basallo (97) and Coby Mayo (75) are the last 2 Orioles in the MLB pipeline top 100.  Does anyone really want to give up either of them for Goldschmidt?

Edited July 17, 2023 by Filmstudy

[Billy F-Face3]

3 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Who did you have in mind as a single prospect to trade for Goldschmidt?  Before you answer...

Goldschmidt:

1. Age 35 years, 319 days

2. Makes $22M pro rata the rest of this year and $26M next year, UFA 25

3. OPS+: 132, RAA: 14, WAA%: .516

4. Position: 1B

5. Subjective: He's a RHB who could help protect the Orioles predominantly LH lineup, but he may or may not have difficulty in OPACY.  Trading for him effectively eliminates Mountcastle, who is the primary reason the Orioles stats vs LH pitchers look as decent as they do.

Santander

1. Age 28 years, 271 days (7 years younger)

2. Makes $7.4M pro rata the rest of this year and perhaps $12-13M in 2024, UFA 25

3. OPS+: 134, RAA: 8, WAA%: .510

4. Position: RF/1B

5. Subjective: He has not been as good at OPACY as he has on the road in 2023, but his splits were reversed and even more pronounced in 2022.  In any case, I think we have a pretty good idea that OPACY does not ruin him the way it could a RH slugger.

I can buy the notion that Goldscmidt is still a little better than Santander for the remainder of 2023, but do I really want the risk that will persist through 2024 at the enormous price tag and unknown OPACY impact?  Nope.  All that means for sure is that I would not trade Santander for Goldschmidt straight up.  I still think Goldschmidt would help the Orioles down the stretch, but if the Orioles could not get a decent offer for Tony T, I'm thinking the tag on Goldschmidt should not be a top 100 prospect.

Sam Basallo (97) and Coby Mayo (75) are the last 2 Orioles in the MLB pipeline top 100.  Does anyone really want to give up either of them for Goldschmidt?

Plus Mike Elias already said they have no motivation to persue position players at the moment. 

[Billy F-Face3]

34 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Huh? How motivated is Oakland to even move him? He’s a guy who is years and years away from arbitration and trending the right direction? Why would they move him? And if they did, why would it be at minimum value?

To get the answers to those questions you would have to pick up the phone and talk with Billy Bean about that. I was just putting out the idea as a feeler, which is how many negotiations begin. 

What I do know is that Elias has established a rapport with the A's front office the Hernaiz deal. 

[FlipTheBird]

4 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

To get the answers to those questions you would have to pick up the phone and talk with Billy Bean about that. I was just putting out the idea as a feeler, which is how many negotiations begin. 

What I do know is that Elias has established a rapport with the A's front office the Hernaiz deal. 

I’m just saying Sears would not be a cheap piece to acquire.