2023 1st Round Pick (#17): Enrique Bradfield Jr. - CF - (Jr) Vanderbilt University

[Flash- bd]

.311 BA at the college level isn't exactly the kind of average that would suggest really good contact skills, or am I wrong? 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

.311 BA at the college level isn't exactly the kind of average that would suggest really good contact skills, or am I wrong? 

Average seems to be the least important thing the Orioles use to evaluate.  He walked more than he struck out.   That’s usually a good sign.   If he hit .380, he’s probably gone inside the top ten.   The Orioles seem to prefer players who have disappointed somewhat statistically but offer athleticism, some good traits, and upside.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

.311 BA at the college level isn't exactly the kind of average that would suggest really good contact skills, or am I wrong? 

I guess that depends on the national average. In the past, no it wouldn’t be a big deal.

OToH, he’s playing in the best conference in the country and one that has some elite pitching, so that has to be taken into account.

[Flash- bd]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

He doesn't need to hit HR's. If he is truly one of the elite defensive players he just needs to get on base somehow. Take a look at Kiermaier's OPS+ over 11 years it's 98, he's been worth nearly 35 wins. He was worth 5.5 WAR slashing .246/.331/.410 with an OPS+ of 104.

Let's not kid ourselves that players are only valuable if they can hit the ball a long way. If he truly has elite defense and plate discipline, he'll be extremely valuable.

 

 

Thanks for the replies, was just curious. 

I'm a big fan of the pick myself (as an Elias stan or Frobbyite, depending on the terminology you prefer, that's kind of a given, I have seen enough to support any pick they make personally), that question notwithstanding. 

Totally agree with Malike's take above^^. 

I do feel like there is a bit of need actually in this pick...when I saw projections with infielders I thought to myself, a CF is really the one thing our system is a little thin in, and will need in the coming years as Mullins gets more expensive and begins to decline. So happy from that standpoint, too, he brings a profile that we're light on in our system. 

 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

.311 BA at the college level isn't exactly the kind of average that would suggest really good contact skills, or am I wrong? 

When I see "good contact skills," I interpret that to mean he doesn't strike out much.   122 times in 896 PA = 13.6%.  For context, here are the college numbers of some of our high profile draftees from the Elias era:

Cowser 12.0%

Norby 13.6%

Rutschman 14.3%

Ortiz 17.1%

Stowers 17.3%

Kjerstad 20.8%

Westburg 22.3%

Beavers 22.8%

Fabian 24.3%

So, Bradfield is definitely down at the low end of things.

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

I do feel like there is a bit of need actually in this pick...when I saw projections with infielders I thought to myself, a CF is really the one thing our system is a little thin in, and will need in the coming years as Mullins gets more expensive and begins to decline. So happy from that standpoint, too, he brings a profile that we're light on in our system. 

 

I think it's very likely he was best pick available that happened to align with a need. Several publications had Bradfield going near the back of the top ten, IIRC

[Gurgi]

We should have a very good idea what this kids future will be one year from now.  Can he get to Bowie by the end of next year?  Can he get on base enough to make use of world class speed?  Does his defensive rating of 80 really show up?  Pretty interesting questions.  

[Flash- bd]

3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I think it's very likely he was best pick available that happened to align with a need. Several publications had Bradfield going near the back of the top ten, IIRC

Oh yeah, totally agreed, I'm not saying that they drafted for need, I just meant that this is a pick where it seems like need and BPA aligned nicely. 

[Stotle]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

When I see "good contact skills," I interpret that to mean he doesn't strike out much.   122 times in 896 PA = 13.6%.  For context, here are the college numbers of some of our high profile draftees from the Elias era:

Cowser 12.0%

Norby 13.6%

Rutschman 14.3%

Ortiz 17.1%

Stowers 17.3%

Kjerstad 20.8%

Westburg 22.3%

Beavers 22.8%

Fabian 24.3%

So, Bradfield is definitely down at the low end of things.

I saw him a bunch last summer between USACNT and then when he showed up on the Cape. This is what. I wrote up at the time (and I believe still to be the case with his profile):

 

" One of the top talents in the 2023 draft class, Bradfield boasts top-of-the-scale speed that plays both on the bases and in the field. In addition to serving as a catalyst atop the Collegiate National Team batting order (.370 OBP), Bradfield flashed impressive defense in center field, where he also projects as a pro. The raw power is limited, but he can drive the gaps and run for days, giving him impact potential on offense, and he is a true game-changer on the bases. He can sometimes get a little too aggressive early, leading to contact on bad balls or forcing himself to hit from behind, but it’s a small nit so long as he keeps his K-rate where it’s been for the past two seasons (~14%) and finds his way onto the bases at a solid clip.  He entered the summer on a short list of collegiate talents already viewed as likely first-rounders for next summer, and his time with the USA Collegiate National Team hasn’t altered that expectation. Even without traditional power for the top of the draft, he’s got impact potential and should have plenty of suitors in the early goings. If he can manifest a little more pop and prove an elite on-base talent next spring with the ‘Dores, he could cement himself as a top 10 selection."

I would say he failed to show playable pop, continued to make contact (but not always quality contact), was a stud in center field and on the bases. This is about where he should have gone, all things equal. I think he is a better fit with Baltimore than in a lot of other places, for developmental reasons and based on team needs. A couple other notes worth mentioning:

1. This was his best collegiate year, w/r/t OBP-delta but his worst getting on other than walk/HBP. Biggest concern would be against top-end talent. I believe only three or four of his extra base hits came in series game 1s, or "Friday nights" (sometimes Thursday night for SEC play).

2. His post-season at the plate was not great. Taking his conference tourney and Regional games into account, he actually finished with a slash line of .275/.406/.425. Compare to the college bats selected ahead of him and right after him:

1:1 Crews -- .426/.567/.713
1:4 Langford -- .373/.498/.784
1:6 Wilson -- .411/.461/.635
1:11 Schanuel -- .444/.612/.864
1:12 Troy -- .392/.476/.696
1:13 Shaw -- .341/.445/.697
1:14 Teel -- .407/.475/.655
1:15 Gonzalez -- .327/.435/.564
1:17 Bradfield -- .275/.406/.425
1:18 Wilken -- .345/.506/.807
1:19 Taylor -- .308/.430/.631

I think there is value to work with on the offensive side, the import of stolen bases with rule changes (for example) and lack of strikeouts. But the power and quality contact need to bump up, and it's not a small deal. I'm sure Baltimore already knows what they are going to work on. As noted over the years, it isn't just strike zone command. Big League arms will simply challenge you to hit, and not nibble, if you can't do damage. That tends to drive down walk rates (and drive up strikeout rates b/c hitters are more often hitting from behind). He doesn't need to slug, but he will need to make quality contact and get on base and it's not a foregone conclusion that happens.

3. Some already mentioned, but this is a nice indicator that Baltimore really believes in its player value metrics that it is relying upon, and that A) it significantly takes into account advanced data regarding defense and base running and B) they are comfortable enough with it to draft college talents with these things taken into account, even if the rest of the traditional offensive profile isn't there. If Bradfield is a hit and he becomes a solid everyday guy, that's another big feather in the cap of the Orioles acquisition side of the front of the office.

4. As a fun anecdote, when driving down to Florida for spring break last year (2022) we stopped in Nashville and a buddy of mine and me took my oldest (then 11yo) to Vandy for the Friday night game against Florida. It was what you'd expect from two future orioles. 1st inning Fabian hit a homer into the back two rows of the left field bleachers, then struck out twice and singled to left on a hard hit ball. Bradfield went SO, soft groundout, two soft fly outs, then in the ninth inning snuck one through the right side. Stole second, advanced to third on an error, then scored the game winning run on a Bulger single. Bradfield also made two great catches to the gaps. 

Hope everyone is well; go O's.

 

 

 

[btdart20]

@Stotle - Thanks for sharing!

[DocJJ]

I'm concerned about the swing, and exploitable holes.  I know the O's have all kinds of professional hitting coaches who can try to work on it with him.  But we took a very high draft pick SS a few years ago Cadyn Grenier who needed a swing overhaul and that failed miserably.  Now we are trying it with Dylan Beavers, another very high draft pick needing a swing fix.  So far, not very impressive results at A ball.   Now we'll need to overhaul Bradfield's swing....

 

Not sure I like the risk in this pick considering who else we may have selected...

[Frobby]

Great insight, @Stotle.   Looking at the offensive numbers of the surrounding players, it’s pretty clear to me that the O’s think Bradfield is an elite defender, and by that I don’t mean one of the best college outfielders, but a guy who should be a Gold Glove candidate year in and year out if he can hit enough to be in the lineup.   

[Stotle]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Great insight, @Stotle.   Looking at the offensive numbers of the surrounding players, it’s pretty clear to me that the O’s think Bradfield is an elite defender, and by that I don’t mean one of the best college outfielders, but a guy who should be a Gold Glove candidate year in and year out if he can hit enough to be in the lineup.   

I think that is probably correct. That or they are VERY confident there are straightforward fixes to get him to a little better hard contact. But seems to me the value in the field and on the bases, they feel, is firm foundational value that justifies the risk profile in the pick. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Stotle said:

I think that is probably correct. That or they are VERY confident there are straightforward fixes to get him to a little better hard contact. But seems to me the value in the field and on the bases, they feel, is firm foundational value that justifies the risk profile in the pick. 

My problem with valuing baserunning too highly is that the player actually has to be on base for his baserunning skill to be relevant.   See Jorge Mateo.

[Number5]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My problem with valuing baserunning too highly is that the player actually has to be on base for his baserunning skill to be relevant.   See Jorge Mateo.

"You can't steal first."