2023 1st Round Pick (#17): Enrique Bradfield Jr. - CF - (Jr) Vanderbilt University

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a really interesting pick if you think about it.

This is a very very different profile than what Elias tends to go after.

It was mentioned last night that this pick is a pick that directly reflects the new rules and I think there is a lot of truth to that. New rules and new wall in OPACY make this a more premium selection in many ways.

Elias said last night that they had him ranked higher than 17. If I had to guess, he was their BPA based on him saying that. 
 

This shows growth in how Elias is evaluating and it brings a different dimension to the organization and future teams than maybe what they already had.

 

I love the fact that the Orioles seem to be adjusting instead of just doing the same thing until it fails.  I still am not sure about this pick but it is definitely an interesting profile.  Reminds me a bit of Jackie Bradley Jr. without the elite arm.  Hopefully the bat to ball skills are better.

[RZNJ]

The chances of getting an elite or all-star level player at #17 even in a deep draft aren’t good.   It’s so funny listening to how read  great every selection is and then remembering the same stuff they said about all of the players last year.  Termarr Johnson, the greatest hitting prospect since sliced bread is striking out about 30% in low A.   Druw Jones struggled before getting injured.  Jacob Berry, last years best pure college hitter looks bad so far.

And yet, O’Dowd, Reynolds, and company gush all over themselves over players picked in the 20’s.    About the only players O’Dowd didn’t wet himself over were the Oriole picks.

 

[clapdiddy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

And yet, O’Dowd, Reynolds, and company gush all over themselves over players picked in the 20’s.    About the only players O’Dowd didn’t wet himself over were the Oriole picks.

 

I have faith in Elias and his team of scouts.  That doesn't mean they won't ever be wrong, but I'll stick with his track record. 

[seak05]

Picking at 17, any prospect is going to have flags. Heck even most top 5 picks fail.

That said, this is about where he was projected to go, so doubt there are any meaningful slot savings 

(of course according to some on this board ever pick should be underslot bc they won’t turn down the money) 

[LookinUp]

31 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I love the fact that the Orioles seem to be adjusting instead of just doing the same thing until it fails.  I still am not sure about this pick but it is definitely an interesting profile.  Reminds me a bit of Jackie Bradley Jr. without the elite arm.  Hopefully the bat to ball skills are better.

I disagree that this pick is different than the Orioles profile.

1. Premium position
2. Plus defense
3. Good k/bb/swing decisions
4. Plus raw power.

I think #4 is what people are discounting. I guarantee you the O's don't think they got Juan Pierre, arm notwithstanding. That 90% percentile EV says he has raw power that's there to be tapped. It certainly looked like it in that batting cage video.

I think the O's think their player development people can turn that raw power into in-game power. I actually really like the Mullins comp in that regard, but this kid's upside is even higher with defense, stolen bases and especially OBP.

He'll have to develop, but what better org to give him that opportunity? This isn't the Sid Thrift Orioles player development staff anymore.

The more I think about this, the more I love the pick.

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I have faith in Elias and his team of scouts.  That doesn't mean they won't ever be wrong, but I'll stick with his track record. 

So will I.  I assume all picks are good.   I like the upside on all three picks.  Horvath has lightening quick hands.  I’m intrigued.

[Bemorewins]

13 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I will say, thinking of the Peak Adley Teams...there are a lot of ways this toolkit could shine as a bench weapon.

It’s hard to envision the Orioles taking a guy with their first pick to be “a bench weapon”. 

I imagine the plan is that he is the everyday starter and lead off hitter in CF.

[Bemorewins]

13 hours ago, 86this said:

 

It’s harder to judge how the speed will translate from this video given the jump in competition from college to pros in terms of the the skill of pitcher/catcher/defenders to hold runs and be more competitive with preventing steals.

But he appears to not only be extremely fast but also very quick. The jumps that he got in this quick and the ability to go from stop to full start look really elite. He looks like a really quick twitch, explosive athlete.

[btdart20]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The chances of getting an elite or all-star level player at #17 even in a deep draft aren’t good.  

Agreed.  Bradfield was a top 10 in most rankings though.  And consensus #1 CF.  Plus plus D, plus plus speed

FG has Veen has a 40+ FV.  The hit tool was and is a question.  That limitation has impacted his ISO in AA.

Zac Veen - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Bradfield is currently a 45.  His hit tool will determine his success/failure.  Can he maintain his plate discipline?  Given the O's track record of player selection/development, I think so.  Will he ever have a 45-game power?  I doubt it.  Can he have 50 doubles/10+ HR "power" for a plus OPS?  Absolutely in the realm of outcomes.  Can he be .275/.350/.400 type triple slash?  Not an unreasonable hope.

 

Enrique Bradfield Jr. Is Running Down a Dream | FanGraphs Baseball

Love this quote!  Some guys have the skills, but not that extra mental discipline! Later he talks about the 'instinct' and that goes to the decision science of how quickly athletes process data biologically.  

Bradfield puts huge effort into studying his opponents, so once he gets on base, he knows when to teleport.

“Being able to visualize and get eyes on a pitcher and catcher, knowing their tendencies and what they do is probably the most important thing as a basestealer,” he says. “I want to be able to know when to pick my spot, and then just do it.”

Bradfield studies his opponents in minute detail, going over film and scouting reports to pick up any information that can give him an edge on the bases.

“Catchers can be prone to giving things away,” he says. “You might know when they’re going to back pick because you know what their sign is. You might know when they’re probably setting up to pitch out. So it’s good to know everything you can before you get out there.”

[sportsfan8703]

What are the odds that he’s immediately top 100 in the post draft lists? Advanced college bat. I think there is a chance. 

Edited July 10, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What are the odds that he’s immediately top 100 in the post draft lists? Advanced college bat. I think there is a chance. 

I think it will depend heavily on how he does in his initial assignment.  If it appears they have made some swing alteration to generate more power, I could see him on the bottom end of some lists. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What are the odds that he’s immediately top 100 in the post draft lists? Advanced college bat. I think there is a chance. 

Possible but I doubt it. Depends on some promotions. The top 5 picks will probably all be top 50 guys..maybe even multiple top 20 guys.

Beyond that, I’m not sure any of these guys immediately go in the top 100…but by the end of the year, you will likely see several of them there.

 

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What are the odds that he’s immediately top 100 in the post draft lists? Advanced college bat. I think there is a chance. 

I find it hard to slot him in higher than #8 on our top ten prospects list at this point.   That says a lot about our system.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

It’s hard to envision the Orioles taking a guy with their first pick to be “a bench weapon”. 

I imagine the plan is that he is the everyday starter and lead off hitter in CF.

Say 2025 is the "best" year before Hays and Mullins attain free agency, and people start getting too expensive to pay.   2 years from now Hyde has Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, Hays and Fabian as roster options, and Bradfield's first 24 months in Org are close enough to Cowser-caliber performance he is about ready for a call up.

Sure the projection is 1st string player in the longer term, but what role does he begin with on that championship caliber group of Bats?      The leadoff hitters are Gunnar Adley Holliday Cowser.

[Greg Pappas]

I've learned ( slowly  ) over the years to take a deep breath and review these prospects with an open mind.  From what I had read, which was limited, I wasn't thrilled with the pick when we made it.  I was sure there were about 5-6 others I'd have taken instead, including Nimmala, Miller & Houck. However, I now believe we made a good call on Bradfield.  The key is whether he hits/gets on base enough.   If he does he'll be a dynamic weapon at the top of the order and in CF.

I hope we're going underslot at picks 53 & 63, but we'll see how this all plays out.