2023 1st Round Pick (#17): Enrique Bradfield Jr. - CF - (Jr) Vanderbilt University

[LookinUp]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I find it hard to slot him in higher than #8 on our top ten prospects list at this point.   That says a lot about our system.

I would concur with this because I see 8 as a breaking point with our prospects, so I'd slot him exactly there.

I definitely see him as having very high upside, but there's a risk profile there that we just can't have our arms around yet. 

[ChosenOne21]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I disagree that this pick is different than the Orioles profile.

1. Premium position
2. Plus defense
3. Good k/bb/swing decisions
4. Plus raw power.

I think #4 is what people are discounting. I guarantee you the O's don't think they got Juan Pierre, arm notwithstanding. That 90% percentile EV says he has raw power that's there to be tapped. It certainly looked like it in that batting cage video.

I think the O's think their player development people can turn that raw power into in-game power. I actually really like the Mullins comp in that regard, but this kid's upside is even higher with defense, stolen bases and especially OBP.

He'll have to develop, but what better org to give him that opportunity? This isn't the Sid Thrift Orioles player development staff anymore.

The more I think about this, the more I love the pick.

 

Maybe, but I will eat my hat if Bradfield ever has plus raw power.

[LookinUp]

26 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Say 2025 is the "best" year before Hays and Mullins attain free agency, and people start getting too expensive to pay.   2 years from now Hyde has Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, Hays and Fabian as roster options, and Bradfield's first 24 months in Org are close enough to Cowser-caliber performance he is about ready for a call up.

Sure the projection is 1st string player in the longer term, but what role does he begin with on that championship caliber group of Bats?      The leadoff hitters are Gunnar Adley Holliday Cowser.

He's on the roster at a minimum as a defensive replacement/pitch runner, and those guys are playing DH/1B. But the odds of this happening are probably about nil.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Maybe, but I will eat my hat if Bradfield ever has plus raw power.

Is his 90th percentile 102 EV not plus?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I would concur with this because I see 8 as a breaking point with our prospects, so I'd slot him exactly there.

I definitely see him as having very high upside, but there's a risk profile there that we just can't have our arms around yet. 

Case can be made anywhere from 8-12 imo. No higher than 8 though, as you said.

[ChosenOne21]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Is his 90th percentile 102 EV not plus?

I'm pretty sure that's his 90th percentile, not overall 90th percentile.

There are also concerns with how that translates to wood, and I also wonder if those are grounders or in the air.

Maybe, maybe, maybe he has/can get to 50 raw power, but plus seems out of the question. Maybe if they put him on a workout regimen to totally rebuild his body and even then he's just so skinny.

He's totally fine as a player if he's 40 power.

[Jim'sKid26]

I really like this pick. 

1. He comes from a very good program that has a very strong culture of excellence. Tim Corbin (and his wife) run a very tight ship at Vanderbilt. EBJ is, by all reports, a fantastic young man who carries himself with dignity and grace. He is well spoken and a consistent winner. The character is off the charts.

2. You can't teach speed. He plays a premium defensive position where speed is a vital tool. 

3. His plate discipline is stellar. He gets on base. This means that #2 is also a significant offensive weapon as well.

4. I think he has a better arm than what I've read on this board. It's certainly on par with Mullins arm.

 

At #17 I think he's a steal. 

[Bemorewins]

44 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Say 2025 is the "best" year before Hays and Mullins attain free agency, and people start getting too expensive to pay.   2 years from now Hyde has Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, Hays and Fabian as roster options, and Bradfield's first 24 months in Org are close enough to Cowser-caliber performance he is about ready for a call up.

Sure the projection is 1st string player in the longer term, but what role does he begin with on that championship caliber group of Bats?      The leadoff hitters are Gunnar Adley Holliday Cowser.

I don't see why they would keep 6 starting caliber outfielders for 3 spots. That seems like roster mismanagement. 

If our Major League team is already full staffed at that time, you trade the vet guys for prospects. If the Major League team is a piece or two away, trade from the excess to acquire what you need.

The future outfield whenever the kid is ready is probably Cowser, Bradfield, and either Kjerstad or Fabian. Maybe one is traded by then or maybe one rotates to DH?

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Is his 90th percentile 102 EV not plus?

This article might have the average 90th percentile EV.  If someone has access and can share, that would add to the conversation.  (For context, I know Yoyo Morales' 90th percentile EV was over 108 MPH, Crews was 109+ MPH, Langford was 110+ MPH).  

Enough scouts have dinged him for power, but we know EV is something (among many) that Elias/SigBot likes.  They also like the plate discipline and mental approach in various counts (like swinging at pitches they think they can do damage on like we heard in the Mayo batting breakdown).  And the defense up the middle is important to the model (as we see with Mateo still given playing time through his offensive struggles).

I'm not really sure what to make of all the noise regarding his power.  But I think the upside is definitely there.  And so is the plus defensive floor.  Juan Pierre (one of his comps) had a great career without the plate discipline Bradfield has or the power we hope Bradfield has.  If Bradfield lands at a Pierre-type player, I count that as a success. 

I was a bit surprised because some of the other hard-hitting SS and 3Bs (and an SP or two) were still on the board.  But Bradfield definitely fell to them and I think that surprised Elias (and why he probably didn't visit Bradfield).  

[btdart20]

28 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Is his 90th percentile 102 EV not plus?

 

[ChosenOne21]

54 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

This article might have the average 90th percentile EV.  If someone has access and can share, that would add to the conversation.  (For context, I know Yoyo Morales' 90th percentile EV was over 108 MPH, Crews was 109+ MPH, Langford was 110+ MPH).  

Enough scouts have dinged him for power, but we know EV is something (among many) that Elias/SigBot likes.  They also like the plate discipline and mental approach in various counts (like swinging at pitches they think they can do damage on like we heard in the Mayo batting breakdown).  And the defense up the middle is important to the model (as we see with Mateo still given playing time through his offensive struggles).

I'm not really sure what to make of all the noise regarding his power.  But I think the upside is definitely there.  And so is the plus defensive floor.  Juan Pierre (one of his comps) had a great career without the plate discipline Bradfield has or the power we hope Bradfield has.  If Bradfield lands at a Pierre-type player, I count that as a success. 

I was a bit surprised because some of the other hard-hitting SS and 3Bs (and an SP or two) were still on the board.  But Bradfield definitely fell to them and I think that surprised Elias (and why he probably didn't visit Bradfield).  

Juan Pierre was worth 24 WAR over a 13-year career. I'd take that, or at least the first six years of that.

[Malike]

He doesn't need to hit HR's. If he is truly one of the elite defensive players he just needs to get on base somehow. Take a look at Kiermaier's OPS+ over 11 years it's 98, he's been worth nearly 35 wins. He was worth 5.5 WAR slashing .246/.331/.410 with an OPS+ of 104.

Let's not kid ourselves that players are only valuable if they can hit the ball a long way. If he truly has elite defense and plate discipline, he'll be extremely valuable.

[Frobby]

Bradford speaks:

“I have no concerns about going up to the next level and not having success,” Bradfield said. “I’ve been able to adapt to every level I’ve ever been at and been able to produce, and I feel like this one’s going to be no different.”

Baseball in the Southeastern Conference is like taking a course in intense competition and the pressures surrounding it, and Bradfield passed.

The kid who boosts of being “born and raised in the 305” could handle the heat.

“I think going to the next level is always an adjustment and always a change, and there’s going to be new challenges for me, just like college was for me, and the SEC, but I definitely think the experiences of playing under the Friday night lights, there’s nothing like playing the SEC Friday night on the road. If you can play in that, you can play through pretty much anything. You can play in Omaha. It’s the same thing,” said Bradfield, who batted .311/.426/.447 with 31 doubles, 11 triples, 15 home runs, 108 RBIs and 130 stolen bases in 191 games.

“The game is fast, the game is fast at every level. High school baseball definitely isn’t anywhere near what college or professional baseball is, so it’s an adjustment. There’s always going to be a brief adjustment period. I’m prepared to go in there, make sure I do everything in my power to make sure I’m ready, but I also have experiences of struggles, failures, but I also do have the successes that are going to help me carry on and get to where I need to get."

“I definitely think it’s using my past experiences, reflecting on them and helping them take me forward.”

* * *

“I’m excited,” he said. “Watching the Orioles in the big leagues right now, they have a bunch of young guys out there who are playing really good baseball and are really talented players. They’re all like homegrown players. The fact that the organization can really develop guys gives me a level of excitement for me to go in there and know I’m going to get better every day and get to work. So, that’s probably the biggest thing for me.”

Bradfield: "I have no concerns about going up to the next level and not having success" (updated) - Blog (masnsports.com)

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Some quotes from Brad Ciolek on Bradfield:

“Ecstatic,” director of draft operations Brad Ciolek said on a video call.

“Obviously, starting with the selection of Enrique, being a type of guy who can play double-plus defense in center field, blazing speed on the basepaths, high contact. And then adding a couple ACC performers right after that, really happy with how things turned out the first night.”

* * *

“Whenever you have a player who comes to the SEC and walks more than he strikes out for three consecutive years, that’s the type of guy you want hitting at the top of your lineup,” Ciolek said. “The fact that he is very disciplined, has elite contact skills, and 80 grade speed to go with it … I know in the past we’ve taken a lot of guys who have some power production and this is a little bit of a different look, but having that guy at the top of the lineup to wreak havoc on the basepaths and play a double-plus defense grade in center field really makes you feel good as far as the entire package that you’re getting.

“He’s the type of guy that you probably hate playing against and love having him if he’s on your team.”

Ciolek on draft picks, and notes on All-Star Game - Blog (masnsports.com)

Edited July 10, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

Law:

17. Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF Vanderbilt

No. 12 on Law’s Big Board

Bradfield is an interesting departure for the Orioles, who have done exceptionally well drafting hitters in the last few years — and that might understate it. He’s a plus-plus defender and 80 runner whose swing went way backward this year. But he’s athletic and has bat speed, enough that a team that’s good at helping hitters with their swings, which the Orioles are, has plenty to work with. Getting him to stay back and use his lower half to drive the ball should allow him to hit for average and gain some extra bases from his speed, although I doubt he ever gets to more than fringe-average power. He’s also incredibly fun to watch, and the floor is high thanks to the defense.

https://theathletic.com/4677888/2023/07/10/mlb-draft-2023-analysis-first-round-law/?source=user_shared_article