Taking Stock of the Elias Drafts

[Aristotelian]

With draft season upon us and little else to do, I decided to take a few minutes to take stock and appreciate Elias’s draft history and the role of the draft in our rebuild. We now have five drafts to go on, with several players from the earliest drafts already in the big leagues. 

Elias really hit it out of the park in 2019, nailing the Adley pick and producing a second MLB #1 prospect with All Star ceiling, as well as three more potential regulars in Ortiz, Stowers, and Hernaiz (the latter turned into 3+ years of a controlled MLB starter). Even without Adley this would arguably be a solid draft but with Adley is pretty much over the top. 2020 might be just as good, with Westburg already looking like an MLB regular, Kjerstad and Mayo looking like future regulars with All Star ceilings, plus a few with role player potential. 2021 is weaker but Cowser and Norby still look like two potential regulars. 2022 is too early to tell, but Holliday is now the current MLB #1 and is on track to be a future All Star.

Add it up, I am counting 11 players that are on track to become likely MLB regulars, with perhaps 5 having ceilings as potential All Stars. Pitching is clearly not part of the strategy but you have the basis for a full roster of homegrown position players plus perhaps a few bullpen arms if things go well. 

Of the comps, Arizona 2021 is probably the one class I would trade for. Looking at KC ‘19 and Detroit ‘20, you can see the difference a good draft makes. 

Elias might as well skip the 3rd round as all our picks there so far have been minor busts with one unsigned. 

Detailed recap… Bold means on track for MLB regular or better. Italics means on track to be MLB role player or better. 

 

2019

1-1 Adley Rutschman. 7.4 WAR in 1.5 years in the majors. Made the all star team in his second year. 

2-42 Gunnar Henderson. 2.3 WAR in <1 year. Became MLB top prospect and contending for ROY. 

2-71 Kyle Stowers. -0.3 WAR. Made it to the bigs but has not had success yet. Could be trade bait for a team that doesn't have him blocked.

3-79 Zach Watson. Stuck in AA. Minor bust (relative to pick value).

4-108 Joey Ortiz. Currently MLB #64 prospect. Some think he might be better than Westburg due to defensive skills.

5-138 Darrel Hernaiz. Traded for Cole Irvin and enjoying success in Oakland's system. 

6-168 Maverick Handley. Some think could be a quality defensive backup.

Other: Prizina (AA), Fontana (AAA)

Comp: Royals 2019. Witt (1-2, 2.4 WAR), McConnell (injury bust), Marsh (-0.2 WAR), Pasquantino (11-319, 1.6 WAR)

 

2020

1-2 Kjerstad. Currently #37 MLB prospect, 1.000 OPS in AAA. Potential MLB regular with All Star ceiling. 

1-30 Westburg. 0.5 WAR in MLB after .900 OPS in AAA. Looks like MLB regular. 

2-39 Hudson Haskin. .832 OPS in AAA. Could still be a role player somewhere. 

3-74 Servideo. Minor bust. 

4-103 Coby Mayo. MLB #76. Just promoted to AAA after dominating AA. Still has All Star ceiling. 

5-133 Baumler. Minor bust (injuries).

Comp: Tigers 2020. Torkelson (-1.1 WAR), DIngler (AA), Cabrera (AA),Trei Cruz (AA). 

 

2021

1-5 Cowser. Dominated AAA, looks like MLB regular. 

2-41 Norby. Top 100 prospect in AAA. 

2-65 Trimble. Minor bust.

3-76 Rhodes. Minor bust.

4-106 Donta Williams. Minor bust. 

5-137 Tavera. Minor bust.

Other: Willems (A+) , Armbruster (AAA), Pham (AA)

Comp: Arizona 2021. Lawlar (1-6, MLB #6 prospect, .804 OPS in AA), Bliss (1.000 OPS in AA), Del Castillo (.891 OPS in AA), Steinmetz (minor bust)

 

2022: TBD

1-1 Holliday. Current MLB #1 prospect in AA after dominating A+.

1-33 Beavers (.771, A+)

2-42 Wagner (.770 A+)

2-67 Fabian (.882 A+, advanced to AA)

3-81 Maclean (stayed in college)

Other: Bright  (A+), Showalter (A)

Comp: Arizona 2022. Druw Jones (shoulder, hamstring injuries), Sims (1-34, injuries), Melendez (.945, A+)

 

[Mooreisbetter27]

Also, Watson was just released.  

[oriole]

He’s had some ridiculously good picks. Not sure how it compares to other organizations but picks like Mayo, Henderson, and Kjerstad look really good. I did not love the Kjerstad pick at the time and liked it even less when he had heart issues but in retrospect it looks brilliant considering he signed underslot, he may be partly why both Westburg and Mayo were able to be signed, who are both bonafide prospects in their own right. 

[now]

Have lately been wanting to see such a summary in one place, and you've added value with your own take. Thanks @Aristotelian!

[bpilktree]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

With draft season upon us and little else to do, I decided to take a few minutes to take stock and appreciate Elias’s draft history and the role of the draft in our rebuild. We now have five drafts to go on, with several players from the earliest drafts already in the big leagues. 

Elias really hit it out of the park in 2019, nailing the Adley pick and producing a second MLB #1 prospect with All Star ceiling, as well as three more potential regulars in Ortiz, Stowers, and Hernaiz (the latter turned into 3+ years of a controlled MLB starter). Even without Adley this would arguably be a solid draft but with Adley is pretty much over the top. 2020 might be just as good, with Westburg already looking like an MLB regular, Kjerstad and Mayo looking like future regulars with All Star ceilings, plus a few with role player potential. 2021 is weaker but Cowser and Norby still look like two potential regulars. 2022 is too early to tell, but Holliday is now the current MLB #1 and is on track to be a future All Star.

Add it up, I am counting 11 players that are on track to become likely MLB regulars, with perhaps 5 having ceilings as potential All Stars. Pitching is clearly not part of the strategy but you have the basis for a full roster of homegrown position players plus perhaps a few bullpen arms if things go well. 

Of the comps, Arizona 2021 is probably the one class I would trade for. Looking at KC ‘19 and Detroit ‘20, you can see the difference a good draft makes. 

Elias might as well skip the 3rd round as all our picks there so far have been minor busts with one unsigned. 

Detailed recap… Bold means on track for MLB regular or better. Italics means on track to be MLB role player or better. 

 

2019

1-1 Adley Rutschman. 7.4 WAR in 1.5 years in the majors. Made the all star team in his second year. 

2-42 Gunnar Henderson. 2.3 WAR in <1 year. Became MLB top prospect and contending for ROY. 

2-71 Kyle Stowers. -0.3 WAR. Made it to the bigs but has not had success yet. Could be trade bait for a team that doesn't have him blocked.

3-79 Zach Watson. Stuck in AA. Minor bust (relative to pick value).

4-108 Joey Ortiz. Currently MLB #64 prospect. Some think he might be better than Westburg due to defensive skills.

5-138 Darrel Hernaiz. Traded for Cole Irvin and enjoying success in Oakland's system. 

6-168 Maverick Handley. Some think could be a quality defensive backup.

Other: Prizina (AA), Fontana (AAA)

Comp: Royals 2019. Witt (1-2, 2.4 WAR), McConnell (injury bust), Marsh (-0.2 WAR), Pasquantino (11-319, 1.6 WAR)

 

2020

1-2 Kjerstad. Currently #37 MLB prospect, 1.000 OPS in AAA. Potential MLB regular with All Star ceiling. 

1-30 Westburg. 0.5 WAR in MLB after .900 OPS in AAA. Looks like MLB regular. 

2-39 Hudson Haskin. .832 OPS in AAA. Could still be a role player somewhere. 

3-74 Servideo. Minor bust. 

4-103 Coby Mayo. MLB #76. Just promoted to AAA after dominating AA. Still has All Star ceiling. 

5-133 Baumler. Minor bust (injuries).

Comp: Tigers 2020. Torkelson (-1.1 WAR), DIngler (AA), Cabrera (AA),Trei Cruz (AA). 

 

2021

1-5 Cowser. Dominated AAA, looks like MLB regular. 

2-41 Norby. Top 100 prospect in AAA. 

2-65 Trimble. Minor bust.

3-76 Rhodes. Minor bust.

4-106 Donta Williams. Minor bust. 

5-137 Tavera. Minor bust.

Other: Willems (A+) , Armbruster (AAA), Pham (AA)

Comp: Arizona 2021. Lawlar (1-6, MLB #6 prospect, .804 OPS in AA), Bliss (1.000 OPS in AA), Del Castillo (.891 OPS in AA), Steinmetz (minor bust)

 

2022: TBD

1-1 Holliday. Current MLB #1 prospect in AA after dominating A+.

1-33 Beavers (.771, A+)

2-42 Wagner (.770 A+)

2-67 Fabian (.882 A+, advanced to AA)

3-81 Maclean (stayed in college)

Other: Bright  (A+), Showalter (A)

Comp: Arizona 2022. Druw Jones (shoulder, hamstring injuries), Sims (1-34, injuries), Melendez (.945, A+)

 

The 2021 draft missed in the 3-6 rounds but a couple later round pitchers are moving their way up the system pretty well in Ambruester and Pham that are still somewhat overlooked on here.   We will see if they can continue to get better and keep the results they have had in the lower levels.   The very least they look like possible middle relief arms to join the Norfolk shuttle in the future.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

The 2021 draft missed in the 3-6 rounds but a couple later round pitchers are moving their way up the system pretty well in Ambruester and Pham that are still somewhat overlooked on here.   We will see if they can continue to get better and keep the results they have had in the lower levels.   The very least they look like possible middle relief arms to join the Norfolk shuttle in the future.  

Yes, I noted them as still viable. And Willems could really be something. For any other organization Cowser and Norby plus a couple bullpen or backend starters would be a very nice draft. 2021 looks meh only relative the two A+ level drafts before. 2022 could look a lot better a year from now if any of the non-Holliday picks have a breakout year.

[25 Nuggets]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, I noted them as still viable. And Willems could really be something. For any other organization Cowser and Norby plus a couple bullpen or backend starters would be a very nice draft. 2021 looks meh only relative the two A+ level drafts before. 2022 could look a lot better a year from now if any of the non-Holliday picks have a breakout year.

Having a nutty good draft three out of four years while nailing your top two picks in the fourth... well, that's how you get the top farm system in the majors.  It's just that all the best picks are position players.  Like, every single one of the top... twelve players from those drafts are position players. 

Maybe the 2023 draft changes that a bit with half the picks being right-handed pitchers, but we'll see.

[sportsfan8703]

Elias did a fine job stocking the system with position players, and building position player depth, all while grabbing high upside guys in Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and Cowser, through the draft. 

So far in this draft it looks like we grabbed our high upside player with our first pick. However, we’re no longer just building position player depth. Now we’re doing that on the pitching side of things. When we did draft bats, they were all “tooled up”, with potential to be tapped into with our development. 

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias did a fine job stocking the system with position players, and building position player depth, all while grabbing high upside guys in Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and Cowser, through the draft. 

So far in this draft it looks like we grabbed our high upside player with our first pick. However, we’re no longer just building position player depth. Now we’re doing that on the pitching side of things. When we did draft bats, they were all “tooled up”, with potential to be tapped into with our development. 

Will be interesting to see how we do this year without the advantage of a top five pick. In '19 and '20 we had some quality picks aside from our #1. '21 would have been pretty weak without Cowser, and '22 is TBD but Holliday is the only one who clearly looks like a likely future MLB regular.

[ChuckS]

That 19 draft will go down in the history books for us.  

20 wasn't bad either considering there was only five rounds, and we were able to draft three guys who ended up being top 100 prospects. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by ChuckS

[gretzkyscores]

great summary - thank you

[RVAOsFan]

@Aristotelian Great post, thank you for putting the work in on this one for us.  There is a lot of reason to have trust in who our FO decides to draft.

Not that my opinion really matters but I think this would be a great thread to pin in the Draft section to update as years go by.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Will be interesting to see how we do this year without the advantage of a top five pick. In '19 and '20 we had some quality picks aside from our #1. '21 would have been pretty weak without Cowser, and '22 is TBD but Holliday is the only one who clearly looks like a likely future MLB regular.

Well Bradfield was expected to go higher than 17 by some “experts”. This was a loaded draft. Bradfield was either ranked around the same, or higher, than what Cowser and Kjerstad were ranked when we drafted them. 

Next year we will be picking later, but we will also have a comp pick A, which is about 30 spots higher than our comp pick B. 

We could also earn a draft pick at the end of round 1 if Gunnar wins ROY. So next years draft is setting up quite nicely. Holliday could follow the same formula as Gunnar, and we could earn an extra 1st rd pick the following year. Strategy of the ROY, can just help this draft train rolling. 

[glenn__davis]

I think the 2021 draft is a pretty interesting one, particularly Trimble and Rhodes.

Both, and Trimble in particular, have really struggled to stay on the field.  Trimble I believe had the TJ surgery after the 2021 season.  As of now he hasn't played since April 29th.  Not sure what his current injury is.  He hasn't really performed well on the field at all but again, how much of that is due to health.  At this moment he's not really a prospect at all which would be a pretty big miss for a college bat drafted where he was.

Rhodes similarly has had his share of injuries, but he hasn't been a total zero while playing.  Tony still has him (barely) in his Top 30 power rankings.  

Those were 2 kind of toolsy-type guys that would a test of the Orioles development team.  So far neither has panned out to much but they both need to stay on the field for a bit.