Someone has to say it...

[Gurgi]

Lot of angst over bringing up rookies.  Anyone who was paying attention to the roster in the off season should of realized this year was going to be a big one for bringing up rookies.  After all we had tons of top 100 prospects in AAA already.  These guys were going to come up.  Frankly more of them probably will come up this year and next.   Get used to the kids struggling at first.  

But it is still extremely exciting to have them here.   They are going to be a machine in two years.   

[deward]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I was t attempting to accuse you of dishonesty, just making the point that we should be fair/objective/honest in our assessments.

I’m at error here though, it appears that I read something into your post that you didn’t intend.

I assume most people here are being honest in their assessments, even if I think those assessments may be wrong at times.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, deward said:

I assume most people here are being honest in their assessments, even if I think those assessments may be wrong at times.

I think this is partly true. But there are some obviously biased assessments based upon poster’s perceived personal desires/preferences.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

As others have said, it’s 36 PA so not at all close enough to draw conclusions on, but still:

.136 BABIP

19.4 BB%

13.9 K%

.260 xBA

.332 xSLG

.371 xwOBA

40.9% Hard Hit %

84.1% Zone Contact %

18.1% Chase %

That’s a very good to elite plate discipline profile and he’s making a lot of contact. We wouldn’t even have this thread right now if more of the grounders found holes and his BA matched his .260 xBA. 

He is only hitting the ball hard on the ground right now. He needs to start hitting more balls hard in the air. But that’s a natural part of the progression to the major league level, and he’s not a small slap hitter where we need to worry about him ultimately having enough power. There is some legitimate concern that a true power stroke won’t ever come for him at the MLB level given his very high MiL line drive % and low FB%, but even with the zero power right now, he’s walking so much, making enough contact and hitting the ball hard enough on the ground to run a great xwOBA. He’s just been very unlucky. 

I do think his defense has been poor, but it’s been 9 games. The scouting reports are all that he is at a minimum a plus corner OF even if he can’t handle CF. We don’t need him to stick in CF on this team long term, or even right now with Hicks around.

Great, rational post.  Lots of similarities to Gunnar's ML and MiLB progress in his profile (even if his defensive floor is lower than Gunnar's).  Swinging at pitches that you can hit hard tends to playout well in the long-run.  It'll happen.

Short-term:  We need Ced to fully heal up.  

"2023 playoff push"-term:  We're in the 85-90% percentile driver's seat for the playoffs.  I anticipate the leash to be along the Westburg lines to see if Cowser can adjust to be a contributor for a deeper run.  This is a great opportunity for Cowser's introduction to the ML.

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

How can these reasonably/accurately project that though? All they can do is use comps, but even with that all players are unique individuals.

They do the best they can and they will be wrong sometimes - that is the risk.  

I look at a team like the Braves who have been very aggressive playing rookies with no fear of accepting the acclimation period the past few years and it's worked out brilliantly for them.  But I'm sure there are examples of orgs who misjudged and ended up worse off having played the young guys.    

[btdart20]

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

How can these reasonably/accurately project that though? All they can do is use comps, but even with that all players are unique individuals.

Biometrics, swing decisions, analytics...  But yes, there's the "life" element to it making it something less than an exact science.  Once the living decisions are adjusted to game speed/spin/talent, then stats come into play a bit more.  That's part of the focus on swing decision training and report cards.  That's why it's really cool to see videos like Mayo's from a few weeks ago where he recalled the situation and what he's looking for.  

When Elias used Gunnar as the poster boy last year (even before his debut), he was talking about/hyping up the swing decision process as much as anything else.  Cowser is talented but he's also a product of the same type of focus.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Let’s be honest about something, he is not even in the same class as Mullins as a defensive player. It has nothing to do with “how it looks”. He’s simply not that caliber of athlete and does not have the movement skills/range/speed/tracking ability that Mullins has.

The only thing he does better than Mullins as an outfield is throw, which IMO is not a requisite skill to have in order to be a good CF. Kenny Lofton never threw the ball well at all, but there were not many who could go get it like him when he was in his prime.

And this is no knock on Cowser or meant to be an anti-Cowser post. But honesty is important in making an assessment IMO.

You can make this statement about (probably) 778 current major league players at the moment. There is MAYBE two other guys in all of baseball that run them down as well as Ced and one of them is a permanent DH in Minnesota because he can't stay healthy. 

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

You can make this statement about (probably) 778 current major league players at the moment. There is MAYBE two other guys in all of baseball that run them down as well as Ced and one of them is a permanent DH in Minnesota because he can't stay healthy. 

Exactly! We HOPE that Bradfield Jr can be one of those guys one day. But they are extremely rare.

[Tony-OH]

Cowser has always needed an adjustment time to new levels and this is the biggest jump of all. He's going to be fine.

The one thing I've seen is he's proven my scouting eye right by looking at his jump numbers defensively so far (-2 feet/pec vs avg). Now it takes some guys some adjustment time due to seeing balls through the upper decks of major league stadiums, so he very well could get better, but he's not an everyday defensive center fielder. 

I mean, with 61% sprint speed he's fine overall despite the below average jump numbers, but you typically want an elite runner in CF. I do however think he'll make a very good left-fielder in Camden Yards big LF if they give him the reps out there. 

With just six starts this yea and 28 in his minor league career in LF, this is an area where I don't agree with the Orioles development defensively. If you know he's not going to be your everyday CF, why is he getting most of his reps there in the minors? Why is not playing more LF if you think he can handle Camden Yards LF? I've seen this over and over with players like Stowers (played him to LF with little experience), Westburg (mainly played SS and 3B and was getting a lot of reps at 2B in majors) and now Cowser being mainly asked to play positions that were not there main positions in the minors. 

I understand wanting versatility, but at some point the organization needs to have a plan for where a guy will mainly play at the major league level and give him the reps there. 

[tntoriole]

11 hours ago, Malike said:

Gunnar showed flashes immediately last year when he was called up. Everyone saw it. There is a difference.

Exactly…. Cowser is not Gunnar or Adley .. or Cal lol .. I could just as easily say he is like “fill in the blank of numerous AAA players who were highly touted but not successful in big leagues” 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I disagree. Gunnar changed his approach beginning in late May. He decided to start getting more aggressive earlier in the count. His walk numbers have gone down since June but the other critical offensive stats have gone up.

There is a fine line between being patient and passive. Even the great Juan Soto has struggled with this at times.

What got him here is important to remember, but it’s also important for him to figure what will work at this level. Not everything that he did prior to this will work/be effective for him. He will have to make tweaks/adjustments.

I am not down on the young man by any means, but hopeful fans/posters and especially the org is patient while he figures things out. I don’t think it will serve him well however if he is told or tells him, “just keep doing what you’ve been doing”.

Late May was after his “initial approach”.  
 

Attacking pitches early in the count was what he did to counter the league trying to sneak strike 1 on him.

His approach is fine, he should not change.  That wouldn’t be foolish. 

[oriolediehard]

IMO, I think Hyde should bat Cowser 9th to take some pressure off him.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Late May was after his “initial approach”.  
 

Attacking pitches early in the count was what he did to counter the league trying to sneak strike 1 on him.

His approach is fine, he should not change.  That wouldn’t be foolish. 

I’m in complete agreement with the first and second statements and have said such. 

Statement 2 and 3 appear to have incongruence to me. Either he kept doing what he was doing and got different results somehow or he changed what was working initially and thus started to get different results? 

[Bemorewins]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Cowser has always needed an adjustment time to new levels and this is the biggest jump of all. He's going to be fine.

The one thing I've seen is he's proven my scouting eye right by looking at his jump numbers defensively so far (-2 feet/pec vs avg). Now it takes some guys some adjustment time due to seeing balls through the upper decks of major league stadiums, so he very well could get better, but he's not an everyday defensive center fielder. 

I mean, with 61% sprint speed he's fine overall despite the below average jump numbers, but you typically want an elite runner in CF. I do however think he'll make a very good left-fielder in Camden Yards big LF if they give him the reps out there. 

With just six starts this yea and 28 in his minor league career in LF, this is an area where I don't agree with the Orioles development defensively. If you know he's not going to be your everyday CF, why is he getting most of his reps there in the minors? Why is not playing more LF if you think he can handle Camden Yards LF? I've seen this over and over with players like Stowers (played him to LF with little experience), Westburg (mainly played SS and 3B and was getting a lot of reps at 2B in majors) and now Cowser being mainly asked to play positions that were not there main positions in the minors. 

I understand wanting versatility, but at some point the organization needs to have a plan for where a guy will mainly play at the major league level and give him the reps there. 

It’s very hard to argue with the logic of this. As an org we seem to be dogmatic about doing some things/trends in the game, even if it is not serving us well.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m in complete agreement with the first and second statements and have said such. 

Statement 2 and 3 appear to have incongruence to me. Either he kept doing what he was doing and got different results somehow or he changed what was working initially and thus started to get different results? 

Sorry typo - Should have read “changed what wasn’t working…”