Someone has to say it...

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

As others have said, it’s 36 PA so not at all close enough to draw conclusions on, but still:

.136 BABIP

19.4 BB%

13.9 K%

.260 xBA

.332 xSLG

.371 xwOBA

40.9% Hard Hit %

84.1% Zone Contact %

18.1% Chase %

That’s a very good to elite plate discipline profile and he’s making a lot of contact. We wouldn’t even have this thread right now if more of the grounders found holes and his BA matched his .260 xBA. 

He is only hitting the ball hard on the ground right now. He needs to start hitting more balls hard in the air. But that’s a natural part of the progression to the major league level, and he’s not a small slap hitter where we need to worry about him ultimately having enough power. There is some legitimate concern that a true power stroke won’t ever come for him at the MLB level given his very high MiL line drive % and low FB%, but even with the zero power right now, he’s walking so much, making enough contact and hitting the ball hard enough on the ground to run a great xwOBA. He’s just been very unlucky. 

I do think his defense has been poor, but it’s been 9 games. The scouting reports are all that he is at a minimum a plus corner OF even if he can’t handle CF. We don’t need him to stick in CF on this team long term, or even right now with Hicks around.

I am not one of those posters who has a microwave mentality when it comes to prospects. I expect all of them to initially struggle (because most do) and if not I am pleasantly surprised.

However, I don’t see Cowser initial struggles (as he adjusts to big league pitching) as having to do with any sort of serious “bad luck”. “Bad luck” to me is when you are hitting the ball hard and fielders are making nice plays to get outs that could be hits. I haven’t see that much with him.

O’Hearn was “unlucky” for example IMO when Taylor made that sliding catch in the 6th. Cowser is not hitting the ball with authority very often. He is not driving the ball and has produced a lot of weak contact. Even the base knock that he got against NY was pretty weak contact.

What I see (from my non-trained) fan’s eye, is a player who is too passive at the plate (like Henderson was). A player who has been told/or told himself “not too do too much” and instead is not doing enough: He has to start attacking more pitches in the zone early in counts and stop getting so many 2 strike counts where then he becomes on the defensive as the pitcher becomes the aggressor/has the upper hand.

How many times since June have we seen Gunnar attack early in the count and even ambush some pitches in 0-0 counts. This is what Cowser will need to figure out (and I believe that he will given time). 

But with all of that said, right now it’s ugly to watch.

[ScGO's]

36 minutes ago, deward said:

Cowser has absolutely nothing to prove in the minors. He doesn't need more seasoning, he needs to work out his timing against MLB pitching. It'll come.

Around 85 total games at AAA. Could have identified something in these couple weeks that he can go back and work on in order to have more success at MLB level

[deward]

9 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Maybe wishful thinking but it could also just be an issue of needing some time to acclimate defensively as well.  Not uncommon for a young OF coming up to sometimes struggle a bit getting used to tracking the ball in venues with a third deck.  

This is from Tony's evaluation at the end of last season:

Defensively Cowser runs well on the go, but at times doesn’t get good reads. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds already (maybe more weight), it’s doubtful he will be able to play anything more than a merely adequate centerfield suggesting a move to corner outfield would be best. With Camden Yards’ spacious left field, left field might be a better fit even though he has enough arm to play RF.

I do wonder, if reads are something of weak spot already, if Cowser is maybe getting in his own head a bit with the pressure of his first few games. We'll see if he settles down with it. I think part of the problem with the naysayers here is that he's never going to look as good as Mullins. "Just ok" is likely his ceiling for CF defense. 

 

[deward]

13 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Around 85 total games at AAA. Could have identified something in these couple weeks that he can go back and work on in order to have more success at MLB level

I'm not sure what the point of having him go down and continue to beat up on AAA pitching would be. Whatever he needs to work on, he needs to work on it here. You can't simulate this level anywhere else.

[Moose Milligan]

For the amount of smart, well informed fans on here, there are a lot of terrible, awful hot takes.  

I think expecting rookies to come up and produce right away is one of the more irrational ones.  It's often combined with, "I know it's a really small sample size, but..."

Yeah, no **** if you know it's a really small sample size, you're just admitting that what you're about to say is probably ridiculous.

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

He's been lunging at some offspeed pitches down in the count and making weak contact. 

He, Gunnar and Rustchman all have one thing in common.... they don't chase a whole lot of BS. And that alone is an excellent sign for a young player. 

And I also think that hurts them at first at this level. They aren’t overly aggressive and wait for their pitch.

[86this]

 

[eddie83]

I want to see him stay up here. Way too short. It’s just right now we may need him down for roster reasons. 

[osfan83]

Being only 1 game out of first, post all star break, we are in a legit pennant race. We must play those who are producing regardless of being a rookie or a vet. If Matteo heats up, play him and so on. I understand the thinking of building for 2024....but there is no guarantee we will be this good next July. We might be 5 over struggling to stay in the WC race, who knows? Right now we have a real shot that the division, play those who are producing. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, deward said:

This is from Tony's evaluation at the end of last season:

Defensively Cowser runs well on the go, but at times doesn’t get good reads. At 6-foot-3 and 195 pounds already (maybe more weight), it’s doubtful he will be able to play anything more than a merely adequate centerfield suggesting a move to corner outfield would be best. With Camden Yards’ spacious left field, left field might be a better fit even though he has enough arm to play RF.

I do wonder, if reads are something of weak spot already, if Cowser is maybe getting in his own head a bit with the pressure of his first few games. We'll see if he settles down with it. I think part of the problem with the naysayers here is that he's never going to look as good as Mullins. "Just ok" is likely his ceiling for CF defense. 

 

Let’s be honest about something, he is not even in the same class as Mullins as a defensive player. It has nothing to do with “how it looks”. He’s simply not that caliber of athlete and does not have the movement skills/range/speed/tracking ability that Mullins has.

The only thing he does better than Mullins as an outfield is throw, which IMO is not a requisite skill to have in order to be a good CF. Kenny Lofton never threw the ball well at all, but there were not many who could go get it like him when he was in his prime.

And this is no knock on Cowser or meant to be an anti-Cowser post. But honesty is important in making an assessment IMO.

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

Being only 1 game out of first, post all star break, we are in a legit pennant race. We must play those who are producing regardless of being a rookie or a vet. If Matteo heats up, play him and so on. I understand the thinking of building for 2024....but there is no guarantee we will be this good next July. We might be 5 over struggling to stay in the WC race, who knows? Right now we have a real shot that the division, play those who are producing. 

You are correct in that the future is unknowable. However, we probably can reasonable project that our team will be as good maybe even better next year. Adley and Gunnar will be more experienced players and likely better. Hays/Mullins/Santander will all be in their primes. Grayson should be better having more experience. And the same could be said for other first year players.

Plus we may be adding Kjerstad and Mayo to the team along with Holliday. At least 2/3 have star level potential talent IMO.

Maybe some of our pitchers like Wells and Bradish or Cano/Bautista don’t perform at the same level. 

But all signs point to an upward arrow.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, 86this said:

 

What a perfect scene for this situation. Well done.

[deward]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Let’s be honest about something, he is not even in the same class as Mullins as a defensive player. It has nothing to do with “how it looks”. He’s simply not that caliber of athlete and does not have the movement skills/range/speed/tracking ability that Mullins has.

The only thing he does better than Mullins as an outfield is throw, which IMO is not a requisite skill to have in order to be a good CF. Kenny Lofton never threw the ball well at all, but there were not many who could go get it like him when he was in his prime.

And this is no knock on Cowser or meant to be an anti-Cowser post. But honesty is important in making an assessment IMO.

I was attempting to say that he isn't as good as Mullins, so he's not going to look as good out there. I didn't say anything to argue that he's in the same class as Mullins, my entire point was that he isn't, so the difference will be very noticeable. Where was the dishonesty? 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, johnrambo said:

Cowser was never projected to be a plus defender. Scouts never considered him a CF type of a guy at any point. And they were never high on his power either. So you're basically banking on entirely on his hit tool. Cowser's value will be his bat to contact skills. If this kid doesn't start hitting then he's an even bigger liability than Mateo. At least Mateo can play a MLB SS. Cowser has to hit or he's bust.

Fangraphs disagrees with that assessment.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/colton-cowser/29591/stats?position=OF

55 Speed

55 Defense

50 Raw Power

50 Game Power 

45 Hit

[Fiver6565]

I wonder how much the trial ABS system in AAA effects these guys when they come up. Down there they are rewarded for taking pitches just outside the zone because the system (theoretically) calls this pitches balls. In the majors we know that’s not the case, far too often.  Anecdotally it seems like there’s been a lot of called third strikes against all these guys as they’ve acclimated themselves. 
 

(disclosure - not sure if the ABS system was in place last year. If not then this is mainly just in re Cowser and Westburg).