AL Playoff Race - 9 weeks left- now 1 week

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

My homie Pat Corbin is beating the Red Sox 6-1 thru 51/3

Thru 6

Boston keeps hanging around but not making a push either. Have a real tough stretch upcoming. 
 

TOR after playing BAL has 15 straight games vs losing teams. Then play TB 6 of last 9 games of season. SEA has a tough last 10 games which include 7 vs TEX. After playing @HOU this weekend they have 12 straight vs losing teams. SEA will win the tiebreaker over TOR even though they split the season series 3-3. SEA is 19-11 vs West and TOR is 11-23. TOR did win season series vs HOU. TOR is 3-4 vs TB with those 7 games left. 

[Just Regular]

Mariners recovered well taking 3 of 4 in Kansas City at start of a long road trip.

Big series for them in Houston this weekend - they could catch them with a road sweep.     

3rd place West and 3rd place East might end up a real race for the last wildcard.

If CLE falls hopelessly behind MIN, its possible they could be in offseason mode by the time we see them in the second to last week.

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Mariners recovered well taking 3 of 4 in Kansas City at start of a long road trip.

Big series for them in Houston this weekend - they could catch them with a road sweep.     

3rd place West and 3rd place East might end up a real race for the last wildcard.

If CLE falls hopelessly behind MIN, its possible they could be in offseason mode by the time we see them in the second to last week.

I think in AL we have 4 races left. 
-BAL hold off TB?

-TEX hold off HOU/SEA?

-MINN hold off CLE? 

-TOR - SEA as of now battling for one spot  

Consolation prize for top 2 division runner ups is WC spot. I don’t see any evidence CLE will catch MINN, though MINN has not buried them yet. I think TOR is underachieving. That said whoever winds up being the 6 seed will be favorites over the 3 seed. TOR and SEA have a PHI/SD 2022 like feel to them. Both have upside and SP to do damage.  

[Baltimorecuse]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I think in AL we have 4 races left. 
-BAL hold off TB?

-TEX hold off HOU/SEA?

-MINN hold off CLE? 

-TOR - SEA as of now battling for one spot  

Consolation prize for top 2 division runner ups is WC spot. I don’t see any evidence CLE will catch MINN, though MINN has not buried them yet. I think TOR is underachieving. That said whoever winds up being the 6 seed will be favorites over the 3 seed. TOR and SEA have a PHI/SD 2022 like feel to them. Both have upside and SP to do damage.  

Historically, some real weird stuff has happened in the last 6 weeks.  I don't take anything for granted.  Remember the curse of the Great Andino?  I loved that.  

[eddie83]

18 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Historically, some real weird stuff has happened in the last 6 weeks.  I don't take anything for granted.  Remember the curse of the Great Andino?  I loved that.  

Of course. 
 

Thing is it would take a collapse for that to happen and also keep in mind only 4 playoff teams then and not 6 like now. 

[Baltimorecuse]

47 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Of course. 
 

Thing is it would take a collapse for that to happen and also keep in mind only 4 playoff teams then and not 6 like now. 

The reason I said "weird" is because it is so uncommon.  Your analysis was excellent.  

[eddie83]

9 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

The reason I said "weird" is because it is so uncommon.  Your analysis was excellent.  

It is uncommon. 95 Mariners catching the Angels is one I remember. That 2011 Boston team was a train wreck at the end. 

Bichette is back on a rehab assignment for the Jays at AAA. He could be huge for TOR down the stretch. 

[Baltimorecuse]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

It is uncommon. 95 Mariners catching the Angels is one I remember. That 2011 Boston team was a train wreck at the end. 

Bichette is back on a rehab assignment for the Jays at AAA. He could be huge for TOR down the stretch. 

Bichette is a big piece of their offense.  

[eddie83]

6 WEEKS left

Lot of stuff happened this weekend. 

-SEA swept HOU in HOU

-BOS swept NYY

-MINN opening up ALC lead 

-MIL swept TEX

 

BAL is now 5 games up on TEX for overall 1 seed. BAL has 4 game lead in loss column over TB plus current tiebreaker. SEA only 3 back of TEX. 
 

BOS has tiebreaker over TOR. SEA will have tiebreak over HOU,  TOR and more than likely BOS. I enjoy seeing NYY in the basement too much to take them out.

AL playoff race 

AL East                        GB          GL 

BAL        77-47                         38
TB          75-51             3.0       36


TOR       69-56            8.5        37


BOS       66-58           11.0        38


NYY       60-64           17.0        38

AL Central 
MINN      65-60                         37
CLE         59-66           6.0         37

AL West
TEX         72-52                          38
HOU        70-55             2.5       37
SEA         69-55             3.0       38

AL WC
TB             75-51          +5.0
HOU         70-55           +3.0

SEA           69-55            - - - 
——————
TOR          69-56          0.5 
BOS          66-58          3.0

SCHEDULES

BAL 
    
TOR (3)    COL (3)
CWS (3)    @ARZ (3)                 5
@LAA (3)    @BOS (3)
STL (3)    TB (4)
@HOU (3)    @CLE (4)
WAS (2)    BOS (4)

TB
  
 COL (3)    NYY(3)
@MIA (2)    @ CLE (3)               5
BOS (3)    SEA (4)
@MIN (3)    @BAL (4)
LAA (3)    TOR (3)
BOS (2)    @TOR (3)
    

TOR
    
 @BAL (3)     CLE (3)
WAS (3)     @COL (3)                5
@OAK (3)     KC (3)
TEX (4)     BOS (3)
@NYY (3)    @TB (3)
NYY (3)    TB (3)

BOS
    
 @HOU (4)    LAD (3)
HOU (3)    @KC (3)                  5
@TB (3)    BAL (3)
NYY (4)     @TOR (3)
@TEX (3)    CWS (3)
TB (2)    @BAL (4)

NYY
    
WAS (3)    @TB (3)
@DET (4)    @HOU (3)              5
DET (3)    MIL (3)
@BOS (4)    @PIT (3)
TOR (3)    ARZ (3)
@TOR (3)    @KC (3)

MIN
    
 @MIL (2)    TEX (4)
CLE (3)     @TEX (3)               5
@CLE (3)     NYM (3)
TB (3)    @CWS (4)
@CIN (3)    LAA (3)
OAK (3)    @COL (3)

 

CLE
    
 LAD (3)    @TOR (3)
MIN (3)    TB (3)                       5
MIN(3)    @LAA (4)
@SF (3)    TEX (3)
@KC (3)    BAL (4)
CIN (2)    @DET (3) 

TEX
    
 @ARZ (2)    @MINN (4)
@NYM (3)    MIN (3)                   5
HOU (3)    OAK (3)
@TOR (4)    @CLE (3)
BOS (3)    SEA (3)
@LAA (3)    @ SEA (4) 

HOU
    
 BOS (4)    @DET (3)
@BOS (3)    NYY (3)                  5
@TEX (3)    SD (3)
OAK (3)    @KC (3)
BAL (3)     KC (3)
@SEA (3)    @ARZ (3)

LAA
    
CIN (3)    @NYM (3)
@PHI (3)    @OAK (3)                5
BAL (3)    CLE (4)
@SEA (3)    DET (3)
@TB (3)    @MIN(3)
TEX (3)    OAK (3)

SEA
    
@CWS (3)    KC (3)
OAK (3)    @NYM (3)               5
@CIN (3)    @TB (4)
LAA (3)    LAD (3)
@OAK (3)    @TEX (3)
HOU (3)    TEX (4)
 

Edited August 20, 2023 by eddie83

[dystopia]

O's are now third in the AL in runs scored.

[eddie83]

Now 5.5 weeks left. BAL loses one game from lead but still has 3 game lead in loss column. SEA charging hard in ALW. TEX continues to struggle. BOS/HOU split 4 game series. BAL basically playing for either 1/4 seed.  TOR has soft spot in schedule. Needs to pick it up. BAL magic number for playoff berth is 25.  

For conversation sake assuming BAL wins one more game Vs TB  for division 

BAL goes         TB needs 

           18-17        20-13

           19-16       21-12

           20-15       22-11              
 

AL playoff race 

AL East                        GB           GL 

BAL        79-48                          35
TB          78-51           2.0          33


TOR       70-58            9.5          34


BOS       68-60          11.0           34


NYY       61-66           18.0         35

AL Central 
MINN      66-62                         34
CLE         60-68          6.0          34

AL West
TEX         72-55                          35
SEA        71-56           1.0          35
HOU       72-57           1.0           33

AL WC
TB             78-51                   +6.0
SEA          71-56             

HOU          72-57                 - - - 
——————
TOR          70-58            1.5
BOS          68-60            3.5

SCHEDULES

BAL 
    COL (3)
CWS (3)    @ARZ (3)                 5
@LAA (3)    @BOS (3)
STL (3)    TB (4)
@HOU (3)    @CLE (4)
WAS (2)    BOS (4)

TB
   NYY(3)
@MIA (2)    @ CLE (3)               5
BOS (3)    SEA (4)
@MIN (3)    @BAL (4)
LAA (3)    TOR (3)
BOS (2)    @TOR (3)
    

TOR
      CLE (3)
WAS (3)     @COL (3)                5
@OAK (3)     KC (3)
TEX (4)     BOS (3)
@NYY (3)    @TB (3)
NYY (3)    TB (3)

BOS
       LAD (3)
HOU (3)    @KC (3)                  5
@TB (3)    BAL (3)
NYY (4)     @TOR (3)
@TEX (3)    CWS (3)
TB (2)    @BAL (4)

NYY
    @TB (3)
@DET (4)    @HOU (3)              5
DET (3)    MIL (3)
@BOS (4)    @PIT (3)
TOR (3)    ARZ (3)
@TOR (3)    @KC (3)

MIN
    TEX (4) - 3 games left 
CLE (3)     @TEX (3)               5
@CLE (3)     NYM (3)
TB (3)    @CWS (4)
@CIN (3)    LAA (3)
OAK (3)    @COL (3)

CLE
   @TOR (3)
MIN (3)    TB (3)                       5
MIN(3)    @LAA (4)
@SF (3)    TEX (3)
@KC (3)    BAL (4)
CIN (2)    @DET (3) 

TEX
    @MINN (4)- 3 games left 
@NYM (3)    MIN (3)                   5
HOU (3)    OAK (3)
@TOR (4)    @CLE (3)
BOS (3)    SEA (3)
@LAA (3)    @ SEA (4) 

HOU
    @DET (3)
@BOS (3)    NYY (3)                  5
@TEX (3)    SD (3)
OAK (3)    @KC (3)
BAL (3)     KC (3)
@SEA (3)    @ARZ (3)

LAA
     @NYM (3)
@PHI (3)    @OAK (3)                5
BAL (3)    CLE (4)
@SEA (3)    DET (3)
@TB (3)    @MIN(3)
TEX (3)    OAK (3)

SEA
    KC (3)
OAK (3)    @NYM (3)               5
@CIN (3)    @TB (4)
LAA (3)    LAD (3)
@OAK (3)    @TEX (3)
HOU (3)    TEX (4)
 

[fernandodfcosta]

8 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Now 5.5 weeks left. BAL loses one game from lead but still has 3 game lead in loss column. SEA charging hard in ALW. TEX continues to struggle. BOS/HOU split 4 game series. BAL basically playing for either 1/4 seed.  TOR has soft spot in schedule. Needs to pick it up. BAL magic number for playoff berth is 25.  

For conversation sake assuming BAL wins one more game Vs TB  for division 

BAL goes         TB needs 

           18-17        20-13

           19-16       21-12

           20-15       22-11              
 

AL playoff race 

AL East                        GB           GL 

BAL        79-48                          35
TB          78-51           2.0          33


TOR       70-58            9.5          34


BOS       68-60          11.0           34


NYY       61-66           18.0         35

AL Central 
MINN      66-62                         34
CLE         60-68          6.0          34

AL West
TEX         72-55                          35
SEA        71-56           1.0          35
HOU       72-57           1.0           33

AL WC
TB             78-51                   +6.0
SEA          71-56             

HOU          72-57                 - - - 
——————
TOR          70-58            1.5
BOS          68-60            3.5

SCHEDULES

BAL 
    COL (3)
CWS (3)    @ARZ (3)                 5
@LAA (3)    @BOS (3)
STL (3)    TB (4)
@HOU (3)    @CLE (4)
WAS (2)    BOS (4)

TB
   NYY(3)
@MIA (2)    @ CLE (3)               5
BOS (3)    SEA (4)
@MIN (3)    @BAL (4)
LAA (3)    TOR (3)
BOS (2)    @TOR (3)
    

TOR
      CLE (3)
WAS (3)     @COL (3)                5
@OAK (3)     KC (3)
TEX (4)     BOS (3)
@NYY (3)    @TB (3)
NYY (3)    TB (3)

BOS
       LAD (3)
HOU (3)    @KC (3)                  5
@TB (3)    BAL (3)
NYY (4)     @TOR (3)
@TEX (3)    CWS (3)
TB (2)    @BAL (4)

NYY
    @TB (3)
@DET (4)    @HOU (3)              5
DET (3)    MIL (3)
@BOS (4)    @PIT (3)
TOR (3)    ARZ (3)
@TOR (3)    @KC (3)

MIN
    TEX (4) - 3 games left 
CLE (3)     @TEX (3)               5
@CLE (3)     NYM (3)
TB (3)    @CWS (4)
@CIN (3)    LAA (3)
OAK (3)    @COL (3)

CLE
   @TOR (3)
MIN (3)    TB (3)                       5
MIN(3)    @LAA (4)
@SF (3)    TEX (3)
@KC (3)    BAL (4)
CIN (2)    @DET (3) 

TEX
    @MINN (4)- 3 games left 
@NYM (3)    MIN (3)                   5
HOU (3)    OAK (3)
@TOR (4)    @CLE (3)
BOS (3)    SEA (3)
@LAA (3)    @ SEA (4) 

HOU
    @DET (3)
@BOS (3)    NYY (3)                  5
@TEX (3)    SD (3)
OAK (3)    @KC (3)
BAL (3)     KC (3)
@SEA (3)    @ARZ (3)

LAA
     @NYM (3)
@PHI (3)    @OAK (3)                5
BAL (3)    CLE (4)
@SEA (3)    DET (3)
@TB (3)    @MIN(3)
TEX (3)    OAK (3)

SEA
    KC (3)
OAK (3)    @NYM (3)               5
@CIN (3)    @TB (4)
LAA (3)    LAD (3)
@OAK (3)    @TEX (3)
HOU (3)    TEX (4)
 

Texas has the hardest path by far!!! I think they will miss the playoffs.

[waroriole]

It might take 100 to win the division. I could see TB closing out 21-12, which would give them 99. They seem to have rallied themselves after Wander Franco went away.  

[Just Regular]

Viewing the last 11 series with the take that CLE in the 3rd to last, and BOS in the last series will be out of it, I think it unrolls that in as many as 7 out of 11 series opponent has nothing serious to play for, while the Orioles and Rays duel for the bye.

It could be a year for some Red Sox Curse of the Andino getting even though.

[Sports Guy]

I think the Os win the division by 4 or more games.