Grade our two deadline moves

[Billy F-Face3]

I also think it was very negligent to fail to get another consistently reliable bullpen arm. But with that said, I'm encouraged by what I saw from Perez and Krehbeil tonight in low leverage mop up duty. Krehbeil seems to have eliminated bad habits in the minors and he also have more velocity and movement than I remember from last season. Perez seems to be working himself out gradually. Hopefully he finds more consistency like he had last season in 2022. We've been waiting all year for that and he has showed a few flashes, but we need more than just flashes. We need consistency and reliability.

[Alasdaire]

46 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

But I keep coming back to the fact that other teams were able to make reasonable trades for impact talent this cycle, despite having less prospect talent to play with.  Why shouldn't we expect Elias to be able to do the same?  

Not at all an unfair question. And there's a lot we don't know, so much of this is conjecture.

One idea I've wondered about is how GMs interface with each other in different ways. It's all academic to us as fans, but the guys calling shots here have egos and reputations at stake. They want to be featured in the postmortem editorials as deadline "winners." They want to set a precedent for future negotiations. They think they can squeeze a team with deep pockets or inexperience in trade negotiations. There are relationships with agents/players that affect which teams they do business with and how.

All of these factors might have made it so that the demands being made of the O's/Elias were not the same as those from other GMs.

Take the Verlander trade. The O's could have met that asking price without breaking a sweat. What the Astros paid was the equivalent of Norby and Beavers. Is it possible that the Mets were willing to accept a price from Houston that they wouldn't from Baltimore for the reasons I mentioned above?

Despite what Astos prospects being pretty similar to the ones the O's could offer in that scenario, writers would say that the Mets squeezed Houston for the only prospects of value in their system, whereas that sort of return from the Orioles would be judged as lackluster given the alternatives. The Mets might have a working relationship with the O's that could lead to something bigger in the winter/future and want to save face by driving a hard bargain now. Or, as is most likely here, Verlander and his agent stepped in and said they didn't care what Baltimore was offering because they would only go to Houston.

The point is that we don't know what goes on in these negotiations. But I'm not going to disbelieve Elias when he says he made other offers.

I know this triggers some people who insist that nothing is promised tomorrow, but the probability is that we're only going to get better, in which case we're in the enviable position now that it's okay to wait if the other teams don't take those offers. That won't necessarily be the case in the future when our guys are approaching free agency and/or the roster is as complete as you can imagine but for a single position or two etc. But that's not now, so calibrating your model and letting the plays come to you or else not taking any at all is fine by me.

[Filmstudy]

I can't give one grade on these 2 moves.

Fuji A-:  Good shot at upside that will really work out if it does and Lucas is not a significant prospect, IMO.  Only reason this is not an A+ move is that the Orioles are going to take some actual ML risk with Fuji's wildness that could still bite them.

Flaherty D : The Orioles gave up some real talent (even if some blocked) to get a guy who may fill some innings, but I can't even find a split that leads me to optimism.  Leverage has not been his friend, the needle hasn't moved much by month, and LHB absolutely crush him (140 OPS+ with much of that coming in the form of a .403 OBP).  Add that to OPACY configuration and you have a recipe for failure.  If he takes starts from Kremer, I think he's taking innings from a better pitcher.  The only thing I can say is the Orioles must like him for some reason and maybe they can fix him, but he's 100% not built for our ballpark.

 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

But I keep coming back to the fact that other teams were able to make reasonable trades for impact talent this cycle, despite having less prospect talent to play with.  Why shouldn't we expect Elias to be able to do the same?  

Because our "lesser prospects" are better than some team's top prospects. I'm glad he didn't make a knee-jerk trade, nobody on the market would have moved the needle that much. In case you haven't been paying attention, this team is winning as constructed, and calling Flaherty the equivalent of Walmart is absurd.

Oh, about that "we all know Elias' drafting and development preferences" nonsense, he drafted 15 college pitchers among the 24 players drafted in 2023. Seeing how aggressive they are in moving people through the system, it's not unlikely that we'll start seeing a swing toward some pitchers in our top prospect list.

This team has arrived early, they have been playing grueling games all year long, knock down drag-out close games, and are winning. They are learning to win together and it only gets better from here.

Max Scherzer is worth 1.9 WAR this season his ERA+ is 102 and his FIP is 4.72. Flaherty is at 1.6 WAR with a 97 ERA+ and a 4.22 FIP. Scherzer is giving up a ton of HRs this year. 

I think Elias deserves the off-season to add to the rotation in a calculated fashion as opposed to not bowing to the fan's desire for some panic mode overpay deadline deals. The window is literally just cracking open and people are acting like it's now or never. This team is going to be very good for several years.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

Seriously…..You have low expectations 

[Baltimorecuse]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, how do you grade our combined deadline moves, compared to what we needed to get done?   Did we do enough?  Did we pay too much for what we got?  How do you feel overall?

In: Flaherty and Fujinami 

Out: Rom, Prieto, Showalter, Lucas

We've seen Fuji.  He's a total steal.  

Flaherty had 4 wins in July.   If he wins 4 in August Elias continues to be a genius.  Time will tell about the people we let go.  

[Moose Milligan]

Giving it a B-/B. 
 

I like the Fuji pickup, we didn’t have to give up much of anything at all.  And while he’s the bullpen darling du jour, the fastball doesn’t have a lot of movement on it, so I’m not sure if we should expect smooth sailing from him moving forward. That said, it’s an elite arm, no question about that. 
 

I don’t like that we gave away Showalter in the Flaherty deal. I do like that this appears to be a pickup where Elias is gambling on being able to get more out of a pitcher with the analytics and pitch mixing.  Flaherty has been good lately but overall I don’t think he moves the needle enough.  Good news is that he’s still pretty young. 
 

I don’t like that we didn’t get an additional bullpen arm. I’m not a DL Hall believer, I’m not sure how Wells will fare after he comes back from his rest. I’d have preferred to get a legit bullpen option instead of shuffling some guys around. 

[RarityFlaherty]

I have to say B+. Only reason it isn’t an A is because I would have liked to see us also get a high leverage lefty reliever. 
 

Everyone is saying Fuji is a steal, but don’t like Flaherty? I feel like people are seriously underestimating Flaherty’s upside. He’s only 27 and he has more post season experience than any of the names traded besides the much older Scherzer and Verlander. If his career hadn’t been derailed by injury, we’d be talking about getting one of the best young arms available. Now, he’s finally healthy, and trending in the right direction. And we really didn’t give up a whole lot for that upside. If we get his career back on track and are able to resign him, this turns into the steal of the trade deadline. Even if we don’t resign him, he’ll likely be a solid starter for us in the postseason. 

[Jagwar]

I'm guessing that Elias is counting on Means, Wells and Hall to be the impact bullpen additions. It's a risky gamble that could pay off, we shall see. 

[DirtyBird]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

But I keep coming back to the fact that other teams were able to make reasonable trades for impact talent this cycle, despite having less prospect talent to play with.  Why shouldn't we expect Elias to be able to do the same?  

I didn’t see much of any impact talent moved at the deadline.

[Bemorewins]

The trade feels like a do the bare minimum/least as possible kind of deal to continue to mitigate risk and kick the can of commitment/hard choices down the road for as long as possible. Kind of like what we have already been doing. But not like a typical move in our position in the standings.

However, IMO I don't it's fair to give this trade a grade now.

I think if Fujinama pitches well and/or Cano doesn't blow games in the 8th in big spots/playoffs; it will have proven to be a wise/good move in acquiring Fujinama and not adding to our bullpen otherwise. If not, and our bullpen proves to be our achilles heal and Fujinama blows a game or 2 or is not effective, then that's how this trade should be graded.

Likewise, if Flahrety pitches well down the stretch and in the postseason, it will be a good/great move. However, if not, then Elias should be rightly judge on those results.

At some point (because it's professional sports) winning has to matter and be the standard right? Not we tried hard, not we're still young, not we took "big swings and misses" or any other rational/excuses. If the O's make a deep run in the postseason, you have to grade the moves as successful. If not, I think it's fair that the org take heat and questions be legitimately asked in terms of why these moves? Or why didn't you do more?

[btownoriole]

Given the prices I think they did a nice job.  Would’ve liked another reliever but getting Fuji early was smart.  If they can get through the next couple of weeks their bullpen options will hopefully expand with Hall, Wells, Voth, Givens, and Means.  If just one or two of those guys pop it would help a ton.

[wildcard]

Going forward the O's have a #1 GRod, a #2 Bradish,  A # 3 Means, and two #4s in Wells and Kremer.

I am pretty impressive with what McDermott is doing.   He could help the rotation next year.

With that as the back story the O's needed a rental starter to help the rest of the season.  Flaherty fits that.

I fully expect  Santander to be traded over the winter for 4 starting prospects like Bundy was that brought back Bradish. This is what Elias does.   Trades for starter prospects.   Bradish, Johnson, McDermott, Povich.

Grade on the trades a B.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Giving it a B-/B. 
 

I like the Fuji pickup, we didn’t have to give up much of anything at all.  And while he’s the bullpen darling du jour, the fastball doesn’t have a lot of movement on it, so I’m not sure if we should expect smooth sailing from him moving forward. That said, it’s an elite arm, no question about that. 
 

I don’t like that we gave away Showalter in the Flaherty deal. I do like that this appears to be a pickup where Elias is gambling on being able to get more out of a pitcher with the analytics and pitch mixing.  Flaherty has been good lately but overall I don’t think he moves the needle enough.  Good news is that he’s still pretty young. 
 

I don’t like that we didn’t get an additional bullpen arm. I’m not a DL Hall believer, I’m not sure how Wells will fare after he comes back from his rest. I’d have preferred to get a legit bullpen option instead of shuffling some guys around. 

What do you know about Showalter?   He’s not in Tony’s top 30 and I could make the case that Luis DeLeon, Deivy Cruz, and a few others are as good or better prospects at Delmarva.   My initial feelings on Showalter is that he looks like a reliever and is doing a great job of utilizing his 92-94 fastball high in the zone but nothing else jumped out at me.

[25 Nuggets]

Based on what was given up, I'm pretty happy with it (B).  The Fuji trade was really good.  Flaherty's was meh, but he does give them what they need most and that's rotation innings.