Padres series

[Frobby]

Rodriguez (2-3, 5.84 ERA) vs. Darvish (8-7, 4.19)

Flaherty (8-7, 4.33$ vs. Wacha (8-2, 2.84) 

Kremer (11-4, 4.50) vs. Snell (9-8, 2.63)

On paper, the Padres have a big edge in all three pitching matchups, but the Padres have been far less than the sum of their parts.   Their Pythagorean record, at 65-53, is 9 games worse than their actual record.  Meanwhile the O’s have the identical Pythag to the Padres, but have exceeded it by 8 games.   

Darvish has pitched well of late, 2.55 ERA in his last 6 starts, with 5 of those starts being very good.  Shockingly, he’s only faced the Orioles once in his career, all the way back in 2016.   Wacha is coming off the IL, having last pitched a major league game on July 1.  The Padres are wasting no time reinserting him into the rotation, as he pitched only one rehab game, for 2 innings.  So, we can expect a short start for Wacha on Tuesday.  He has not fared well against the Orioles in the past, posting a 5.87 ERA against them in 9 starts.  Snell has been on fire, posting an incredible 1.16 ERA over his last 15 starts, though averaging only 5.67 IP in those starts.  The O’s have had pretty decent success against Snell in the past (4.58 ERA in 7 starts), but haven’t seen him since 2020.

The Padres rank 14th in runs/game at 4.58, whereas the Orioles average 4.87, 6th in MLB.  Both teams, however, have a 105 OPS+.   I think it’s fair to say that all the Padres’ key hitters (Soto, Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts) are having disappointing seasons, though for Soto, .915 OPS is his idea of “disappointing,” given his .944 career mark    The Padres are certainly a team capable of exploding at any time.

The Padres’ bullpen is a respectable 12th in MLB in ERA at 3.98, but they’ve been remarkably unclutch, sporting a 14-25 record.  They’ve allowed 39% on inherited runners to score, 2nd worst in MLB, and their 56% save rate is 7th worst.  The O’s pen, meanwhile, is 33-15, with a 3.62 ERA, 6th best in MLB.  Their inherited runner percentage is 37%, 7th worst in MLB, and their 60% save rate is 13th worst in MLB.  So, the O’s have the better bullpen in almost every respect, though our pen certainly has its flaws.  Hader is still very dominant at the back end (0.86 ERA) if they can get to him with the lead.

So, as often seems to be the case, the O’s goal should be to work the count and get the Padres’ starters out of the game as early as possible, and take advantage of their shaky middle relievers.   The Pads will look to do the same.  Should be a good series.  


 

 

[DirtyBird]

Just avoid a sweep

[Sports Guy]

More good pitching in a big park. Similar to Seattle although SD has more offensive talent.

Padres still have some chance to make the playoffs but they have to start getting hot like now. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

More good pitching in a big park. Similar to Seattle although SD has more offensive talent.

Padres still have some chance to make the playoffs but they have to start getting hot like now. 

I'd prefer they get hot 4 days from now. 

[HakunaSakata]

Call me crazy, but Snell's the only match-up that has me concerned. Yes, Darvish has been solid lately, but he's been wildly inconsistent all season and I really feel like Rodriguez is on the verge of a very dominant start. And I'd rather have Flaherty on the bump than Wacha. Hoping the O's can help error correct his unbelievable lucky ERA to the 4.20 xERA that it should be. 

[SteveA]

Well, our 27-10 record vs teams with a losing record will be put to the test I guess.  

Padres are 0-10 in extra innings, and 6-19 in 1-run games.    Orioles are 8-5, 22-11 in those categories.

[sportsfan8703]

I’ll just keep eating up the plus money from Vegas. Gotta love getting the best team in the AL as underdogs. 

From what we just saw in Seattle, the SP we face can only get worse. Wacha is a good matchup for us and Snell is a 5 and dive guy. Plus, I like our approach of being aggressive against big time pitchers. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

I don't think it's a trap series necessarily because they have good starters going and they have a dangerous lineup, even if it's inconsistent. But I doubt they catch the O's sleepwalking or coming off of an emotional letdown; they've been so good about showing up to each game with the same scrappy attitude. I think the games will be close and the O's take 2 of 3.

[Moose Milligan]

As usual, hoping for a series win. 
 

Padres are the biggest mystery in the game to me. They’ve got a lot of talent but they don’t win much. 

[AdamK]

This team deserves to be able to enjoy some nice weather.

Have some laughs, Os. Keep it fun.

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Darvish has pitched well of late, 2.55 ERA in his last 6 starts, with 5 of those starts being very good.  Shockingly, he’s only faced the Orioles once in his career, all the way back in 2016.

There was that one other time in 2012 at the end of his USA debut season!

[SteveA]

14 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

There was that one other time in 2012 at the end of his USA debut season!

He was no match for Joe Saunders.

[ChosenOne21]

52 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

There was that one other time in 2012 at the end of his USA debut season!

Beat me to it faster than the Orioles beat Yu Darvish.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Now the real question will Orioles announcers just refer to Manny Machado as "that guy" at third base all series?

Maybe it will be like Tecmo Bowl when they didn't have the license to use Randall Cunnungham's name and he was just called QB Eagles in the game.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[LookinUp]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

More good pitching in a big park. Similar to Seattle although SD has more offensive talent.

Padres still have some chance to make the playoffs but they have to start getting hot like now. 

I suspect this is part of the reason the Padres underperform, though certainly not the only reason.

They have star pitchers and hitters, but how many of those stars are great defenders, or good at manufacturing runs, moving runners over, etc.?

It feels like a team that if you keep the ball in the park and grind out a few runs, you have a sold chance to win.