The starters’ innings thread

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Agreed.

One thing I'll saying regarding Grayson - I am certain that the Orioles have all kinds of data that they're looking at regarding his usage going forward.  Not just his performance but historical data, patterns, past injuries, etc..  

Listening to Eno on 'Rates and Barrels' and he was talking about the Saber conference in Chicago (around the 50-minute mark).  As part of that, he mentioned there's a significant gap from teams who focus on biomechanics and those who don't.   I suspect the O's are on the "Haves" side of that gap and have the data.  It's just a matter of measuring the right thing and having an actionable solution for problems as needed.  IP limits were probably based on building strength (bio) to support the mechanics.  In theory, if Grayson has the sum total of biomechanics, then there's no need for an IP limit.  Just maintenance.  If Grayson isn't on an IP limit as Elias has said, then he'll be a data plot for/against the new narrative.

[Just Regular]

The team supporting the individual - as we get to Oakland and the easier on paper stretch at last, the more Wins that can get banked, the more the important pitchers can get extended spring training handling.

It might be possible to open up space as the Rays grapple with McClanahan and Wander and we get some A's and Rockies games.

If the division is gained and the entire Club gets basically the week off, it will be some fun theater to see how Sigbot choreographs the ALDS pitching.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How much is this really a thing?  The whole league had to do this after the Covid shortened season.  I think we'll be cautious, but I don't think you'll see 3 IP starts.  We may see skipped starts, or even a 7 man rotation, but we won't see 3 IP starts.  

I think performance will dictate the approach.  If velocity and command are holding up, they’ll keep putting them out there.   

[Jim'sKid26]

27 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How much is this really a thing?  The whole league had to do this after the Covid shortened season.  I think we'll be cautious, but I don't think you'll see 3 IP starts.  We may see skipped starts, or even a 7 man rotation, but we won't see 3 IP starts.  

This issue was initially brought to the fore by sports writer Tom Verducci and Oakland A's pitching coach Rick Peterson a few years ago. Thus named the "Verducci Effect."

There are now a lot of people who think there is little to no science behind the theory.

This is an article from Rush in Chicago looking at cumulative work load.

How many innings can we throw: does workload influence injury risk in Major League Baseball? An analysis of professional starting pitchers between 2010 and 2015 - ScienceDirect

The conclusion is:

"In this study, we demonstrate that there is no association between preceding years of cumulative pitches, starts, innings pitched, or average pitches per start and being placed on the DL for any musculoskeletal reason."

Here is an interesting summation of the Verducci Effect from Russell A. Carleton at Baseball Prospectus. 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/19497/baseball-therapy-fact-or-fiction-the-verducci-effect/#:~:text=Pitchers in the Verducci group,80 percent of their games.

His conclusion:

" ...The problem of the Verducci Effect formulation is that the sample is far too heterogeneous to expect coherent effects out of it. Maybe the real frontier here is in breaking players down into sub-groups based on how they got onto that list to begin with. It's much more complex, doesn't fit nicely onto the page of a magazine, and it's the way that real research is done."

I think that the bottom line is that each individual pitcher has a unique workload tolerance based on many complex variables that include a wide variety of  things. Some measurable, some not so much. 

[Just Regular]

Also, just to kick the can in hindsight with the most famous example in memory, Strasburg did eventually get his Club the flag that flies forever as the clock struck midnight on his career as a great pitcher, but my feeling is the Nationals screwed up in 2012.

I'll deal with it if Grayson loses (or better, wins!) Game 7 of some important series.

Today he's at kind of a fun point for stress testing that Flags Fly Forever mentality.      Would you take the deal if it could be guaranteed he shows old Max Scherzer and young Spencer Strider whose is the greatest talent and is this year's World Series MVP but is never good again?

[Orioles0615]

19 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Also, just to kick the can in hindsight with the most famous example in memory, Strasburg did eventually get his Club the flag that flies forever as the clock struck midnight on his career as a great pitcher, but my feeling is the Nationals screwed up in 2012.

I'll deal with it if Grayson loses (or better, wins!) Game 7 of some important series.

Today he's at kind of a fun point for stress testing that Flags Fly Forever mentality.      Would you take the deal if it could be guaranteed he shows old Max Scherzer and young Spencer Strider whose is the greatest talent and is this year's World Series MVP but is never good again?

It's been 40 years 

[Spy Fox]

22 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Also, just to kick the can in hindsight with the most famous example in memory, Strasburg did eventually get his Club the flag that flies forever as the clock struck midnight on his career as a great pitcher, but my feeling is the Nationals screwed up in 2012.

So true about the clock striking midnight for Strasburg. I wonder how much the effort of that postseason may have contributed to his disappearance. He threw more innings that postseason (36.1) than he has in the four seasons since (31.1). And that was after throwing 209 innings in the regular season, so 245 innings as a 30 year old who had only topped 185 innings once before (in 2014). 

Also, were the 2019 Nats the most epic case ever of ace SPs carrying a team to October success? They were 10-0 in games Strasburg or Scherzer pitched. 2-5 when they didn't. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

With a 6 man rotation, we can easily option any SP to the minors for the minimum 10 days and only skip them one start. They could do something like a 40-pitch AA start on their normally scheduled start day that’s basically a glorified bullpen session. 

With Bradish in good shape IP-wise and Kremer not likely to be in the playoff rotation, I think they will only consider doing this with Grayson. But Bradish they need starting in the playoffs, so they could do it with him as well if he shows any signs of fatigue.

They’ll have a nice opportunity to do this seamlessly without any spot starters if they insert Means back into the rotation on Sept 1. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

So...everyone knows alot of these guys are at their innings limit. The question is, what is their inning ceiling in the future, this year and beyond? How many of these guys are 175-200 inning guys this year and in the future? 

Means, Bradish, Kremer, Rodriguez, Wells, Irvin

[eddie83]

Wonder if they get cute in September and possibly option Grayson so they can manage his innings. 
 

Best thing the Orioles can do is to get a big lead in the standings. 

[Frobby]

Update through Aug. 28, 2023 vs. previous high (majors and minors included):

Rodriguez 134.1/103.0

Kremer 144.0/134.1

Bradish 138.2/145.1

Wells 124.1/119.1

Looks like Wells will not be used as a starter if he returns. 

[Tony-OH]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Update through Aug. 28, 2023 vs. previous high (majors and minors included):

Rodriguez 134.1/103.0

Kremer 144.0/134.1

Bradish 138.2/145.1

Wells 124.1/119.1

Looks like Wells will not be used as a starter if he returns. 

Rodriguez is the only one I'd have any concern about but as long as he's pumping 100 MPH in the 6th inning of starts I'm going to assume he's just fine. I don't think we'll see any concerns with Bradish and Kremer when it comes to innings other than to pull them after the 5th inning and the bullpen is fresh if they maybe got a big lead. 

I forgot about Wells when talking about Sept promotions in another thread. I suspect he will get that call and go to the pen with Baker and Baumann waiting in Norfolk in case of injury.

[Jim'sKid26]

This is a pretty good article by Zach Rymer from Bleacher Report, https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1622573-do-innings-limits-pitch-counts-actually-prevent-serious-injuries

" The key numbers here is that 39% of all starting pitchers will end up on the DL the following season after being a starter in the league the year before. Those injuries will result in an average of 66.3 days lost per trip..." That is a really big number and appears to be unavoidable. There's a lot to this issue but that a great rough number to consider. 

His conclusion is a provocative one: "But the emphasis on pitch counts and innings limits obscures a central fact: Pitchers are overpitched and undertrained. The reason everybody goes nutty when the White Sox allow Chris Sale to throw 115 pitches on May 28 and 119 on June 3 isn't because there's some magic number that portends weakness or injury or imminent surgery. Instead, it's because most professional pitchers aren't allowed to train their arms to throw 110-plus pitches in a game and be in a position to be strong five days later."

Perhaps limiting pitchers is the wrong thing to do. It's a fascinating aspect of this game and one that is evolving as we watch.

 

[Frobby]

The back to back short starts from Rodriguez and Kremer (his second consecutive short start) make me wonder if our guys are hitting the wall.  The updated numbers though 9/11:

Rodriguez 144.2/103.0

Kremer 159.0/134.1

Bradish 145.2/145.1

Wells 126.0/119.1

Rodriguez and Kremer are way past their previous highs, Bradish (who hasn’t showed any signs of faltering yet) just nosed past his, and the O’s have been nursing Wells along in the minors an inning or two at a time.

I’m not pushing the panic button just yet on either Rodriguez or Kremer, but I’m nervous.

 

 

[Just Regular]

In the spirit of the job he's been doing for this Club all year long, tomorrow I expect Kyle Gibson to throw perhaps as many as 120-ish pitches almost regardless of circumstances.

I guess it is technically feasible to bypass Flaherty and pitch Grayson/Kremer on 4 days rest Friday/Saturday to redeploy the Flaherty game to a Means game or a bullpen game.

McDermott's first 2 appearances this month have fallen on Saturdays, in case he's a weapon they may be thinking about using this weekend.