Should we offer extensions to any of our starting pitchers, either now or in the offseason?

[Frobby]

We’ve had lots of talk about trying to extend Adley or Gunnar, but no real discussions about our starting pitchers.   Maybe that’s for the best, since you never know which pitchers will be derailed by injuries.  But just for sake of discussion, let’s take stock.  

Grayson Rodriguez: 23 years old, under control for 6 more seasons through age 29.   Could be a Super-2 after the 2025 season. 

Kyle Bradish: 26 years old, under control for 5 more seasons through age 31.  Highly likely to be a Super 2 after the 2024 season.

Dean Kremer: 27 years old, under control for 4 more seasons through age 31.   Very outside shot he could be a Super-2 at the end of this season, but it’s unlikely.

Tyler Wells: 28 years old, under control for 3-4 more seasons depending on how quickly he’s called up, through age 31-32.   Will probably be a Super-2 this winter if he doesn’t reach 3 years of service.  

Cole Irvin: 29 years old, under control for 3 more seasons through age 32.

John Means: 29 years old, under control for 1 more season through age 30.   However, if the O’s chose to option him after his rehab stint is over, he would not reach 5 years of service this year and would remain under control for two more years through age 31, I believe.  

Jack Flaherty: 27 years old, will be a free agent when the season ends.   

Kyle Gibson: 35 years old, will be a free agent when this season ends.  

The service time twists with Wells and Means are interesting, and not something I’d focused on until writing this up.  Wells was optioned on August 1.   My recollection is that if you are recalled within 20 days of being sent down, your service time in the intervening period is restored; otherwise, it’s not.  So if the O’s don’t recall Wells by August 21, he’ll end this year short of 3 years of service. It will be interesting to see how the O’s play that.  He’s had two fairly effective 3.1 inning outings in Bowie, the most recent on August 12.  He went a week between outings.   If he has one more outing, depending on timing and length, he might not be available to pitch until after August 21, so the O’s might not recall him until after then and he’d lose his full year of service.  How’s that going to play with Wells and the Orioles clubhouse?  Similarly with Means, what if he’s not that effective in his rehab and the O’s option him to Norfolk?   How’s that going to sit?  And, would either of these scenarios impact any thinking about an extension for Wells or Means?

Anyway, is there anyone on the list you want to extend, either before or after the season?

[RZNJ]

Means and GRod would be the only two to consider.  Means because how close he is to FA and GRod because of what he might become.

[Sports Guy]

No

[clapdiddy]

I tend to lean "no".  None of these guys strike me as being "irreplaceable".   Grayson could be "that guy", but I think they could wait until next year to explore an extension with him.   Even at that, pitchers are so volatile, I'd have no issues with not extending any pitcher.

[ThisIsBirdland]

I think you hit the nail on the head with the potential for injuries. I don't know how often young, controllable SPs are locked up early in their clocks as opposed to the young position players you more typically see.

[Yossarian]

The Orioles have 3 or so years to collect data and evaluate most of these guys.  If they can sustain production, or improve, I would look into extending them at that time.  There is no rush now. 

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The service time twists with Wells and Means are interesting, and not something I’d focused on until writing this up.  Wells was optioned on August 1.   My recollection is that if you are recalled within 20 days of being sent down, your service time in the intervening period is restored; otherwise, it’s not.  So if the O’s don’t recall Wells by August 21, he’ll end this year short of 3 years of service. It will be interesting to see how the O’s play that.

I have my microscope zoomed in on this, and will take it as a bad sign if next Opening Day Tyler Wells has anything short of 3.000 service time.

I get bloodless arbitrage it is an asset that can be seized, but that guy is I feel part of the close knit clubhouse, and they are all watching how cheap this organization will be.     Rested he is in Tier 1 of the Club's pitchers - Adley knows this, Bryan Baker knows this, Brandon Hyde knows this, Tyler Wells knows this, and how will you treat your Tier 1 performers?

On the general question, I think its just Grayson.     If Bradish happened it would be a promising sign Sigbot is bought in on him being durably good, and I'm sure the "offers worked on every day" include Club options more often than the Players probably care to see.     Bradish today is in a spot where he's earned a few millions, but dozens of millions are not yet assured.

Early career extensions do occasionally happen in these heading towards playoffs periods of goodwill, so someone might be possible these last 6-7 weeks.

 

[24fps]

I don't believe John Angelos will approve an extension for any player before at least the end of the 2024 season if we're talking about buying out arb and early FA years.  And maybe not ever.  I can see ML pitchers like Means and Gibson being re-signed to short multi-year contracts for 2024 and beyond.

Edited August 15, 2023 by 24fps

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Means and GRod would be the only two to consider.  Means because how close he is to FA and GRod because of what he might become.

This. Although Grayson is the least urgent so I don't see that happening any time soon. 

Means makes the most sense. We could also leverage the QO, and coming off surgery he may have incentive to accept a team friendly deal. 

[mddisney]

Jack and Means if he is healthy.  G-Rod i need to see more

Edited August 15, 2023 by mddisney

[glenn__davis]

If Means looks good upon return I might offer him 2 years maybe.  But that would be all.

[Jim'sKid26]

I agree with @Sports Guy. No. 

The euphoria of Grayson's last start notwithstanding, he's the only one who interests me enough to extend and I'm not completely convinced yet on how to value him. I believe this team, in its current ownership structure, cannot withstand a bad contract for a SP. So I would not offer any extensions at this time.

[CaptainRedbeard]

They could consider extending Means in the offseason if he comes back and shows he’s the same pitcher he was before the injury. But I’m not sure he’ll have enough innings this year to be able to make that conclusion. 

For Wells I don’t think they could be accused of service time manipulation. It’s a similar scenario with Baker, who was also just over a full year of service. Both earned their demotions with poor performance. And both could easily end up getting optioned next year as well. 

For Means, if he comes back and looks good it will definitely look like service time manipulation. But if he looks good, I think the Orioles won’t care about trying to get the extra year. He’s one of our best SP and we’ll want him starting in the playoffs with a month of MLB starts under his belt. But if he doesn’t look like he’s all the way back, I think that does tip the decision towards optioning him rather than sticking him in the pen while he continues working back. 

[Fiver6565]

I'd try to see if Flaherty would be agreeable to a 3 year deal.  Only 28 next year, and its likely we look to sign one 'veteran' at least anyway, might as well be somebody who we know a little about. 

Maybe Means also, if he's agreeable to a 'prove it' type extension for a couple years.  He strikes me as someone who might want to stick around to be a longer term part of this turnaround, after the lean years he was part of.

[OriolesMagic83]

53 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I have my microscope zoomed in on this, and will take it as a bad sign if next Opening Day Tyler Wells has anything short of 3.000 service time.

I get bloodless arbitrage it is an asset that can be seized, but that guy is I feel part of the close knit clubhouse, and they are all watching how cheap this organization will be.     Rested he is in Tier 1 of the Club's pitchers - Adley knows this, Bryan Baker knows this, Brandon Hyde knows this, Tyler Wells knows this, and how will you treat your Tier 1 performers?

On the general question, I think its just Grayson.     If Bradish happened it would be a promising sign Sigbot is bought in on him being durably good, and I'm sure the "offers worked on every day" include Club options more often than the Players probably care to see.     Bradish today is in a spot where he's earned a few millions, but dozens of millions are not yet assured.

Early career extensions do occasionally happen in these heading towards playoffs periods of goodwill, so someone might be possible these last 6-7 weeks.

 

I question whether Elias has the authority to extend anyone.  If no extension offers are made this off-season it will bolster my belief this franchise is being run on a shoe string.