Is Elias the best GM in team history?

[Moose Milligan]

Obviously his chapter as GM isn't over, but is he already the best GM in Orioles history?  Yes, hyperbole, recency bias, etc.

There's a lot of great GMs in the history of the team; Harry Dalton, Lee MacPhail, Frank Cashen, Henry Peters, Pat Gillick and Dan Duquette.  I am sure I am probably missing a name or two.

But when you consider that a lot of those names weren't competing in an era where free agency wasn't a thing or when free agency was in it's infancy, I think Elias is in a class of his own.  Gillick and Duquette were "win now" types that didn't put too much of an emphasis on the minor league system, even though DD's fingerprints are on the team that won the division last night.  But I always think of DD as a guy who was fixing an airplane while it was flying.

Taking into consideration the amount that other teams in the division spend and that the system was in the lower third of practically every ranking when he took over, it's hard not to look at Elias as the best GM in the history of the franchise.  Going from 52 wins two years ago to 100 wins and a division title in two years is something no one has done in baseball history, IIRC.  It's been a complete overhaul and it's a new "Oriole Way."

Like I said, his chapter isn't over yet but given his circumstances (read: dealing with John Angelos) I do believe he's the best we've had.  

Edited September 29, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Frobby]

You didn’t name the one I’d pick, Paul Richards.  He established the entire “Oriole Way.”  The team didn’t have a winning season until the year he turned over the reins to MacPhail (though Richards remained the manager), but he basically built the foundation that underlaid the team having 24 winning seasons in 26 years.

I do think that Elias is right up there, though.  The organization was in desperate straits when he took the reins, and now they are well-positioned for a long run of success. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

I’m not enough of an Os history guy to speak definitively about the pre-Pat Gillick days, but he’s certainly the best in my lifetime and it isn’t close. Also while Elias appropriately credits DD for having a few pieces in place, DD also had quite a few key pieces from Andy MacPhail.

I was happy to see Elias give Angelos pretty effusive, unprompted praise last night in his interview. I don’t care for Angelos at all but given the fans collective angst that Angelos and Elias will ultimately want a divorce sooner rather than later, I don’t think you’d see the GM volunteering those comments unprompted if there was legitimate tension behind the scenes. Obviously it could just be Elias caught up in the moment or playing good professional politics, but I thought it was a good sign. 

[DrungoHazewood]

It's hard to say because the landscape has changed so much in the time the modern Orioles have been in Baltimore. I think Paul Richards was in a similar situation, taking over a team that the Browns left with almost nothing and building the foundations of a dynasty.

Certainly every GM from about 1980 until Elias has to take serious demerits for overseeing a farm system that's rarely been even average despite regular high draft picks. Although it's always hard to disentangle ownership from GM in many ways. I'd argue any kind of success under the Angelos family gets you an automatic letter grade bump up.

Elias' final transcripts aren't set yet. He's done a fantastic job rebuilding, but with any luck he'll be here quite a bit longer. That could move him solidly towards the top of the list, or maybe not.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ned Hanlon is also on the shortlist for taking a mediocre American Association team and turning them into one with three consecutive NL Championships followed by strong contention in the following three years.

But he does get some negative marks for his actions that directly resulted in the dismantling and contraction of the Orioles in 1899. So a little like if Elias' teams won the 2023-25 World Series, then moved to Nashville in '28.

[spleen1015]

I want to see more years of Elias before I say he is the best. He was the GM at the helm of two 100 loss seasons. I know that was part of the strategy, but 100 loss seasons are 100 loss seasons. It looks like he's set the team up for many years of success, but at this point they've only won 1 AL East title.

Lee MacPhail gets my vote simply for the Frank Robinson trade. I think it might be the most impactful transaction in the franchise's history.

[dystopia]

I feel like Andy MacPhail deserves some love. He made excellent trades that were instrumental in our success from 2012-2016. 
 

If Elias isn’t the best, though, I’d like to know who is. Look what he started with. No other GM inherited a bigger mess. 

[Sports Guy]

Not yet..they have to win a lot more.

[25 Nuggets]

Let's revisit this in five seasons.

[Sports Guy]

He is the most important person in the entire organization though.

[LookinUp]

Put me in the "it takes longevity" camp.

I love what he's doing though. I really love that we have two top 30ish prospects in baseball that weren't top picks (Mayo, Basallo), and I love that Bradish is a stud, Felix, Cano, Gunnar...just a lot of examples of why we're good even without the top overall draft guys (who are also good to say the least).

[tntoriole]

I believe Mike Elias has been more transformative than any GM in Os history. 
The very early hire of Koby Perez spoke volumes to me that this guy was about building a new structure unlike any before. 
From bringing Sig, to the analytics revamping, to the scouting and the player development departments, to the international presence and academy… Mike Elias has built structures that are necessary in modern baseball for success.  No other previous GM did that kind of organizational rebuild. 
Elias from day one has been about process and structure and we can all be proud of his work and it will bring great fruit going forward. 
I grade his work on all he has done in these past years, not just the fruit we see now. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by tntoriole

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Put me in the "it takes longevity" camp

Elias has been here 5 years.  Here’s the tenure of our other GMs:

Art Ehlers 1 year (1954)

Paul Richards 5 years (1955-59)

Lee MacPail 6 years (1960-65) 

Harry Dalton 6 years (1966-71)

Frank Cashen 4 years (1972-75)

Hank Peters 12 years (1975-87)

Roland Hemond 8 years (1988-95)

Pat Gillick 3 years (1996-98)

Frank Wren 1 year (1999)

Syd Thrift 3 years (2000-02)

Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan 3 years (2003-05)

Mike Flanagan 1.5 years (2006-07)

Andy MacPhail 4.5 years (2007-11)

Dan Duquette 7 years (2012-18)

Mike Elias 5+ years (2019 - present)

So, Elias already has outlasted 8 of the 14 GM’s who preceded him.  How much more longevity do you think he needs in order to be considered seriously for no. 1?   Personally, I do think we need to see what happens with the franchise the next couple of years before fully judging his body of work, but not too much longer.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, Elias already has outlasted 8 of the 14 GM’s who preceded him.  How much more longevity do you think he needs in order to be considered seriously for no. 1?   Personally, I do think we need to see what happens with the franchise the next couple of years before fully judging his body of work, but not too much longer.

Good point. Longevity of results probably matters more. You could argue that Elias could leave after we win the WS this year, we win another couple in the next 5 years, and he gets the lion's share of the credit and becomes the best GM in our team's history.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

I feel like Andy MacPhail deserves some love. He made excellent trades that were instrumental in our success from 2012-2016.

He did some things well. But he was also the GM who either championed or was okay with the idea that the only source of talent that met his ROI threshold was at-slot draft picks. No overslots. No international signings. Little in the way of creative trades. Basically no innovative scouting, analysis, development. Very little successful reclamation projects or Grade C prospects turning into solid MLB players. Pitching development and sustainment was terrifying under his leadership, at least at times.

The 2008-10 teams were not only trainwrecks, but directionless trainwrecks with half a dozen so-so 30+ year-old players on $7M contracts.

He gets a full letter grade deduction just for starting a season with Luis ".592 OPS in Bowie" Hernandez as the only plausible option at SS.