Jim Callis Os trade ideas

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

You don’t give up both Kjersted and Beavers. If you have to trade Kjersted, Beaver is the guy coming up behind him to hopefully fill the same role.

Agreed, but there’s a framework for a deal in there.  

[Sports Guy]

Cease saw a pretty good drop in his fastball velo in 2023.

When you look at his statcast data, 2022 really stands out but other than that, the data is nothing special.

The BB rate is high and is usually high in general. He does an excellent job of missing bats but he doesn’t throw enough strikes. League average is 63.9%. He has never been over 62.3% in any season and he has only been over 62% in 2 of his 5 seasons.

His K rate is excellent but it has gone down each of the last few years.

Im not saying I wouldn’t want him but I think he’s very overrated because of 2022 and that was a year where his BABiP was only 260. Now, it was 330 this past year and the WS were a disaster, so I also think he’s better than he showed in 2023.

170ish IP of 3.5-3.8 ERA baseball would be my expectation of him and you will be paying him a decent amount of money for that.  He has been durable the last 3 seasons too but despite making 32 or more starts, the innings count stays lower because he doesn’t throw strikes.

What is that worth? It’s a tough call. He certainly has the ability to be more than that but it’s not likely he will be more than that. He’s still young, so that’s a positive but still until he starts throwing more strikes, I think you can only expect so much.

So, what is a 170 IP, 3.5 ERA starter worth?  He probably gets something in the neighborhood of 8M in 2024 and is looking at 12-18M in 2025 depending on how good he good he is in 2024.

My guess is whatever I would be willing to trade for him isn’t enough to get him.

Now, let’s talk about Robert too and then we can start throwing out some of the “bigger” names.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Wish Callis had done a potential Mariners trade for Miller or Woo, given that would be built around prospect for prospect, to get his take on their respective trade value now.

Looking at SEA again, J.P. Crawford had an excellent breakout year at the plate but his defensive metrics at SS have been quite bad for 2 years in a row. He’ll be 29 next year so they’re not likely to reverse course. They have Suarez for 2024 + a 2025 option at 3B. Maybe they consider moving Crawford to 2B or 3B in the near future and that makes Ortiz as a SS more appealing than Westburg?

They also really need corner OF / DH / 1B. 

Does Ortiz, Hays and O’Hearn get Miller/Woo and Matt Brash? Or add in more prospects, or swap out Brash for one of their many lesser but still good RP?

[dystopia]

10 hours ago, banks703 said:

His 3.7 WAR (good for 18th among pitchers, just behind Bradish and just above Burnes) says hello.

Acquiring Cease would upgrade the rotation more than either of the three other deals. And no, I’m not a big fan of Cease but he would instantly become at least the O’s second best pitcher. 

No he wouldn’t. He walks way too many guys. His ERA was 4.5 and FG giving him a 3.7 WAR for that is a sick joke. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Cease saw a pretty good drop in his fastball velo in 2023.

When you look at his statcast data, 2022 really stands out but other than that, the data is nothing special.

The BB rate is high and is usually high in general. He does an excellent job of missing bats but he doesn’t throw enough strikes. League average is 63.9%. He has never been over 62.3% in any season and he has only been over 62% in 2 of his 5 seasons.

His K rate is excellent but it has gone down each of the last few years.

Im not saying I wouldn’t want him but I think he’s very overrated because of 2022 and that was a year where his BABiP was only 260. Now, it was 330 this past year and the WS were a disaster, so I also think he’s better than he showed in 2023.

170ish IP of 3.5-3.8 ERA baseball would be my expectation of him and you will be paying him a decent amount of money for that.  He has been durable the last 3 seasons too but despite making 32 or more starts, the innings count stays lower because he doesn’t throw strikes.

What is that worth? It’s a tough call. He certainly has the ability to be more than that but it’s not likely he will be more than that. He’s still young, so that’s a positive but still until he starts throwing more strikes, I think you can only expect so much.

So, what is a 170 IP, 3.5 ERA starter worth?  He probably gets something in the neighborhood of 8M in 2024 and is looking at 12-18M in 2025 depending on how good he good he is in 2024.

My guess is whatever I would be willing to trade for him isn’t enough to get him.

Now, let’s talk about Robert too and then we can start throwing out some of the “bigger” names.

It seems to me the flaws you point out are all fixable. If you treat 2022 as potential, instead of an outlier, Cease is rather valuable. Especially if you are correct about the money. At the risk of sounding absurd, Cease looks remarkably similar to Gerrit Cole when he was with the Pirates in 2017, the year before he was traded to Houston and became a cornerstone in their rotation. I'm not saying Cease will become another Cole, but at his age with his stuff, it's not an extreme stretch to think he might take a significant step forward pitching for a team that can help him improve. The Orioles have shown that they can do that. Just a glass half full opinion.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

It seems to me the flaws you point out are all fixable. If you treat 2022 as potential, instead of an outlier, Cease is rather valuable. Especially if you are correct about the money. At the risk of sounding absurd, Cease looks remarkably similar to Gerrit Cole when he was with the Pirates in 2017, the year before he was traded to Houston and became a cornerstone in their rotation. I'm not saying Cease will become another Cole, but at his age with his stuff, it's not an extreme stretch to think he might take a significant step forward pitching for a team that can help him improve. The Orioles have shown that they can do that. Just a glass half full opinion.

I don’t see that comp. Cole has/had far better control and threw a lot more innings. He was easily better than Cease.

He is about to be 28 years old and he has consistently, throughout his entire career, struggled to throw strikes.

Maybe it turns around but there is no reason to think it will.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[oriole]

55 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Wish Callis had done a potential Mariners trade for Miller or Woo, given that would be built around prospect for prospect, to get his take on their respective trade value now.

Looking at SEA again, J.P. Crawford had an excellent breakout year at the plate but his defensive metrics at SS have been quite bad for 2 years in a row. He’ll be 29 next year so they’re not likely to reverse course. They have Suarez for 2024 + a 2025 option at 3B. Maybe they consider moving Crawford to 2B or 3B in the near future and that makes Ortiz as a SS more appealing than Westburg?

They also really need corner OF / DH / 1B. 

Does Ortiz, Hays and O’Hearn get Miller/Woo and Matt Brash? Or add in more prospects, or swap out Brash for one of their many lesser but still good RP?

Unless you feel like you’re giving up too much, it’s not a realistic trade suggestion. Ortiz, Hays, and O’Hearn doesn’t get you anything. For both Miller/Woo and Brash you’d have to be giving up something like Cowser, Urias, and Povich. Something substantial

[RZNJ]

Cease has both floor and ceiling and it makes sense for the WS to deal him AND they are a team where prospects make sense.   There’s nothing that says he’s going to suddenly become a strike thrower but he’s at the age and experience level where it’s possible.  Bradish was able to greatly improve his strike throwing last year.  I have to imagine our defense being more reliable than last years WS team as well.

He’s probably the most realistic target out there for a pitcher that has #1 or #2 potential.

[RZNJ]

Bryan Woo is an ok target but he doesn’t have much track record even in the minors and looks very fastball reliant.  His splits against LHB (.283 avg .928 OPS) are a red flag.   
 

With Robbie Ray probably due back early in early season, Woo might be more available than Gilbert or Kirby but I’d be a little leary if he is available.

Edited October 22, 2023 by RZNJ

[Say O!]

Better to overpay in prospect trade or in FA?  That will be the question for Elias to answer.

In same article, Callis links to his last inbox where he projected end of 2025 position players for the Os — LINK.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Better to overpay in prospect trade or in FA?  That will be the question for Elias to answer.

In same article, Callis links to his last inbox where he projected end of 2025 position players for the Os — LINK.

I don’t think that’s a question for Elias..it’s one for Angelos.

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 hours ago, oriole said:

Unless you feel like you’re giving up too much, it’s not a realistic trade suggestion. Ortiz, Hays, and O’Hearn doesn’t get you anything. For both Miller/Woo and Brash you’d have to be giving up something like Cowser, Urias, and Povich. Something substantial

I’d definitely do that instead. I think Ortiz, Hays and O’Hearn is perhaps a better return than Cowser, Urias and Povich, or at least very close. It really depends on how much trade value Hays has, Cowser and Ortiz are close and Urias has very little. I think Hays with 2 years is a pretty solid piece so you have to value Povich a lot to prefer that package. 

I don’t think it’s necessarily enough to get Brash too, I just really like Brash. But I think Ortiz and Hays together are worth more than Miller/Woo so they should bring back another RP with them. And the Mariners have so much of a need for bats that they could be interested in O’Hearn as well, and his value in a cheap last year of arbitration isn’t negligible. 

[oriole]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I’d definitely do that instead. I think Ortiz, Hays and O’Hearn is perhaps a better return than Cowser, Urias and Povich, or at least very close. It really depends on how much trade value Hays has, Cowser and Ortiz are close and Urias has very little. I think Hays with 2 years is a pretty solid piece so you have to value Povich a lot to prefer that package. 

I don’t think it’s necessarily enough to get Brash too, I just really like Brash. But I think Ortiz and Hays together are worth more than Miller/Woo so they should bring back another RP with them. And the Mariners have so much of a need for bats that they could be interested in O’Hearn as well, and his value in a cheap last year of arbitration isn’t negligible. 

It depends on how you’re valuing guys, for sure. Povich is generally well regarded it seems, despite his not so great numbers. But Cowser is a top prospect, so he’s the main piece by a large margin. 
 

I feel like both Hays and O’Hearn have zero value. Urias probably does too, now that he is hiring arbitration. Ortiz is the only player you mentioned that is worth anything, and really he is likely a solid utility guy more than a starter on a good team. 

[bpilktree]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who would you put in Center?

AAron Hicks lol.  
 

in all honesty I would do Mullins for Burns trade then go out and sign Harrison Bader to play center next year then move him to left when Bradfield is ready replacing Hays who you trade next off season.  
 

What would it cost you think to sign Bader?  3 years 33 million or 2 for 25 million?

[bpilktree]

53 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

AAron Hicks lol.  
 

in all honesty I would do Mullins for Burns trade then go out and sign Harrison Bader to play center next year then move him to left when Bradfield is ready replacing Hays who you trade next off season.  
 

What would it cost you think to sign Bader?  3 years 33 million or 2 for 25 million?

That probably more then Bader would get with him struggling down stretch thus season.  Maybe more like 2 at 20 million for his defense and splits vs lefties.  
 

Last year I was high on trading Mullins for Lopez and signing Nimmo though he ended getting much more then I anticipated.  If Mullins can net you a top of rotation guy I think you have to move him as he will be traded at some point in next 1+ years.