What Kind of Production Do You Think The Rookies Actually Produce in 2024?

[Pickles]

So a lot of discussion in several threads about the possibility of trading Santander and/or Hays to open playing time for one or both of Kjerstad and/or Cowser.  With Hays and Santander we have a pretty solid grasp on what their value/production is, but their replacements' production could run the entire spectrum it seems.  A big part of the equation is simply unknownable and requires one to project.

So that's the question: What kind of production do you think the rookies actually provide in 2024?

First a little perspective.

Kjerstad slashed 233/281/467/748 in 33 PAs last year good for a 106 OPS+.  At AAA he hit 298/371/498/870 in 338 PAs.

Cowser in the majors slashed 115/286/148/433 in 78 PAs (and frankly looked bad doing it.)  At AAA he hit 300/417//520/937 in 399 PAs.

And just as a point of comparison.

Jordan Westburg in the bigs slashed 260/311/404/715 in 228 PAs after putting up a 295/372/567/936 in AAA in 301 PAs.

Immediately you see the difficulty in making accurate predictions.  Kjerstad and Cowser performed similarly in AAA last season, but whereas Kjerstad performed competently if unspectacular, Cowser was atrocious.

By default, Cowser will be better next year, but is this somebody you want to pencil in for 5-600 abs next year?  Kjerstad was better, but he still had a sub 300 OBP, and it wasn't many at bats.  Do you feel great handing him 5-600 abs?

There are plenty of people who will say we can't depend on Hays or Santander as "every day" players because of injury concerns, or Tyler Wells can't be in the rotation because you can't "count" on him for 30 starts.  But really, can we count on either of these rookies in an every day role?  Not by those same standards.

For the record, I think Kjerstad's slash line last year is a decent initial projection for next year.  We could live with that, but it would certainly cost us ball games as opposed to Santander.

Cowser's an enigma to me.  He performed the best in AAA and the worst in MLB.    And again, he looked real bad doing it.  I could see him being good, but I could also see him just flaming out.

So what do you think they would do with 5-600 abs?  Obviously, this is going to deeply inform your opinion on the expendability of Hays/Santander.

 

[RZNJ]

If Kjerstad gets regular AB’s I’d expect 20+ homers, a .250 or better average, and an OPS north of .750.   I think Westburg should be similar.   Cowser is tough to figure.  I think the upside is high but the floor is lower than the other two.  I’m also more confident that Kjerstad will have opportunity.   

[Sports Guy]

I expect them to all be 2+ WaR MLers

[Just Regular]

Its an interesting subject.    I think its possible the maximizing long-term play is to play the kids frequently in April-May even if their expected performance then is a little bit worse.

The hope being the Sigbot deems the '24 Orioles a strong enough team not to jeopardize its tournament qualification if it plays the kids.

In 2023, Hays-Santander were basically at the height of their life mastery of the game of baseball.     They both went 3-for-11 (Adley and Mullins combined for 1-for-24) in the tournament.     Anybody can be Rick Dempsey or Adley Rutschman any given postseason.

If BAL is strong enough to gameplan only for how good will its guys be in October 2024, I think it can be projected one of the kids will be the superior option by then.     The 1B Santander possibility also means the 2020/2021 elite 1st round Bats inheritance could be "only" Ryan O'Hearn's allocation as well.

For LF/RF/1B/DH, even without a trade it could be

Tier 1 - Hays, Cowser, Santander, Kjerstad

Tier 1.25 - Mountcastle

Tier 2 - O'Hearn

I'll pause tiering Aaron Hicks because having revived his career, if he wants closer to a full-time job, he should go to another team.

[oriole]

I think having some depth helps a lot. It means that when you’ve got a rookie putting up 2023 Cowser MLB numbers, you have someone else in the pipeline you can bring up and replace them with and maybe even someone behind that person. 
 

I think trading Santander makes the most sense, but even if he stayed on the team, there is room at DH for a lot of at bats. I don’t think it’s a given that anyone is traded. 

[Moose Milligan]

Rookies gotta play. Some will do great, some will be average and others won’t turn out to be contributors. 
 

But they gotta play. 

[Frobby]

I leave it to Elias and Mejdal to make reasonable estimates for this.  The samples for most of these guys were miniscule.   

[Jammer7]

That’s the thing, right? Which direction do they go with the prospects? If they trade Santander, Mullins and/or Hays, and replace them with Kjerstad, Cowser and whomever, are they still playoff contenders? Or are they willing to take a step back to take steps forward in developing their young major league talent? Will they supplement with place/holders, or will they go get an impact bat, a legit vet starter and a closer type? If they trade the prospects, is this sustainable?

I trust Elias and staff to make those decisions, but to make any predictions is pretty tough.

[waroriole]

I wonder if Cowser and Kjerstad will both get opportunities at the same time. They’re both LH OF, along with Mullins. Maybe they both are on the team if OHearn is gone. If they each get 500ish ABs, I’d expect something similar to below:

Cowser: .270/.350/.450 with potential for the OBP to be higher. 
 

Kjerstad: .250/.310/.440 with much better power potential. 
 

I hope they let them both play early and see what we have. 

[Malike]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

I wonder if Cowser and Kjerstad will both get opportunities at the same time. They’re both LH OF, along with Mullins. Maybe they both are on the team if OHearn is gone. If they each get 500ish ABs, I’d expect something similar to below:

Cowser: .270/.350/.450 with potential for the OBP to be higher. 
 

Kjerstad: .250/.310/.440 with much better power potential. 
 

I hope they let them both play early and see what we have. 

You think Cowser will OPS .800 and out slug Kjerstad?

[RVAbird2]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

You think Cowser will OPS .800 and out slug Kjerstad?

Is that so hard to believe? Cowser posted better ISO, SLG, OPS and wOBA than Kjerstad this year at Norfolk.

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Malike said:

You think Cowser will OPS .800 and out slug Kjerstad?

It’s not crazy.  Despite his poor ML debut Cowser outslugged Kjerstad in AAA.   Cowser had 18 homers in 85 games there.

[Frobby]

I think people are way too influenced by Cowser’s poor start.   I wouldn’t predict him for .800 in his rookie campaign, but .750ish with a .325+ OBP would be a solid first full year.  

[Roll Tide]

17 hours ago, Pickles said:

So a lot of discussion in several threads about the possibility of trading Santander and/or Hays to open playing time for one or both of Kjerstad and/or Cowser.  With Hays and Santander we have a pretty solid grasp on what their value/production is, but their replacements' production could run the entire spectrum it seems.  A big part of the equation is simply unknownable and requires one to project.

So that's the question: What kind of production do you think the rookies actually provide in 2024?

First a little perspective.

Kjerstad slashed 233/281/467/748 in 33 PAs last year good for a 106 OPS+.  At AAA he hit 298/371/498/870 in 338 PAs.

Cowser in the majors slashed 115/286/148/433 in 78 PAs (and frankly looked bad doing it.)  At AAA he hit 300/417//520/937 in 399 PAs.

And just as a point of comparison.

Jordan Westburg in the bigs slashed 260/311/404/715 in 228 PAs after putting up a 295/372/567/936 in AAA in 301 PAs.

Immediately you see the difficulty in making accurate predictions.  Kjerstad and Cowser performed similarly in AAA last season, but whereas Kjerstad performed competently if unspectacular, Cowser was atrocious.

By default, Cowser will be better next year, but is this somebody you want to pencil in for 5-600 abs next year?  Kjerstad was better, but he still had a sub 300 OBP, and it wasn't many at bats.  Do you feel great handing him 5-600 abs?

There are plenty of people who will say we can't depend on Hays or Santander as "every day" players because of injury concerns, or Tyler Wells can't be in the rotation because you can't "count" on him for 30 starts.  But really, can we count on either of these rookies in an every day role?  Not by those same standards.

For the record, I think Kjerstad's slash line last year is a decent initial projection for next year.  We could live with that, but it would certainly cost us ball games as opposed to Santander.

Cowser's an enigma to me.  He performed the best in AAA and the worst in MLB.    And again, he looked real bad doing it.  I could see him being good, but I could also see him just flaming out.

So what do you think they would do with 5-600 abs?  Obviously, this is going to deeply inform your opinion on the expendability of Hays/Santander.

 

So you will never know unless you let them play. Honestly, most sports performance is heavily affected by confidence. They have the saying fake it until you make it. When young players struggle initially it’s hard to fake. Honestly, Cowser is a guy who could become a AAAA player. But, he needs the opportunity to get adjusted. It’s unrealistic to think all of these guys are going to hit. Even in a stacked well run system you are still going to plenty of guys that either fall short of expectations. Hopefully Elias has made up his mind and is prepared to move the guys he has determined won’t. Obviously in time to get considerable return. Even though Cowser struggled he should still have considerable value. Just not as a CF! 

[Say O!]

Next year presents an interesting litmus test on how much Os analytics (and in turn FO and Hyde) continue to prefer hitter handedness (L-R, R-L) matchup style baseball.  The Rays have played this way for years it seems, so is this the small moneyball advantages the Os will again favor?  Has implications for guys like Hays (vs rookie OFs), Ortiz, Mountcastle/OHearn, etc.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Say O!