What Kind of Production Do You Think The Rookies Actually Produce in 2024?

[wildcard]

I think Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday  have a better opportunity to go through their rookie adjustment period first.     Frazier will probably not be resigned.   2B and 3B seem like positions  that the O's can improve their offensive and defensive production.

Elias/Hyde do not seem to want to do too many rookie adjustment periods at the same time.   This approach is to keep the O's competitive while the are contending.

Therefore limiting the rookies in the outfield may happen until the 2B/3B candidate establish themselves in the majors is my guess. Especially while the O's have three established outfielders on the roster.   That does not mean that rookies could not be used to support those players as needed.

Edited October 28, 2023 by wildcard

[waroriole]

11 hours ago, Malike said:

You think Cowser will OPS .800 and out slug Kjerstad?

I had Kjerstad with the higher ISO but Cowser has outhit him everywhere. 

[Malike]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I expect them to all be 2+ WaR MLers

In 2024? I'd take the under for sure. 

[Malike]

53 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I had Kjerstad with the higher ISO but Cowser has outhit him everywhere. 

Makes sense, I don't see either of them near .800 OPS next year, I think it's a lot harder to do than we all appreciate.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Malike said:

Makes sense, I don't see either of them near .800 OPS next year, I think it's a lot harder to do than we all appreciate.

Could happen, but they don’t need to do that well to be successful rookies.  

[Malike]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Could happen, but they don’t need to do that well to be successful rookies.  

Well, sure, it could, but if I were a betting man, I'd wager an awful lot of money that it doesn't. I agree that they don't need to be .800 OPS guys to be successful, I also believe some of them are going to bust, another thing I'd bet an awful lot of money on, again, if I were a betting man.

[Jagwar]

I think Cowser is going to figure it out. He definitely looked a little deer-headlights in his debut, but I'm wondering if that changes with an opening day call up. Watching his minor league videos, he has a smooth swing and easy power gap to gap. Give him consistent ABs and playing time and I think he is going to do well, like 800+ OPS 

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I think Cowser is going to figure it out. He definitely looked a little deer-headlights in his debut, but I'm wondering if that changes with an opening day call up. Watching his minor league videos, he has a smooth swing and easy power gap to gap. Give him consistent ABs and playing time and I think he is going to do well, like 800+ OPS 

 I don't see consistent ABs or consistent playing time for Cowser or Kjerstad to begin 2024.   More likely they are replacement for McKenna and Hicks.    Their opportunities come when giving guys rest and when injuries or non performance happens.

Cowser and Kjerstad are going to have to standout in some way before they get consistent playing time IMO.  The O's have a team that won 101 games.   I don't think Hyde/Elias just throws the players that made that happen away.   Cowser and Kjerstad supplement the regulars that are already on the team is my guess.

Look at what happen with O'Hearn last year.  He was a bench player until his performance showed he needed to be in the lineup more regularly.

Edited October 29, 2023 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 I don't see consistent ABs or consistent playing time for Cowser or Kjerstad to begin 2024.   More likely they are replacement for McKenna and Hicks.    Their opportunities come when giving guys rest and when injuries or non performance happens.

Cowser and Kjerstad are going to have to standout in some way before they get consistent playing time IMO.  The O's have a team that won 101 games.   I don't think Hyde/Elias just throws the players that made that happen away.   Cowser and Kjerstad supplement the regulars that are already on the team is my guess.

Look at what happen with O'Hearn last year.  He was a bench player until his performance showed he needed to be in the lineup more regularly.

You might be right.  On the other hand, Cowser and Kjerstad are not comparable to a waiver claim like O’Hearn.   Do you think both Cowser and Kjerstad start the season in Norfolk or on the bench in Baltimore?  No way do I see both starting the season on the bench.   

[Just Regular]

It looks like Clay Davenport's site has published some of its six-year projections from 2024.     The next few years WAR in notable OF cases.

Aaron Hicks: 0.3, 0.2, -0.2

Anthony Santander: 3.3, 3.1, 3.1

Austin Hays: 1.8, 1.4, 1.3

Cedric Mullins: 3.7, 3.5, 3.0

Heston Kjerstad: 1.7, 1.3, 1.3     -     an interesting shape.    Myocarditis perhaps pushing things to over before they have really begun.

Colton Cowser: 1.5, 2.7, 2.6

The cornerstones 2024-2029 they still see Adley with about a 6-5 WAR edge on Gunnar most years.

Top Prospects - it sees peak WAR's roughly around Holliday 5, Basallo 4, Mayo 3.    I think 5 is probably near to top of the scale a Player can earn without rendering any MLB performance.     Junior Caminero peaks around 3.5.

Edited October 29, 2023 by Just Regular

[Jagwar]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

 I don't see consistent ABs or consistent playing time for Cowser or Kjerstad to begin 2024.   More likely they are replacement for McKenna and Hicks.    Their opportunities come when giving guys rest and when injuries or non performance happens.

Cowser and Kjerstad are going to have to standout in some way before they get consistent playing time IMO.  The O's have a team that won 101 games.   I don't think Hyde/Elias just throws the players that made that happen away.   Cowser and Kjerstad supplement the regulars that are already on the team is my guess.

Look at what happen with O'Hearn last year.  He was a bench player until his performance showed he needed to be in the lineup more regularly.

The way it happens IMO is if 1) Hicks and McKenna are gone, and 2) Santander and Coswer each serve as DH a good number of games.

[Aristotelian]

I have absolutely no expectation. They could be Cowser '23/Stowers '22 or Carter '23/playoffs. Most likely somewhere in between but I couldn't say with any confidence which will be better. Only one way to find out. 

I think Westburg 's versatility gives us some flexibility but we need to get rid of one of Hays/Santander to open opportunities. However, I hate to lose Hays' defense (especially with Mullins looking off), or Santander's bat (he and Gunnar were basically our whole offense in the playoffs). We could let Hivks walk but he gave us great value.

[Malike]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

 I don't see consistent ABs or consistent playing time for Cowser or Kjerstad to begin 2024.   More likely they are replacement for McKenna and Hicks.    Their opportunities come when giving guys rest and when injuries or non performance happens.

Cowser and Kjerstad are going to have to standout in some way before they get consistent playing time IMO.  The O's have a team that won 101 games.   I don't think Hyde/Elias just throws the players that made that happen away.   Cowser and Kjerstad supplement the regulars that are already on the team is my guess.

Look at what happen with O'Hearn last year.  He was a bench player until his performance showed he needed to be in the lineup more regularly.

He then became a pretty strict platoon player who faded badly at the end of the season. I wouldn't expect '24 to resemble '23.

[Sports Guy]

On 10/28/2023 at 1:05 PM, Malike said:

In 2024? I'd take the under for sure. 

It depends on how the bet is structured. 

That said, they are all talented enough to where they should be around Austin Hays 2023 or better IMO.  They are all more talented than he is, so I expect them to be better, even in their first year.

Now, that said, we will see how much time some of them get, if they get hurt or don't develop (i agree with you that someone(s) are likely to fail).

[Hank Scorpio]

I think what we'll see from Cowser (provided he's still here), is sort of what we saw from Gunnar in May/June - maybe not results-wise, more relative to aggression on borderline pitches. Once Gunnar realized he could do some damage even if pitches weren't middle/middle, he took off a bit. I expect Cowser will have that same enlightenment with time.