Dean Kremer: Underrated? Overrated?

[Frobby]

Seems like opinions vary wildly on Dean Kremer.  Some think he’s underrated, some think he’s overrated.  

Let’s look at the last two seasons.

2022: 22 G, 125.1 IP, 3.23 ERA, 4.49 xERA, 3.80 FIP, 121 ERA+, 1.253 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9.

2023: 32 G, 172.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 4.96 xERA 4.51 FIP, 100 ERA+. 1.309 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.4 K/BB.

Obviously, these numbers show that (1) Kremer pitched worse in 2023 than he did in 2022, and (2) in both seasons, he outperformed his “expected” numbers by a significant margin.  

At the same time, the actual results are pretty good.   Strikeouts were up significantly, which is a positive.  And, it’s notable that Kremer had a strong second half: 15 starts, 81.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9.

While it’s possible Kremer could backslide towards his xERA/FIP numbers, I’m optimistic that he won’t.  For me he’s a guy who is still learning and figuring things out.  He’s intelligent and very competitive.   He’s got a full 172 inning season under his belt now.  

Mark me down as predicting that Kremer pitches to a 2024 ERA of 3.87, matching his 2nd half FIP from 2023.


 

[RZNJ]

I think he’s fine as a #4 or #5 starter but has a chance to be better as he moves into his age 28 season.  His numbers are poor on his breaking ball and changeup so that’s where potential improvements could come from.

Underrated by most.

Edited November 6, 2023 by RZNJ

[interloper]

I think he's rated, haha. 

I like Dean but he does weird things like stick with pitches too long when they're clearly not working during an outing. Or there will be a pitch that is clearly working - the fastball is a good example - but he doesn't read the bats and throws a bad cutter instead (or whatever). 

I dunno. The overall package is decent, but he can be frustrating and mercurial at times. He's prone to implosions a bit more often than you want, and his peripherals are kind of weak. All that said, he was pretty solid last year. 

I would be looking to package him in a trade because personally I don't see him improving beyond what we saw in 2023, and it makes sense to deal him after a career year. Also, I think we can upgrade on his spot in the rotation. 

[StottyByNature]

I'll go with "rated".  He's a great guy to have for the long haul of the season because he takes the ball and will give you what he's got.  What he's got is pretty good but when he's even a bit off it can get ugly.  He is not someone you want as a playoff starter.  I'm still glad we have him.

[LookinUp]

I think the case for Kremer is that he's been pretty darn good while he was pretty inexperienced.

He's solidly in the middle of his career now. Does he keep getting better? Can he develop better secondaries, command/control?

Or is he already on the downside stuff-wise? 

I tend to think that he can be useful for us for multiple years, even if it's through the bullpen. I'm banking on similar pretty good performance over a bunch of innings but hoping for continued growth. 

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I'm not trading him unless it's part of a really good package.

[Sports Guy]

Depends who is talking about him.

Hes fine. There is nothing wrong with having him in the rotation but they should also look to get better than him because that’s the area they can add to and see real improvement and they have the resources to do it and our pitching in the minors is questionable.

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Seems like opinions vary wildly on Dean Kremer.  Some think he’s underrated, some think he’s overrated.  

Let’s look at the last two seasons.

2022: 22 G, 125.1 IP, 3.23 ERA, 4.49 xERA, 3.80 FIP, 121 ERA+, 1.253 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9.

2023: 32 G, 172.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 4.96 xERA 4.51 FIP, 100 ERA+. 1.309 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.4 K/BB.

Obviously, these numbers show that (1) Kremer pitched worse in 2023 than he did in 2022, and (2) in both seasons, he outperformed his “expected” numbers by a significant margin.  

At the same time, the actual results are pretty good.   Strikeouts were up significantly, which is a positive.  And, it’s notable that Kremer had a strong second half: 15 starts, 81.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.187 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9.

While it’s possible Kremer could backslide towards his xERA/FIP numbers, I’m optimistic that he won’t.  For me he’s a guy who is still learning and figuring things out.  He’s intelligent and very competitive.   He’s got a full 172 inning season under his belt now.  

Mark me down as predicting that Kremer pitches to a 2024 ERA of 3.87, matching his 2nd half FIP from 2023.


 

I think Kremer is seriously undervalued here at the OH. I have him as a 3/4 type. I expect around a 3.75 and hope he doesn't have the long struggle to start the season as he did in 2023

[Sports Guy]

Kremer is a good example of a guy that the wall makes it easier to throw out there.

Hes a guy you would rather have out there than pay 7-12M for Gibson like guys. 
 

But again, I think we should be aiming higher, both in terms of talent and on field production.

[RZNJ]

Curiously, he gave up 18 homers in 19 games at home and 9 in 13 games on the road.  Also, a lower ERA (3.73) on the road.

[btdart20]

I'd say he's underrated.  He feels like what Lyles/Gibson has been.  A guy who can give solid IPs.  Which has value to any team.  But he's more a plus #4 guy for a contender.  

For the O's context, we have two #4 guys (Kremer/Means).  We could use a #3+ guy to add to Grayson/Bradish.  Wells has been that when he's strong but...  

[Billy F-Face3]

I think he is what he is.

[Billy F-Face3]

It all depends on who you are talking with and their opinions on him whether Kremer can ve considered over rated or under rated. Some people here under rate him alot. Some people here over rate him a little. 

He just is what he is. A decent #5 to average #4 starter who will give you 5 innings and a chance to win. 

[Sports Guy]

I’m not sure what the average ERA was for 4th and 5th starters this year but I’m guessing Kremer was better than that. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure what the average ERA was for 4th and 5th starters this year but I’m guessing Kremer was better than that. 

Almost by definition, since his ERA+ was 100.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Almost by definition, since his ERA+ was 100.  

What was the average ERA+ for 4th and 5th starters this year?  Any site tracking that?