Cease vs everyone else

[owknows]

24 minutes ago, brooooksy said:

My whole post is about that strategy, and how because it was used, it’s not okay with me that they continue to play cheap and not make any splashes via trade or FA to fill obvious holes. 

Many armchair GM's have various opinions as to what they are and are not "OK" with.

Thankfully this is a matter of complete indifference to the Orioles front office.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

Many armchair GM's have various opinions as to what they are and are not "OK" with.

Thankfully this is a matter of complete indifference to the Orioles front office.

Thank you for sharing your perspective about how you already agree with whatever the front office will do, it’s enlightening

[ChosenOne21]

8 hours ago, larrytt said:

There’s lots of talk and rumors about trading away top prospects to bring Dylan Cease, an “ace,” to Baltimore. Yes, he was great for one year in 2022 (2.20 ERA, his only year as an “ace”) and also good in 2021 (3.91, first full season, not ace level), but in 2023 he had a 4.58 ERA with an atrocious 1.418 WHIP. Many consider his 2022 somewhat of a fluke since he led the league in walks but somehow got away with it for one year. (He was third in MLB in ERA, but only 20th in WHIP at 1.11.) So, I’m looking at the Orioles current potential starters. There are health and stamina concerns with Means and Wells, which means we need depth, but if healthy, you want to start your five best starters. Looking mostly at ERA, here are my rough rankings:

1.      Kyle Bradish 2.83

2.      Grayson Rodriguez 4.35 (2.58 in second half)

3.      John Means 2.66 in 23.2 innings (3.62 in 2021, missed 2022 with Tommy John surgery)

4.      Dean Kremer 4.12 (3.23 in 2022) 

5.      Tyler Wells 3.64 (4.25 in 2022)

6.      Dylan Cease 4.58 (4.30 first half, 4.96 second half)

Maybe Cease will recover from his 2023 pitching woes, but until he shows his previous form, he seems to have pitched himself out of anything close to ace-hood and is more like a #5 starter, and a #6 starter on a contending team. So . . . can someone explain to me as if I were a child why he’s still regularly referred to as an “ace” or why you believe he should start ahead of any of the other five (other than that if we trade for him, we are obligated to do so)? But we do need to get another dependable starter, but more like a #3 inning-eater type.

I remember a few months ago calculating what Cease's ERA would have been if he had the Orioles' defense behind him and it was something like 4.01-4.07. So it's not unreasonable to say our pitchers would have been about half a run of ERA worse if they pitched for the Sox. Let's compare apples to apples here.

I would 100% take Kyle Bradish over Dylan Cease. I think it is extremely likely Grayson Rodriguez has a better season than him as well. After that, I think I want Cease more than the other pitchers you mentioned. Means is a pretty huge question mark coming back from TJ and never really making it through a whole year healthy, while Cease has been the picture of health. I think Kremer's 3.23 was a fluke and he's likely a 4.00-4.25 ERA or so pitcher going forward. I think Cease has more upside. Wells hasn't made it through a full year in the rotation yet, and while I think there's a good chance he pitches better than Cease while he's there, I'm not sure he can keep it up for a full year.

You'd have to be wearing orange-colored glasses to pick any of those pitchers over Cease except for Bradish and Rodriguez.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, brooooksy said:

We just won 101 games, why would we want to go field a prospect heavy team? 
 

some perspective on why anyone besides John Angelos should care about care about keeping the payroll low is needed

We just won 101 games WITH an emerging-prospect-heavy team.

And to the degree that we have drafted well and created a farm with quite a few of the top prospects in baseball, I should think it obvious that we should reap the benefits of that strategy.

As for why Angelos or ANY business owner should care about keeping payroll low, particularly if success can be achieved while doing so...  I shouldn't have to explain that baseball is an entertainment business. Like any other business, it is not an altruistic enterprise.

It exists to make money, while providing an enjoyable fan experience. Winning is the enjoyable fan experience.

To the degree that a business can provide a product that fans enjoy (in this case winning baseball) while keeping costs low, maintaining or even improving the fiscal the health of the franchise, and creating a sustainable performance into the future without being saddled by astronomical contracts which often fail to live up to expectation (Cough cough Chris Davis cough)... That is what they ought do.

Money does not buy winning baseball. Ceratinly not in perpetuity. Sound foundational organization, a solid farm, a pipeline filled with solid players (which will likely be acquired by trading some of our own emerging top tier talent as they reach their arb years) is how that is achieved. Particularly in a small market team.

And that is what seems to be emerging as a strategy here.

Angelos is not a very likeable person... he seems to be quite socially awkward, somewhat narcissistic, kinda needy...  But his baseball strategy, starting with the hire of Elias, and into his general aversion to high priced free agency has been superb.

I picture the majority of those who continuously bleat about "cheap ass owners" not spending enough money for their liking to be the people most likely to be lined up outside the cheap "payday loan" offices on Wednesday afternoons. Shortsighted.

 

 

[Ripken]

Maybe @Tony-OH should just make a new Forum.  Orioles Talk, Minors, Orioles History, Cease, MLB, Game Threads, etc.

[Greg Pappas]

I want to add that Cease is 10 days older than Kremer, with both just recently turning 28.  

[Greg Pappas]

Not a single Cease and desist pun? Hmmmm....

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, owknows said:

Graduating talent that had been working it's way through the MiLB system.

And reducing the number of stopgap vets.

(although you and I would probably agree that Frazier was unnecessary and potentially counterproductive)

So promoting guys that have nothing left to prove is an effort to contend?

Lots of players made their debut for the As last year..was that an effort to contend?

 

[wildbillhiccup]

I'm disappointed that this thread wasn't titled - Dylan 2: Electric Boogaloo.

 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

I'm half tempted to spend some time this weekend creating a "Signed the Lease, Now Trade for Cease!" graphic tee and putting them on Etsy. 

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

So promoting guys that have nothing left to prove is an effort to contend?

Lots of players made their debut for the As last year..was that an effort to contend?

 

We spent years tanking and rebuilding. Toward the end of that process we had players ready to reach the majors which were arguably kept back for service time reasons. And their debuts were painfully held at bay to field players with names like Odor, Arauz, Aguilar, Owings, and Phillips.

It was clear at that time that we were not attempting to contend.

That was 2022.

In 2023 the service time gaming somewhat subsided... some of the better MLB ready prospects began to take the field, and the team made a legitimate effort to contend. They essentially said so themselves.

You, If I recall correctly were loudly pounding the table seeking an end to the service time gaming of the better players now in the mix, so I find it a bit of mystery that you've already forgotten this transition.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just want the low effort puns to stop.

How do you know they are "low effort?"

[Aristotelian]

How many ways can we break down the Cease topic?

Cease vs current starters

Cease vs other trade targets

Cease vs other FA's

Cease 2023 vs Cease track record

Cease trade proposals

Cease trade rumors

White Sox message board opinions of Cease

White Sox message board opinions of O's prospects

Cease extension

Metathread for reflecting on Cease threads

What else are we missing? There should be at least 20 active Cease threads.

[btdart20]

“When you cease to dream, you cease to live.” - Malcolm Forbes

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” - Aldous Huxley 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, owknows said:

We spent years tanking and rebuilding. Toward the end of that process we had players ready to reach the majors which were arguably kept back for service time reasons. And their debuts were painfully held at bay to field players with names like Odor, Arauz, Aguilar, Owings, and Phillips.

It was clear at that time that we were not attempting to contend.

That was 2022.

In 2023 the service time gaming somewhat subsided... some of the better MLB ready prospects began to take the field, and the team made a legitimate effort to contend. They essentially said so themselves.

You, If I recall correctly were loudly pounding the table seeking an end to the service time gaming of the better players now in the mix, so I find it a bit of mystery that you've already forgotten this transition.

Don’t hurt yourself reaching.

Promoting of age players that have crushed the minors is just what every team does. Saying that was some sign that they were serious about contending is completely over the top Imo. That’s just, the way things are done.

The Os didnt do anything last offseason to be serious about contending. Things worked out to become contenders and that’s great.

It’s like saying the team has to be awful for 4 years to become good again.  Just a bad argument all around.