Cease vs everyone else

[oriolediehard]

14 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

I vote no to all choices.  Why can't the O's move on from Cease and try to trade or sign someone else.  Cease pitched not good last year and we would regret getting Cease if we got him.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

I vote no to all choices.  Why can't the O's move on from Cease and try to trade or sign someone else.  Cease pitched not good last year and we would regret getting Cease if we got him.

I find this to be funny.

Elias is consistently lauded by Os fans for how good he is at recognizing talent, developing talent, etc…

Yet in this case, when he is going after a guy he clearly wants and values, everyone pours to him not being as good as he was in 2022.

Do you trust Elias or not? Do you think Elias is engaging the WS to acquire Cease because he thinks he will get him here and he will struggle?

Or do you think he wants him because he sees that they can tweak him for him to become a much better pitcher?

Im assuming they think they can make him better.

[Aristotelian]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

B is the only one I'd consider, but I would want a low level starter upside pitching prospect added by the White Sox if they are getting three prospects of that caliber. 

I think they would be more inclined to add expendable MLB assets. Do they have any we would be interested in? Soroka? 

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, interloper said:

I feel like you only get one from a group of Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad, or Ortiz. One of those guys headlines. And if they don't like it, they can shove it honestly. 

Ortiz and Cowser, I’m ok with.  

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I find this to be funny.

Elias is consistently lauded by Os fans for how good he is at recognizing talent, developing talent, etc…

Yet in this case, when he is going after a guy he clearly wants and values, everyone pours to him not being as good as he was in 2022.

Do you trust Elias or not? Do you think Elias is engaging the WS to acquire Cease because he thinks he will get him here and he will struggle?

Or do you think he wants him because he sees that they can tweak him for him to become a much better pitcher?

Im assuming they think they can make him better.

I mean, Flaherty came here and struggled. Much like prospects busting, trades do too. I assume they did the same due diligence on Flaherty that they are with Cease.

Cease is overrated here, mostly because he's a strikeout pitcher. He walks the yard, gives up too many hits, and is close to a 5 and dive guy thanks to all of his warts. If you think the statcast data was a blip in the matrix and he's going to be a true number 2 starter that's one thing, but he has stuff trending in the wrong direction for several years in a row now. 

I get he's like the "best" available arm for a trade, or the most established at least, but he's overrated on here.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, ChicagoTerp said:

I think I would do this. Only because I feel pretty good that at least one of Holliday, Ortiz, or Norby will hit.

The more I read the tea leaves the more I think the plan is:

3B Westburg

SS Henderson

2B Holliday 

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I mean, Flaherty came here and struggled. Much like prospects busting, trades do too. I assume they did the same due diligence on Flaherty that they are with Cease.

Cease is overrated here, mostly because he's a strikeout pitcher. He walks the yard, gives up too many hits, and is close to a 5 and dive guy thanks to all of his warts. If you think the statcast data was a blip in the matrix and he's going to be a true number 2 starter that's one thing, but he has stuff trending in the wrong direction for several years in a row now. 

I get he's like the "best" available arm for a trade, or the most established at least, but he's overrated on here.

The Flaherty is a really bad one. 
 

I think it’s at the point where Cease is underrated here…WS fans overrate him and the Os fans are underrating him.

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Flaherty is a really bad one. 
 

I think it’s at the point where Cease is underrated here…WS fans overrate him and the Os fans are underrating him.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'd help the team but he's not close to an Ace or a true number 1. I would not be in the least bit surprised if any of our top 3 starters right now put up similar seasons in '24 to Cease.

[sportsfan8703]

Westburg and Cowser is the best package of the four choices for us to deal. We can’t afford to trade both Cowser and Kjerstad with all of OF hitting FA soon. If everyone believes in Joey Ortiz so much then Westburg can go. They’re both RH SS/2B/3B options. Maybe we negotiate them down to McDermott as the pitching going back, but really Povich is our only realistic MLB SP prospect above A ball. 

Also, Cease is worth trading Westburg and Cowser for. He’s got a nasty slider and was able to induce more swords than even Spencer Strider. That’s the guy I want on the bump in game 1 of 3/5/7. With Bradish and GR. I trust our coaching staff to get him back to the 2022 version.

The trade hurts. Of course, but our future IF is Mayo, Gunnar, and Holliday. With Ortiz as UTIL.  Our future OF is Kjerstad, Beavers, EBJ. With some Hilliard and Fabian/Wagner/Horvath sprinkled in. 

 

[Warehouse]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

The thing I’m not sure of is how much he values Cowser and/or Kjerstad.  Are they really off the table or is that a negotiating tactic where he takes something away and pretends to give in later on to consummate the deal.

I don't think Cowser and Kjerstad are off the table. I think it's just as likely that the non-headline pieces are holding up the deal. Elias has been consistent that only 2 or 3 players (guessing Holliday, Mayo, Basallo) are untouchable and beyond that it comes to down to do a cold-blooded value exchange comparison (i.e., SigBot trade simulator calculations). See his post-deadline press conference from last year.

Mike Elias press conference on August 2, 2023

Roch Kubatko: Mike, you were linked to a lot of different pitchers today and engaged in a lot of different talks. Was Flaherty a primary target for you all along? Were you ever close to something and then kind of circled back?

Mike Elias:  Yeah, we got very close to some things. We took some very big swings and some things came close. 

Cordell Woodland: Mike, like Roch said, we heard that you guys were attached to a lot of different names in the open market. We know you’ve got a plethora of prospects in your system. You said you guys were taking big swings – when you think back to some of those conversations were you noticing that people were maybe asking for certain prospects that you didn’t feel like you wanted to give up at that time?

Mike Elias: Oh yeah. Look, the top of our prospect list is as good as is out there. We’ve got 8 or 9 or 10 top 100 guys right now depending on how you look at it or put the different lists together. It took a long time to get people off that part of the list. I think people look at our system and we’ve got some depth and people playing the same positions. People wanted to tap into that. We were willing to do it in certain scenarios. And like I said, we had some really big stuff get down the pike but I can only control our side of it and people are going to go in directions that they’re going to go.  

So, I think we were prepared to deploy every corner of our farm system within reason to make acquisitions and we just make a calculated value exchange of what we’re losing and the players that we’re getting back, with the appropriate sort of emphasis on the near term for 2023 or 2024 or depending on the amount of control those guys had. We were organized, we were ready to tap into [that].

We might have a couple of players, and I won’t name them, that we wouldn’t trade for anyone in baseball. But other than that, you’ve got to be prepared to look up and down.

A lot of teams really fixated on a lot of players that we just didn’t feel were appropriate to go in those deals and that’s part of why this went to the last minute for us.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Who here is willing to make these trades for Cease,

A) Cowser, Kjerstad, and Povich 

B) Westburg, Cowser/Kjerstad, and Povich

C) Mayo, Povich, and Ortiz

D) Basallo, Povich, and Ortiz

If I have to do one then I’m doing B. 

Absolutely none of them. Y’all going crazy with this Cease worship. 

[waroriole]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I find this to be funny.

Elias is consistently lauded by Os fans for how good he is at recognizing talent, developing talent, etc…

Yet in this case, when he is going after a guy he clearly wants and values, everyone pours to him not being as good as he was in 2022.

Do you trust Elias or not? Do you think Elias is engaging the WS to acquire Cease because he thinks he will get him here and he will struggle?

Or do you think he wants him because he sees that they can tweak him for him to become a much better pitcher?

Im assuming they think they can make him better.

It seems more likely that Cease is the best he can get because the owner will not spend in FA. Do you think he’d be pursuing Cease if the owner was willing to spend enough to be a Top 20 payroll?

[SoxFan3344]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Absolutely none of them. Y’all going crazy with this Cease worship. 

Controllable starting pitching is expensive 

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, SoxFan3344 said:

Controllable starting pitching is expensive 

Two years ain’t that controllable. Considering he’s been mid at best outside of one outlier season, you can keep him. 

[SoxFan3344]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Two years ain’t that controllable. Considering he’s been mid at best outside of one outlier season, you can keep him. 

Two years for a team that’s currently in its contention window, at a measly $8 mil per season, with a ceiling of a Cy Young candidate, 32+ starts in each of the last 3 season is a bargain. If Shoto Imanaga is gonna net $80-$100 mil, Dylan Cease is a bargain and is controllable, whether you want to believe it or not is on you

Edited January 5 by SoxFan3344