Cease vs everyone else

[Rustbelt]

15 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Hopefully we can get this to 400 pages or so by Opening Day. 

Why stop at 400?  Considering how this thread has turned into Burnes vs Cease in statistical anlaysis instead of actual results, we can carry this on until they retire. 

Let's add pitch efficiency and pitch/innings to discussion.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I'm not fluent enough with the data to agree or disagree with those conclusions unfortunately. Generally speaking, I believe this data and xERA dials into more detail and pitcher controlled variables than FIP, but I'm definitely no expert on either.

I agree that an unmotivated, poor defense would take its toll on any SPs topline numbers though, versus a well managed team like the Brewers. But I still see enough significant differences between their statcast data and their overall track record to feel that even with both having a better defense and luck, that Burnes still has a significantly higher chance to outperform Cease with a much safer floor. TBD of course.

Well sure..Burnes is the better pitcher. No one is questioning that.

I’m just saying that if Cease were in a better situation last year, the numbers could easily look a lot closer.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  Cease was unlucky.  But his BB% didn't help him any either.  Cease is poised for a bounceback/regression to mean season.

For Burnes, I look at his changed slider/sweeper similar to Bradish adding a sinker at the end of 2022.  Quality pitches and the tunnelling effect build on each other.  Second half Burnes is what I'm expecting.

You’re expecting a sub 3 ERA season in 2024?

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You’re expecting a sub 3 ERA season in 2024?

Yes.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You’re expecting a sub 3 ERA season in 2024?

I’m not expecting it, but if sure wouldn’t shock me.   ZiPS has his median projection at 3.32, with his 80th percentile projection at 2.76.   So, I’d guesstimate ZiPS thinks he’s got about a 1 in 3 chance of posting an ERA under 3.   

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not expecting it, but if sure wouldn’t shock me.   ZiPS has his median projection at 3.32, with his 80th percentile projection at 2.76.   So, I’d guesstimate ZiPS thinks he’s got about a 1 in 3 chance of posting an ERA under 3.   

Yep..that’s how I feel.  Not an expectation but definitely a possibility.

He will also be seeing a jump up in competition leaving the NLC to come to the ALE.

Edited February 5 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

There's other pitchers that have the same amount of club control remaining as Cease.  

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2026/starting-pitcher/

So we have Means and Burnes as FA after this season.  We're good right now.  My only concern is Means probably won't still be going come playoff time.  He's got to have some sort of innings limit after pitching a combined 31.2 IP the last two seasons.  What's a realistic number innings number for him?  125?  

A lot can change between now and the deadline.  If the Pirates are out of it then Mitch Keller may be available.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep..that’s how I feel.  Not an expectation but definitely a possibility.

He will also be seeing a jump up in competition leaving the NLC to come to the ALE.

Whatever competition bump there is from the NL Central to the AL East will be balanced out the by the wall in LF.  Huge home field advantage for Burnes.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Whatever competition bump there is from the NL Central to the AL East will be balanced out the by the wall in LF.  Huge home field advantage for Burnes.  

Track record vs. our AL East opponents:

1 start vs. BOS, 5 IP, 2 ER

1 start vs. NYY. 8 IP, 0 ER (and 0 hits!)

1 start vs. TOR, 7.2 IP, 3 ER

Hasn’t faced Tampa

So, SSS, but you have to like what you see there.   

[DirtyBird]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed.  Cease was unlucky.  But his BB% didn't help him any either.  Cease is poised for a bounceback/regression to mean season.

His mean isn't that great. Not all that much better than his '23 season.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

His mean isn't that great. Not all that much better than his '23 season.

No, it’s much better.  He has a career ERA+ of 113, last year was 97.   That’s a big difference.  

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, it’s much better.  He has a career ERA+ of 113, last year was 97.   That’s a big difference.  

You cherry picked one stat.

[Rustbelt]

There is one pitching category that Cease is #1 in past 3 years for qualified pitchers, and it is not even close: pitches thrown per inning.  Also, he has thrown more pitches than anyone over that time frame.  Is that good or bad?   

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

What's stopping you?

I’m not the thread creator wise guy

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Rustbelt said:

There is one pitching category that Cease is #1 in past 3 years for qualified pitchers, and it is not even close: pitches thrown per inning.  Also, he has thrown more pitches than anyone over that time frame.  Is that good or bad?   

I certainly don't love that.