Cease vs everyone else

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I don’t like using fWAR for pitching. It’s largely FIP-based which makes very little sense in terms of evaluating a pitcher’s actual performance on the field which is what WAR is supposed to do (and translating that to value in terms of wins). Bradish had a 3.8 fWAR and Cease had 3.7 despite Bradish having over a run and a half less ERA than Cease. Does that make any sense to you? Because it doesn’t to anyone who has a pair of eyeballs and a little common sense. 
 

Kyle Gibson also had a 2.6 fWAR which is a bit of a joke. His 1.9 rWAR seems much closer to reality and even that seems kind of high, but whatever. 
 

Cease also had a very concerning walk rate. 

Do you want to evaluate a pitcher on what they control or the actual outcomes that are reliant on a multitude of factors?  FIP isn’t perfect, but it accounts for the fact pitchers have different defenses behind them.  Cease has had a terrible defense behind him for multiple years.  fWAR, which is also not perfect, goes a step further and accounts for ballpark factors as well.  Again, Cease pitches in a park that historically has been fairly offensive friendly.  Does that explain the entire ERA difference between him and Bradish?  I have no idea, but if you want to go with Statcast’s xERA, which also accounts for quality of contact, then the difference between the two was 0.25 runs last year.

So if you think Bradish is good, I’d also consider Cease to be good with a much higher upside.  And yes, I do watch a lot of Sox games and have seen 100+ Cease starts.  His pure stuff is incredible and I wonder if people are say he isn’t “good” have ever watched him pitch the last couple years.  He can get wild at times, but when he’s on he’s as dominant as any starter in this league.  I do hope Elias feels that way as well, because IMO Cease is exactly what you guys need to turn you guys into a legitimate postseason threat.

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Overall, an 80 ERA+ sucks.  It’s not worth 4.8 WAR.   rWAR says he was worth 0.1 and that’s a lot closer to the truth.   The guy went 32-42 on a team that was 34 games over .500 while he played for them.  He was above replacement level some of the time, below it sone of the time, and overall, he was a replacement level pitcher for us IMO, just like rWAR says.  

FIP to me is a badly outdated stat and I’d much rather see a version of WAR that is based on xERA or other stats that take quality of contact into account more carefully than FIP.

As to your point about Cano, it’s always hard to compare the value of a reliever and a starter, but I do think there’s a reasonable argument that Cano was more valuable than Cease last year.  Cano had a Win Probability Added of 2.7, Cease was at -0.3.   Cease’s results were below average, and while you can attribute some of that to bad luck or bad defense, that doesn’t make his season a valuable one.  I’ll say this much, I think fWAR’s 3.7 for Cease and 1.7 for Cano is way out of line.  There’s no way Cease was more than twice as valuable.  

Now mind you, I’m just riffing on fWAR here.  I still think Cease is likely to be an above average starter, and I’d like to have him.  That doesn’t change the fact that 2023 wasn’t a good year for him.  

 

Fangraphs has another WAR called RA9-WAR at the bottom of the page. I’ve mentioned it before so forgive me if it feels like I’m beating a dead horse, but it’s a better WAR than fWAR. Just poorly named. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, dystopia said:

FIP is supposed to be a predictive stat, not something to use for “unskewing” other numbers, and even if you want to argue otherwise, his career FIP is 3.84. Good but nothing spectacular. 

It’s comparable to Eovaldi (3.83) and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.85).   That’s about the level I’d put Cease at even without relying on FIP.  

I don’t really think anyone has argued that Cease is much better than that.  But that’s a very useful pitcher, who would slot into our top 3 nicely.  
 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Defense isn’t the end all be all in terms of what determines ERA and WHIP over a full season. Yes, it matters, obviously, but you overvalue it. 
 

An ERA of around 4.00 seems reasonable for what to expect for Cease next year. 

No, the end all be all is what the pitchers can actually control. Ignoring defense is what is foolish and when you dismiss FIP, that’s essentially what you are doing.

An ERA of 4 would have had him 35th amongst starters who threw at least 150 IP last year. Saying that’s 4th starter type stuff is again, factually wrong. 

[Sports Guy]

And CWS is right…fWAR accounts for park factors, which is hugely important and it also accounts for IFFB%, which is  an excellent stat to look at and a very underrated one. 
 

 

[ShoelesJoe]

14 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Why is Cease such a big deal on here

I get that the White Sox are going full rebuild, so Cease should be available. But IMO there are better, more reliable pitchers out there that should be on our trade radar. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert on the Mariners, for example. Seattle is a pitching rich organization than can afford to deal a starter or two, and they're likely desperate for corner OFs and a 1st baseman. Also, they're not in rebuild mode so might be willing to trade for guys in their prime (Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, O'Hearn, Urias) as opposed to a prospects only deal. 

I can't see a Cease trade to Baltimore not including multiple top young studs out of our system. I think that was the sticking point at the trade deadline, and it probably still is. Hard pass if that's the case. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by ShoelesJoe

[Moose Milligan]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Because he’s a realistic and attainable target, has been durable, strikes a lot of guys out and finished 2nd in the Cy Young in 2022.

But is he a realistically obtainable target?  Or has he just been mentioned on here so many times that we seem to think he is?   Wouldn't be the first time that posters on here talk so much about a player that they've convinced themselves into thinking he's a realistic target.  Mark Teixiera comes to mind.

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

For me, it’s the upside he represents. 
 

Power pitchers with good swing and miss are important in October.

Fair, there is upside with him, I don't disagree with that.  I agree with @HakunaSakatathat his 2022 season looks to be a bit of an outlier but there is good tools and talent to work with to make one think that the Orioles could get him back to that 2022 level.

 

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, the end all be all is what the pitchers can actually control. Ignoring defense is what is foolish and when you dismiss FIP, that’s essentially what you are doing.

An ERA of 4 would have had him 35th amongst starters who threw at least 150 IP last year. Saying that’s 4th starter type stuff is again, factually wrong. 

If Cease was in our rotation he would be behind Bradish, G-Rod, and Means. I don’t think he’d be #4 in most rotations, but he would be in ours, IMO. You could put him in front of Means I suppose. 

I did not entirely dismiss FIP but let’s dispense with this notion that a pitcher cannot control balls in play. Look at Means’ game against Cleveland. 1 hit over 7.1 innings while only striking out 4. Are you going to say that Means simply got lucky that all but one of the balls put in play against him was luck? Sure, maybe a few of them were, but he induced weak contact the entire night. Obviously that’s not sustainable long term because pitchers have bad games where their stuff isn’t there and they get lit up, so it evens out, but that’s different than just saying everything put in play is basically random chance whether it becomes a hit or not. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I get that the White Sox are going full rebuild, so Cease should be available. But IMO there are better, more reliable pitchers out there that should be on our trade radar. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert on the Mariners, for example. Seattle is a pitching rich organization than can afford to deal a starter or two, and they're likely desperate for corner OFs and a 1st baseman. Also, they're not in rebuild mode so might be willing to trade for guys in their prime (Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, O'Hearn, Urias) as opposed to a prospects only deal. 

I can't see a Cease trade to Baltimore not including multiple top young studs out of our system. I think that was the sticking point at the trade deadline, and it probably still is. Hard pass if that's the case. 

If the White Sox are going full rebuild, it seems like Cease would be a guy they'd want to keep around, not trade.  He's only 27 and while he could net the White Sox some good talent back, you could make an argument that he's a guy for them to build around, too.  I'm not saying he should be untouchable for them but I don't view him as part of the problem for the White Sox.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

But is he a realistically obtainable target?  Or has he just been mentioned on here so many times that we seem to think he is?   Wouldn't be the first time that posters on here talk so much about a player that they've convinced themselves into thinking he's a realistic target.  Mark Teixiera comes to mind.

Fair, there is upside with him, I don't disagree with that.  I agree with @HakunaSakatathat his 2022 season looks to be a bit of an outlier but there is good tools and talent to work with to make one think that the Orioles could get him back to that 2022 level.

 

Yes, he is definitely realistically obtainable. There is no doubt that they are shopping him and no doubt the Os can trade for him. 
 

And no one has ever stated that his 2022 season isn’t an outlier. If people thought his 2022 season was the norm, there would be a lot more on the table than what is being discussed.

 

[dystopia]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Do you want to evaluate a pitcher on what they control or the actual outcomes that are reliant on a multitude of factors?  FIP isn’t perfect, but it accounts for the fact pitchers have different defenses behind them.  Cease has had a terrible defense behind him for multiple years.  fWAR, which is also not perfect, goes a step further and accounts for ballpark factors as well.  Again, Cease pitches in a park that historically has been fairly offensive friendly.  Does that explain the entire ERA difference between him and Bradish?  I have no idea, but if you want to go with Statcast’s xERA, which also accounts for quality of contact, then the difference between the two was 0.25 runs last year.

So if you think Bradish is good, I’d also consider Cease to be good with a much higher upside.  And yes, I do watch a lot of Sox games and have seen 100+ Cease starts.  His pure stuff is incredible and I wonder if people are say he isn’t “good” have ever watched him pitch the last couple years.  He can get wild at times, but when he’s on he’s as dominant as any starter in this league.  I do hope Elias feels that way as well, because IMO Cease is exactly what you guys need to turn you guys into a legitimate postseason threat.

Daniel Cabrera had great stuff too. 
 

I do think Cease is good. Good, not great. I certainly wouldn’t mind having him in the rotation (especially over another Gibson-type) but I know Chicago will overvalue him so he’s either not coming here or Elias allows himself to get hosed in a deal. 
 

I don’t really believe he’s an attainable target like some here believe which is why I’m tired of hearing about him. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

If Cease was in our rotation he would be behind Bradish, G-Rod, and Means. I don’t think he’d be #4 in most rotations, but he would be in ours, IMO. You could put him in front of Means I suppose. 

I did not entirely dismiss FIP but let’s dispense with this notion that a pitcher cannot control balls in play. Look at Means’ game against Cleveland. 1 hit over 7.1 innings while only striking out 4. Are you going to say that Means simply got lucky that all but one of the balls put in play against him was luck? Sure, maybe a few of them were, but he induced weak contact the entire night. Obviously that’s not sustainable long term because pitchers have bad games where their stuff isn’t there and they get lit up, so it evens out, but that’s different than just saying everything put in play is basically random chance whether it becomes a hit or not. 

Yes, he’s definitely ahead of Means and has the upside to be ahead of everyone.

Your second paragraph is a bit of a strawman. First of all, it’s one game. In any one game, things happen both Lucky and not lucky.

However, there has been countless research done showing pitchers can’t control balls in play. There is something to be said about them being able to control contact but not placement and regardless of both of those, if the defense sucks behind you, it obviously will hurt you. That’s not even debatable. 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

But is he a realistically obtainable target?  Or has he just been mentioned on here so many times that we seem to think he is?   Wouldn't be the first time that posters on here talk so much about a player that they've convinced themselves into thinking he's a realistic target.  Mark Teixiera comes to mind.

Fair, there is upside with him, I don't disagree with that.  I agree with @HakunaSakatathat his 2022 season looks to be a bit of an outlier but there is good tools and talent to work with to make one think that the Orioles could get him back to that 2022 level.

 

It seems like pretty common knowledge that Cease is available on the trade market.  Sure, we don’t know the eventual price but everything points to the White Sox trying to move him this winter.  If that isn’t the definition of “available” then I don’t know what is.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If the White Sox are going full rebuild, it seems like Cease would be a guy they'd want to keep around, not trade.  He's only 27 and while he could net the White Sox some good talent back, you could make an argument that he's a guy for them to build around, too.  I'm not saying he should be untouchable for them but I don't view him as part of the problem for the White Sox.

He has 2 years of service time.  You don’t build around that.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If the White Sox are going full rebuild, it seems like Cease would be a guy they'd want to keep around, not trade.  He's only 27 and while he could net the White Sox some good talent back, you could make an argument that he's a guy for them to build around, too.  I'm not saying he should be untouchable for them but I don't view him as part of the problem for the White Sox.

So you are saying they should Cease to an extension?