Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

I’m hoping the option is taken away from us and they trade him. (Although trading Mountcastle would be just as good)

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years. 

That's a rough approximation but you don't want to build a roster around the concept.

I don't feel confident he'd turn it down and I don't think it would be a smart use of limited money.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is there something that prevents a bigger guy from playing center?  Heck, Judge played a lot of CF at 6'7"/ 280ish last year.  A lot of bigger guys have played center field, Dave Winfield, Mike Trout and Byron Buxton come to mind immediately.  Buxton isn't playing center now because of his repeated injuries not because of his ability.

Usually it’s lack of speed that prevents it.  Average for CF among the 33 CF with 100+ sprint opportunities is about 28.6 ft/sec.  Even Mullins at 28.0 was a bit below average.  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed?min_season=2023&max_season=2023&position=8&team=&min=100

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years. 

The average peak for a player is at 26-28.  Obviously there are plenty of exceptions.   But, if you are signing Santander, the odds of a decline from 3.0 are higher than that he’ll bump up from there.  

[Frobby]

By the way, this thread really is “Cease vs. everybody else.”   Emphasis on “everybody else.”  How does Santander’s FA value get here?

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's a rough approximation but you don't want to build a roster around the concept.

I don't feel confident he'd turn it down and I don't think it would be a smart use of limited money.

 

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

The average peak for a player is at 26-28.  Obviously there are plenty of exceptions.   But, if you are signing Santander, the odds of a decline from 3.0 are higher than that he’ll bump up from there.  

That makes sense.  I just have this sneaking suspicion he’s a guy they don’t want to trade.  It’s hard to see them just letting him walk after the season.  Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, this thread really is “Cease vs. everybody else.”   Emphasis on “everybody else.”  How does Santander’s FA value get here?

We're at page 85.  Santander is about the 17th guy to get a deep dive.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, this thread really is “Cease vs. everybody else.”   Emphasis on “everybody else.”  How does Santander’s FA value get here?

If we don’t get Cease, Santander is in the running for the 5th spot.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If we don’t get Cease, Santander is in the running for the 5th spot.

Can he switch-pitch?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can he switch-pitch?

The new Othani

[OriolesMagic83]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

We're at page 85.  Santander is about the 17th guy to get a deep dive.

I think there have been several pages where Cease wasn't even mentioned and I thought am I on the wrong thread.

[sportsfan8703]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By the way, this thread really is “Cease vs. everybody else.”   Emphasis on “everybody else.”  How does Santander’s FA value get here?

Santa is relevant as are all the COF options if we trade Cowser. We’re thin at rangy LF options for OPACY if Cowser goes. Brings up the question is Cease really worth it?  

[LookinUp]

51 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Is there something that prevents a bigger guy from playing center?  Heck, Judge played a lot of CF at 6'7"/ 280ish last year.  A lot of bigger guys have played center field, Dave Winfield, Mike Trout and Byron Buxton come to mind immediately.  Buxton isn't playing center now because of his repeated injuries not because of his ability.

The Yankees weren't very good last year. I think part of that is because they didn't have a good mix of guys who could hit and play great defense. Obviously, injuries were a big part too.

I only mention this because I think Elias has been deliberate in his attempts to build around athletic guys. We don't have a lot of statues in this organization. 

And would Cease really want a below average outfield behind him? This is my attempt to make this about Cease.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The Yankees weren't very good last year. I think part of that is because they didn't have a good mix of guys who could hit and play great defense. Obviously, injuries were a big part too.

I only mention this because I think Elias has been deliberate in his attempts to build around athletic guys. We don't have a lot of statues in this organization. 

And would Cease really want a below average outfield behind him? This is my attempt to make this about Cease.  

I do agree with this, but you’re right that injuries played a big role too.  Let’s not forget that the Yankees won 99 games in 2022.  

[24fps]

35 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Isn’t the value of WAR ~$8MM this year?  At 3.0 WAR he was worth $24MM this year.  I think he has just about hit his ceiling, but I could see him bumping up to a 3.5 WAR player the next couple of years. 

The dollar value of WAR has been around $8 million for as long as I can remember.  In the case of the Orioles I think it's probably safer and more relevant to look at the actual dollar value of a contract as a percentage of total active payroll.  I think that's especially true when Santander's replacement (Kjerstad or Cowser) is going to cost less than 5% of his projected arb raise and has a good chance of performing almost as well.

Santander is a good, solid player with perhaps a little more in the tank, and if he's on the 2024 team I will be happy.  But I also think his trade value is close to its peak now and with at least two replacements looking for playing time, it's also a justifiable time to move him.  Keeping him and expecting to cash in on a QO being declined however, is not the sort of gamble you would expect from a team with a director of analytics that use to deal blackjack.