2023 Orioles #3 Prospect is Coby Mayo - 3B/1B

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/16/orioles-2023-3-prospect-coby-mayo-3b/

Huge breakout year saw this 21-year old start the year tearing up AA only to finish the year tearing up AAA to become the Orioles #3 overall prospect.

Coby Mayo
Pos: Third baseman
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2023 Level: AA/AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 45/55
Game Power: 50/60
Raw Power: 60/70
Run: 45/40
Defense: 40/45

Most Likely Future Role: 1st Division Starting 3rd Baseman/1st Baseman
Ceiling: 1st division starting third baseman, occasional All-Star

2023 Highlights

What we know: The first thing you have to realize is this would have been Mayo's junior draft year and had he developed in college like he did in the pros, it's not hard to imagine him being the 1-1 pick in the 2023 draft. Instead in he's already put up a 124 wRC+ in 227 AAA PAs, and that was after a slow start.

Mayo made great strides in all aspects of hitting putting up a combined .427 WOBA and a 156 wRC+ between AA and AAA. He started the year just absolutely destroying AA pitching for a .449 wOBA and 178 wRC+ with career high 14.7% BB rate to go along with a respectable 24.8% K rate while putting up a .296 ISO. His AA season included a .307/.424/.603/1.026 slash line highlighted by 30 doubles and 16 home runs in just 347 PAs before earning a promotion to AAA.

He needed an adjustment period in AAA as the more mature pitchers gave him a assortment of breaking balls that he struggled with at times, slashing just .194/.284/.398/.682 in his first 29 games over 109 PAs. Mayo though not only made the adjustments, he absolutely dominated AAA pitching over the last 37 games slashing .341/.480/.652/1.131 with 9 doubles, 11 homers and an extremely impressive 32 BB - 37 K ratio over 171 PAs.

Mayo is able to make these adjustments because an extremely smart hitter who studies what pitchers are trying to do to him. He can make not only in game adjustments, but will make in at bat adjustments at times and rarely chased once he got comfortable putting up a very respectable 10.3 swing strike rate over the season. He doesn't miss many mistakes and will make pitchers work by getting into many deep counts looking for his pitch to do damage on.

While he's still a bit of a pull hitter, he has power to all fields and can hit a ball out of any ball park with his plus raw power and improving game power. His 20.1% FB/HR ratio was second only to Jud Fabian in the organization, and combined with his low 10.3% swinging strike percentage makes that an exciting combination.

Defensively, Mayo also made strides at third base where he worked on moving closer to the hitter and working on a drop step vs positioning himself so deep. This allowed him to come in on balls more effectively and the drop step allowed him to set his feet under him better and use his plus plus arm to throw out runners. Mayo's throwing accuracy also improved this season with the better footwork and a slightly lowered arm angle though he can still struggle at time when moving to his left. Listed at 6-5, 230 the concern remains whether he will eventually end up too big to play an effective 3B, but for now, he's shown enough improvements that he can play 3B effectively if a team is going to live with a few more errors then some would like. In his limited play at first base, Mayo took well to the position and looks to be a legitimate option there, though he would waste his plus plus arm.

He's an average to slightly below average runner so he's not base clogger, but he will slow with age due to his size. He's athletic enough and moves well once he get going.

What we don't know: Mayo has needed to adjust to pretty much every level so it's reasonable to expect he'll need an adjustment period at the major league level as well. With a team that should be competing for another AL East crown, will the Orioles be patient enough to give those PAs and how fast can he make that adjustment. Defensively, the question also exists where will he play since the Orioles have several better defensive options at 3B including Gunnar Henderson and Joey Ortiz and with Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn over at 1B barring any trades this off season.

What we think: Mayo would be the #1 prospect in many other organizations and is absolutely an impact positional prospect. After the heater he was on at the end of the 2023 season, he should get an opportunity to win a job with the Orioles next spring or shortly there after if Elias chooses to keep him down a bit longer to add to his 267 AAA PAs. Mayo is going to end up a middle of the order hitter in a major league lineup for years to come.

[wildcard]

Sounds to me like he is a bat the O's are going to want in their lineup in the near future.   Maybe not OD but soon.    1B/DH type because as you state the O's have better options at 3B.  

He is probably going to push Mountcastle and O'Hearn for playing time.  A trade at the deadline might be in order.    All three players have options. 

 

[Sports Guy]

He should be the OD first baseman imo.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He should be the OD first baseman imo.

So you have 3 rookies in the infield?   Holliday, Mayo and Ortiz?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you have 3 rookies in the infield?   Holliday, Mayo and Ortiz?

Holliday wouldn’t start on OD for me and one of Ortiz or Westburg would be traded.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you have 3 rookies in the infield?   Holliday, Mayo and Ortiz?

There’s a part of me that feels that 2024 is a year where we may need to sacrifice a few wins to find out what we have in these young players.  They are talented and will take some lumps but we’ll be better off for 2025 and beyond if all of Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Ortiz and Holliday get 300+ PA in the majors this year.  I think we could do that and still make the playoffs.  But even if not, it would set us up well to come charging out of the gate in 2025.   All that said, I agree with SG that 1-2 of these guys could be traded this winter, so we’ll see who’s competing for a job in March.  

Back to Mayo, I think his future is at 1B.  Sure, he might eventually play a passable 3B, but we’ve got multiple better defensive options there, so why do it?  I really don’t care about “wasting his plus plus arm” if his overall play at 3B is just so-so.   Just put him at 1B, where he’ll outhit Mountcastle, and be happy about it.  
 

[SpOkane]

Weaver tried this guy who supposedly had a strong arm at 3B named Eddie Murray.

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s a part of me that feels that 2024 is a year where we may need to sacrifice a few wins to find out what we have in these young players.  They are talented and will take some lumps but we’ll be better off for 2025 and beyond if all of Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Ortiz and Holliday get 300+ PA in the majors this year.  I think we could do that and still make the playoffs.  But even if not, it would set us up well to come charging out of the gate in 2025.   All that said, I agree with SG that 1-2 of these guys could be traded this winter, so we’ll see who’s competing for a job in March.  

Back to Mayo, I think his future is at 1B.  Sure, he might eventually play a passable 3B, but we’ve got multiple better defensive options there, so why do it?  I really don’t care about “wasting his plus plus arm” if his overall play at 3B is just so-so.   Just put him at 1B, where he’ll outhit Mountcastle, and be happy about it.  
 

Elias' stated goal is to win the division and go further in the playoffs.    I don't think scarificing wins is in the plan.  I think he staggers the rookies debuts to not have too many going through their adjustment periods at the same time.

[btdart20]

I'd love for him to stick at 3B, but 1B or 3B debate isn't as big of a deal for me.  But that MOO bat!  I hope his Rookie Integration Plan starts from OD.  

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

Elias' stated goal is to win the division and go further in the playoffs.    I don't think scarificing wins is in the plan.  I think he staggers the rookies debuts to not have too many going through their adjustment periods at the same time.

I think having the best possible team by the end of 2024 is the best way to go deep in the playoffs.   You may need to lose some games early to do that, giving some experience to very talented young guys who are going to be key components to this team the next 5 years.  

And, you can do that while staggering the rookies.   You can get Holliday and Mayo 300 PA without having them on the OD roster.   
 

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think having the best possible team by the end of 2024 is the best way to go deep in the playoffs.   You may need to lose some games early to do that, giving some experience to very talented young guys who are going to be key components to this team the next 5 years.  

And, you can do that while staggering the rookies.   You can get Holliday and Mayo 300 PA without having them on the OD roster.   
 

I don't think either are on the OD roster.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think either are on the OD roster.

Neither do I.  But I think they’ll get a serious look in the spring and it wouldn’t shock me if one of them did make it.  

[LookinUp]

I think Elias waits to promote these guys and gets the extra year of control, and I'm cool with that.

If I'm him, I'm not trading these premium guys, even for a TOR starter. We have the opportunity to build a truly great offense for several years. I'd do it.

BTW, if Mayo is #3, Basallo's profile will be awesome. Gotta love this, even though my top 10 is pretty much 100% wrong compared to Tony's. I'm either 0-4 or 1-4 with his choices. I may have gotten the Bradfield/Beavers choice right.

[NCRaven]

I’m holding out for right field.  As a voice in the wilderness…

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I’m holding out for right field.  As a voice in the wilderness…

Unfortunately, RF is probably the best spot for Cowser, Kjerstad, and Beavers.  It would help if Mayo could handle 3B or 1B.