Orioles ZiPS are out

[Just Regular]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projection-baltimore-orioles/

My top two takeaways from first skim are Holliday/Westburg dead even for 2024, and them liking Stowers a few points of OPS+ better than Cowser/Kjerstad.

[Moose Milligan]

Quoted for SG!!!

Quote

This is a very good team. The question is whether ownership is willing to invest enough for the Orioles to really find their ceiling.

 

[Aristotelian]

A little surprised they have Kremer as our second best pitcher, ahead of Grayson and Means. 

[Frobby]

One of the more interesting things in here is that Stowers’ .729 OPS projection is higher than either Kjerstad’s .713 or Cowser’s .707.  Also, Holliday’s .722 is higher than Urias’ .716 or Ortiz’s .662.   

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

A little surprised they have Kremer as our second best pitcher, ahead of Grayson and Means. 

ZiPS loved Kremer last year, too.  

[interloper]

I can't think of anything less worthy of anyone's time than ZiPS projections. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

I can't think of anything less worthy of anyone's time than ZiPS projections. 

Why?  It’s an enjoyable pastime on a November day.  

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why?  It’s an enjoyable pastime on a November day.  

To each their own, I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys this stuff, but for me, it's just empty calories. The projections mean nothing, they are frequently way off, and they just don't add a lot of substance to the general baseball conversation. When we say "oh wow they like Kremer this year", what does that even mean? Nothing, as far as I can tell. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

To each their own, I don't begrudge anyone who enjoys this stuff, but for me, it's just empty calories. The projections mean nothing, they are frequently way off, and they just don't add a lot of substance to the general baseball conversation. When we say "oh wow they like Kremer this year", what does that even mean? Nothing, as far as I can tell. 

I don’t really disagree, I just don’t see it as any different from arguing about some trade that has about an 0.1% chance of occurring.  

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really disagree, I just don’t see it as any different from arguing about some trade that has about an 0.1% chance of occurring.  

Yeah I'm consciously trying to not engage in "trade scenarios" this year. My take is: trades barely ever happen, statistically, compared to other transactions and therefore, almost every trade "scenario" is not worth engaging in except to say, "well, this probably isn't going to happen so my advice is to not focus on it". 

Like, everyone is hung up on Cease and people will be annoyed when it doesn't happen because they've focused all this energy on it. We're not special. Every team needs starting pitching. We are therefore not very likely to acquire Cease (or whomever), regardless of our farm system outranking everybody. I don't really see the farm system being a big factor in trades being consummated, honestly. Anyway, I digress. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

They really love Bradish.

I do agree that I find these types of projections rather worthless.

[Moose Milligan]

I get why @Frobbyfinds them enjoyable.  But I can't get behind them when they think that Stowers will OPS higher than Holliday.  

[btdart20]

I tend to look at these for the commentary more so than the specific projections (which are fun).  Kinda like how Tony says don’t wrapped up in the spot and the reports matter more in his prospect write ups.

This is one of the best offensive teams in baseball. While that’s never a guarantee of success, it’s a great place to start!

the rotation is at least acceptable so long as they don’t have poor luck with injuries. 

It’s tempting to consider Baltimore’s 101 win-total in 2023 to be the team’s “starting point,” but that’s a path to disappointment

Then finishes the last quote with bullpen quantifies sealed with Bautista’s absence.

Norfolk could be stacked again:

It’s only a slight exaggeration to say that I’d rather have a lineup of all the Orioles who don’t make their team’s 25-man roster out of spring training than all the Washington Nationals who do!

[Can_of_corn]

My main takeaway was finding out there was a guy named Razor Shines.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

I can't think of anything less worthy of anyone's time than ZiPS projections. 

A Jim Bowden free agent and trade rumor article.