Orioles ZiPS are out

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

I can't think of anything less worthy of anyone's time than ZiPS projections. 

Ever try arguing with Sportsguy?

[jabba72]

4 hours ago, interloper said:

I can't think of anything less worthy of anyone's time than ZiPS projections. 

In past years they seem kind of conservative. So I got less and less excited to read them to the point where I haven't clicked on the link for them yet. Maybe by late January I'll get the urge to check them out. 

[now]

I agree, it's all pretty random and meaningless... but nevertheless somewhat entertaining when it comes to the list of comps (by age). Most of those names didn't register to me at all, especially for our fringe prospects, but there are a bunch of old familiars from the 60s and 70s, and some striking stars sprinkled in. Here's my personal selection of names that have some relevance in memory or star power, or just former Orioles.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by now

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get why @Frobbyfinds them enjoyable.  But I can't get behind them when they think that Stowers will OPS higher than Holliday.  

On the other hand, ZiPS has Holliday 4th best in WAR on the entire team, at 2.8.   Not bad at age 20.   I may have to rethink my view that Holliday probably won't make the Opening Day roster.

[MarCakes21]

Can someone remind me of the way these are calculated, mainly on the PA level?  Ie, Jud Fabian is getting 516 PAs.  But that's not at the ML level, so what is that a projection of?  Why do so many PAs look prorated accurately and so many others just full and arbitrary?

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Can someone remind me of the way these are calculated, mainly on the PA level?  Ie, Jud Fabian is getting 516 PAs.  But that's not at the ML level, so what is that a projection of?  Why do so many PAs look prorated accurately and so many others just full and arbitrary?

From the horse’s mouth:

“Another crucial thing to bear in mind is that the basic ZiPS projections are not playing-time predictors, at least with players without firm possession of a full-time job in the majors. By design, ZiPS has no idea who will actually play in the majors in 2024. ZiPS is essentially projecting equivalent production; a batter with a .240 projection may ‘actually’ have a .260 Triple-A projection or a .290 Double-A projection. But telling me how Julio Rodríguez would hit in a full-time role in the majors in 2022 was a far more interesting use of a projection system than it telling me that he would only play a partial season (in the end, quite obviously, he played a full year).”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/here-come-the-2024-zips-projections/

[MarCakes21]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

From the horse’s mouth:

“Another crucial thing to bear in mind is that the basic ZiPS projections are not playing-time predictors, at least with players without firm possession of a full-time job in the majors. By design, ZiPS has no idea who will actually play in the majors in 2024. ZiPS is essentially projecting equivalent production; a batter with a .240 projection may ‘actually’ have a .260 Triple-A projection or a .290 Double-A projection. But telling me how Julio Rodríguez would hit in a full-time role in the majors in 2022 was a far more interesting use of a projection system than it telling me that he would only play a partial season (in the end, quite obviously, he played a full year).”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/here-come-the-2024-zips-projections/

So weird.  Why put Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo around 400 ABs, but have Colton Cowser and Jud Fabian over 500 then.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

So weird.  Why put Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo around 400 ABs, but have Colton Cowser and Jud Fabian over 500 then.

No idea.  I guess they figure Cowser and Fabian will get 500 at bats somewhere, even if some/most are in the minors.  Personally, I tend to only look at the rate projections like BA/OBP/SLG and OPS+.   

Edited November 28, 2023 by Frobby

[BRobinsonfan]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

My main takeaway was finding out there was a guy named Razor Shines.

If Razor Shines did not exist it would be necessary to invent him.  

[now]

With a previous post in this thread I highlighted a selection of notable or memorable comps for our current Orioles. Now I wonder what it would look like to compare our best roster (from that selected list, in order of WAR) with the corresponding squad of not-all-stars.  

Without further ado, here's our team alongside its historic counterparts:

LF    Norby        Eugenio Suarez
CF    Mullins        Kevin Kiermaier
RF    Cowser        Ken Singleton
1B    Mayo        Bill Melton
2B    Holliday    Arky Vaughan
SS    Ortiz        Jose Pagan
3B    Henderson    Bill Madlock
C    Ruthschman    Ted Simmons
DH    Westburg    Robby Thompson    
Bench    Mateo        Greg Gagne    

SP1    Bradish        Justin Verlander
SP2    Kremer        Johnny Cueto
SP3    Rodriguez    Jose Berrios
SP4    Povich        Jarrod Washburn    
SP5    Irvin        Scott McGregor
RP1    Pham        Jeff Samardzija
RP2    McDermott    Steve Renko
RP3    Vespi        Graeme Lloyd
RP4    Baker        Matt Albers
Closer    Bautista    Trevor Hoffman

Oddly enough, it's the starting rotation that appears the strength of our team of doppelgangers.

[Sports Guy]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-cringe-2024-zips-projections/

[Frobby]

 

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-cringe-2024-zips-projections/

Best record in the AL?  Works for me!

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Best record in the AL?  Works for me!

Yeah, can’t hate too much on those. I think 95 wins being the highest is extremely unlikely though 

[ThisIsBirdland]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Best record in the AL?  Works for me!

This fanbase basically runs on a FanGraphs inferiority complex though.  Not sure people will know what to do with themselves.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yeah, can’t hate too much on those. I think 95 wins being the highest is extremely unlikely though 

lol..you hated on them all the time before but not because they say what you want, you love them.  SMFH