Orioles ZiPS are out

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol..you hated on them all the time before but not because they say what you want, you love them.  SMFH

Yeah a better and more realistic prediction will get less criticism. Imagine that! 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yeah a better and more realistic prediction will get less criticism. Imagine that! 

So it’s better and more realistic because you agree with it?  

[btdart20]

Looks like they didn't update the projections after the Kemp signing.

[SteveA]

27 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Yeah, can’t hate too much on those. I think 95 wins being the highest is extremely unlikely though 

If you read some of the text, that is not really what they are projecting.   The win projection for each team is it's 50th percentile projection of wins.   So those will tend to be towards the middle.   But by definition, 3 of the 30 teams in MLB should hit their 90th percent projection, and there are quite a few teams whose 90th percent projection is > 95 wins.   And 6 of the 30 teams should hit their 80% projection, and so forth.    (And on the other end, 3 of the 30 teams should only meet their 10% projection, etc).  

So those projections are kind of the average of what each team will produce according to their system, so they tend to bunch towards the middle.   But it's a given that some teams will significantly exceed their projection, and some will significantly fall short, which will "un-bunch" the numbers.    So they aren't saying that no one will win more than 95, or that no one will win more than 91 in the AL.   But they aren't going to pick which teams will over- or under- perform their own projected #s.

But the bottom line is the Orioles have the highest 50% projection in the AL, which is pretty astonishing.   I think that even here, an Oriole fan site, the majority of the fans don't believe we are the most talented team in the league right now.   But Fangraphs basically does!

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So it’s better and more realistic because you agree with it?  

Still butthurt over getting your clock cleaned in the Holliday thread, huh?

[Philip]

Considering so many people put so much stock in Pythagorean records, it’s surprising how little they factor into predictions.

Last year, the Yankees Pythagorean record had them at 78 wins, they outperformed that by four wins, and almost everybody has them in the low 90s.

We outperformed ours by seven wins, so if the Yankees and Orioles had exactly performed as Pythagoras expected, we’d have lapped them by 16 wins.

But the Rays Pythagorean record was 100-62, so they’d have won the division.

Are the Yankees going to make up 14 games? Only if a few additional folks over there sell their souls.

We are clearly the strongest team, the deepest team, and I’m sure that everybody on the team calls their mother twice a week, fosters stray dogs and cats, attend church regularly, and leave large tips.

we da best!

Edited March 27 by Philip

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Still butthurt over getting your clock cleaned in the Holliday thread, huh?

lol..yea I’m butt hurt because you embarrassed yourself and never proved your point.  
 

Tony almost banned you today for being a moron…and i see you want to keep the streak going.

Edited March 27 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Philip said:

Considering so many people put so much stock in Pythagorean records, it’s surprising how little they factor into predictions.

Last year, the Yankees Pythagorean record had them at 78 wins, they outperformed that by four wins, and almost everybody has them in the low 90s.

We outperformed ours by seven wins, so if the Yankees and Orioles had exactly performed as Pythagoras expected, we’d have lapped them by 16 wins.

But the Rays Pythagorean record was 100-62, so they’d have won the division.

Are the Yankees going to make up 14 games? Only if a few additional folks over there sell their souls.

We are clearly the strongest team, the deepest team, and I’m sure that everybody on the team calls their mother twice a week, fosters stray dogs and cats, attend church regularly, and leave large tips.

we da best!

Predictions and pythag theorems are 2 vastly different things.

[Philip]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Predictions and pythag theorems are 2 vastly different things.

Yes, and?  The point remains valid that that Yankees weren’t as strong as their record last year and it is at least arguable that they aren’t meaningfully better than they were last year.

Edited March 27 by Philip

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Philip said:

Yes, and?  The point remains valid that that Yankees weren’t as strong as their record last year and it is at best arguable that they aren’t meaningfully better than they were last year.

Well after the Cole injury, it’s debatable.

Pre Cole injury, you had Soto and a healthy Rodon and Stroman.  They were better on paper. Defense could be an issue though.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well after the Cole injury, it’s debatable.

Pre Cole injury, you had Soto and a healthy Rodon and Stroman.  They were better on paper. Defense could be an issue though.

I'm curious if they are going to load manage Judge.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

But the bottom line is the Orioles have the highest 50% projection in the AL, which is pretty astonishing.   I think that even here, an Oriole fan site, the majority of the fans don't believe we are the most talented team in the league right now.   But Fangraphs basically does!

To be clear, ZiPS does.   The official Fangraphs projections are based partly on ZiPS, partly on Steamer, and their methodology of playing out the different scenarios is different than what Szymborski uses for ZiPS, too.   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm curious if they are going to load manage Judge.

Putting him in CF with that toe injury seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, Philip said:

Yes, and?  The point remains valid that that Yankees weren’t as strong as their record last year and it is at least arguable that they aren’t meaningfully better than they were last year.

The Yankees can improve a lot if they’re healthier.   That’s the reason they underperformed expectations last year by so much.   They lost 1,835 games to injury, compared to 788 for the Orioles.  I’ve been tracking injuries for about the last 12 years, and 1,835 is the largest I can ever recall, by a pretty good margin.  And it wasn’t just quantity.   They lost a lot of key guys for significant chunks of time.   

Now, will this year be better?  Hard to say.  They have a lot of older players, and old guys get hurt more and don’t recover as fast.   
 

[Just Regular]

It was only a foul ball off his foot, but the Yankees actions with respect to 3B DJ LeMahieu the last odd week have been:

1. Boone says he's a little behind but could be okay for today.

2. Boone says he's probably not going to make it and LeMahieu is getting an MRI.

3. Trade for Jon Berti.