Is Luzardo a realistic target?

[HakunaSakata]

13 minutes ago, Orange said:

It would take a big package, but they do need position players... Basallo, Kjerstad, Norby, Povich, McDermott, and maybe a youngster like Almeyda. That might not get it done though. They'll want Holliday but they can't have him. I would trade those six for him. Luzardo is everything I want.

The problem is that the Marlins are probably in a position where their fans expect them to contend again so I think they'll want MLB ready pieces. Of the names you mentioend, Kjerstad is the only one who seems to fit that description. 

I just suggested, in another comment, that a trade based around Mullins/Westberg might work. They have glaring needs in the OF and SS and that would fill two of their biggest holes. I'd hate to part with Mullins, but I think it would be worth it to land a 26 year old pitcher under contract for three more seasons. 

[Orange]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

That is way, way, WAY, WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much. Insanity. 

26 years old, lefty, three arb years, 10.5 K/9, ERA in the low 3's... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luzarje01.shtml

To me he's worth much, much more than Cease.

Which part of the offer do you object to? Gotta be Basallo, right? That one hurts, as does Kjerstad. Povich, Norby, and McDermott have value but they are replaceable. Almeyda is a lottery ticket. You gotta give to get... I think Basallo and Kjerstad will end up as 1B/DH types. I think we can cover that with Mayo and our other guys.

To get a bona fide ace with three years of control is expensive. Especially when they are left handed with the numbers I mentioned.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Orange said:

26 years old, lefty, three arb years, 10.5 K/9, ERA in the low 3's... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luzarje01.shtml

To me he's worth much, much more than Cease.

Which part of the offer do you object to? Gotta be Basallo, right? That one hurts, as does Kjerstad. Povich, Norby, and McDermott have value but they are replaceable. Almeyda is a lottery ticket. You gotta give to get... I think Basallo and Kjerstad will end up as 1B/DH types. I think we can cover that with Mayo and our other guys.

To get a bona fide ace with three years of control is expensive. Especially when they are left handed with the numbers I mentioned.

Nothing about Luzardo makes him worth both Basallo and Kjerstad, much less the rest of your proposal, which also includes TWO of the best 3 SP prospects in the org, oh and an IF prospect. 

Sheesh dude. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 I can see a bunch of scenarios here. I could see Miami wanting an established Ml player because they aren’t rebuilding or anything.

Could they want Hays? Or Santander? I could see that.

Possibly, but neither one of those players would even put a dent into reaching Luzardo's trade value. If they want a veteran, I think it would have to be Mullins, unless you're just talking about just including Santander or Mountcastle as a tertiary piece. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Possibly, but neither one of those players would even put a dent into reaching Luzardo's trade value. If they want a veteran, I think it would have to be Mullins, unless you're just talking about just including Santander or Mountcastle as a tertiary piece. 

Obviously they wouldn’t be the reason you get Luzardo..but they absolutely could be part of the trade.

 

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Nothing about Luzardo makes him worth both Basallo and Kjerstad, much less the rest of your proposal, which also includes TWO of the best 3 SP prospects in the org, oh and an IF prospect. 

Sheesh dude. 

Agreed, but he's right about him being worth more than Cease. If the Marlins only wanted prospects there's no way we'd be able to balance out Luzardo's trade value without including one of our big three. The good news is they foolishly think they're probably a contender so some of our MLB vets might have some appeal (as opposed ot the White Sox who would want only prospects).  

[Spy Fox]

6 minutes ago, Orange said:

26 years old, lefty, three arb years, 10.5 K/9, ERA in the low 3's... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luzarje01.shtml

To me he's worth much, much more than Cease.

Which part of the offer do you object to? Gotta be Basallo, right? That one hurts, as does Kjerstad. Povich, Norby, and McDermott have value but they are replaceable. Almeyda is a lottery ticket. You gotta give to get... I think Basallo and Kjerstad will end up as 1B/DH types. I think we can cover that with Mayo and our other guys.

To get a bona fide ace with three years of control is expensive. Especially when they are left handed with the numbers I mentioned.

I think this underrates the extent to which Cease is a safer investment. His performance has sustained for a longer time and he has less of a recent injury history. You can never perfectly predict health, but part of Cease's appeal is that he's been on the mound in an MLB rotation every five days for basically 4.5 seasons straight, with no health issues and good overall results. 

It might be true that Luzardo costs more for the reasons you mentioned, but I don't think it should be hugely different. 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously they wouldn’t be the reason you get Luzardo..but they absolutely could be part of the trade.

 

It's really a shame Mullins had such a down year. If we were coming off his 2022 season you could make an argument that Mullins + a lower level prospect might be a good enough starting point.  My guess is the Marlins would be interested in Santander the most (to replace Soler), but we'd have to include some REALLY good prospects along with him. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Spy Fox said:

I think this underrates the extent to which Cease is a safer investment. His performance has sustained for a longer time and he has less of a recent injury history. You can never perfectly predict health, but part of Cease's appeal is that he's been on the mound in an MLB rotation every five days for basically 4.5 seasons straight, with no health issues and good overall results. 

It might be true that Luzardo costs more for the reasons you mentioned, but I don't think it should be hugely different. 

People are overrating Luzardo. It is possible the Marlins will only trade him if they get one of our top 3 guys and that’s fine…but his career profile does not say he’s worth that. His 2023 does and his age and service time does, although like I said, the service time is effected somewhat by the idea that it’s going to cost a lot more money for the next 3 years than a non super 2 guy would. 

But prior to 2023, there is nothing about him that says he’s even worth Cowser outside of saying, we love his potential, so we are trading potential for potential.

Cease is the most established guy.  That’s just a fact.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think this underrates the extent to which Cease is a safer investment. His performance has sustained for a longer time and he has less of a recent injury history. You can never perfectly predict health, but part of Cease's appeal is that he's been on the mound in an MLB rotation every five days for basically 4.5 seasons straight, with no health issues and good overall results. 

It might be true that Luzardo costs more for the reasons you mentioned, but I don't think it should be hugely different. 

I don't disagree with any of this, but I still think I'd prefer Luzardo. I'd rather go for the slightly younger player who I think has the higher ceiling. I also think you're underestimating the value of the extra year of control and the age difference. Luzardo also has considerably less mileage on his arm. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I don't disagree with any of this, but I still think I'd prefer Luzardo. I'd rather go for the slightly younger player who I think has the higher ceiling. I also think you're underestimating the value of the extra year of control and the age difference. Luzardo also has considerably less mileage on his arm. 

Luzardo absolutely doesn’t have a higher ceiling. His ceiling may be high  enough that he can put himself in position to win a CY but Cease has already done that. Luzardo’s ceiling isn’t higher than what Cease did in 2022.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Sports Guy

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Luzardo absolutely doesn’t have a higher ceiling. His ceiling may be much enough that he can put himself in position to win a CY but Cease has already done that. Luzardo’s ceiling isn’t higher than what Cease did in 2022.

Cease repeating 2022 isn’t realistic at all. 

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Orange said:

26 years old, lefty, three arb years, 10.5 K/9, ERA in the low 3's... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/luzarje01.shtml

To me he's worth much, much more than Cease.

Which part of the offer do you object to? Gotta be Basallo, right? That one hurts, as does Kjerstad. Povich, Norby, and McDermott have value but they are replaceable. Almeyda is a lottery ticket. You gotta give to get... I think Basallo and Kjerstad will end up as 1B/DH types. I think we can cover that with Mayo and our other guys.

To get a bona fide ace with three years of control is expensive. Especially when they are left handed with the numbers I mentioned.

I think the package is a bit much but I also don’t think you deserve the flack you’re gettIng.  I think the Marlins would want a combination of present and future pieces.   
 

[IPlayGM]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Luzardo absolutely doesn’t have a higher ceiling. His ceiling may be much enough that he can put himself in position to win a CY but Cease has already done that. Luzardo’s ceiling isn’t higher than what Cease did in 2022.

I also don’t think age matters that much here…you are done with both of them after their current contracts.

[HakunaSakata]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Luzardo absolutely doesn’t have a higher ceiling. His ceiling may be much enough that he can put himself in position to win a CY but Cease has already done that. Luzardo’s ceiling isn’t higher than what Cease did in 2022.

Track record is important...to an extent. We've had this discussion before, but we have enough data to reasonable make an educated claim that Cease's 2022 was and will be the outlier in his career. I don't think he'll ever come close that ceiling again, and when we trade for a player I'm more interested in what they will do not what they have done. That's why I said Luzardo has a higher ceiling. I don't think we've seen his "best" yet.