Is Luzardo a realistic target?

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

They need a DH, OF, SS, and catcher. They only scored 666 runs. Santander only is a 3 WAR player. . Ortiz is a top 100 prospect, Norby is a fringe Top 100, and Willems is also a solid prospect. I’d be Okay sending Santander & Hays plus but I’d be surprised if Elias would.

It's not ok. It's the type of sh*tty offer in which the other GM hangs up the phone and doesn't bother calling back. Players like Santander and Hays have very little trade value compared to someone like Luzardo. If the Marlins want a MLB player then "maybe" Mullins + prospects is enough to get their attention, Everything I've read though suggests that they'd be more interested in a prospect only package. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Just to be clear, you are talking about trading for Jesus Luzardo, right?

Santander is a 3 WAR player if healthy. He also only has one year of control left and will probably cost around $12 million. That limits his value.

Ortiz fills the SS need, sure.

Willems doesn't help them out at catcher next year or probably ever. Dude is a longshot to be a meaningful contributor at the ML level.

If the Marlins came to you asking for Bradish and offering the equivalent of Santander, Ortiz, Willems, you'd laugh them out of the room. Even if the O's had needs at OF, SS and C

Santander has had 650 ABs 2 years in a row. Trying to devalue him using that is a fools errand. 3 WAR is worth somewhere around 18-21 million depending on whose info you’re reading. So getting him for 12 is a relative bargain. Plus he’s knocked in 90 2 years in a row and that’s what they need. Plus they could agree on it being contingent on an extension. 
 

And as the other poster mentioned Pasquantino was mentioned by Rosenthal. He has control but was worth .1 War….hardly proven. You could argue they’d get better with Norby ….whom I’m confident would give control, exceed .1 WAR, and probably outperform anything P does.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Roll Tide

[HakunaSakata]

52 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Interesting that Rosenthal suggests a Pasquantino for Luzardo deal might have been enough? I guess extra pieces may have been involved, but it doesn’t really read that way. 
 

I’ve always assumed Luzardo would require either Mayo or Basallo so I’ve stayed somewhat detached but Pasquantino being the centerpiece makes me think we could come up with something that would work. 

I doubt it was a one for one, but also Pasquantino is also a VERY good hitter. 

I think a Westberg + Cowser or Kjerstad offer would be enough to get the Marlins attention. They could slot Westberg in as their everyday SS and move Berti back to a super UTIL role. And then shuffle Cowser, Bell and Sanchez between RF, 1B, and DH throughout the season. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's not ok. It's the type of sh*tty offer in which the other GM hangs up the phone and doesn't bother calling back. Players like Santander and Hays have very little trade value compared to someone like Luzardo. If the Marlins want a MLB player then "maybe" Mullins + prospects is enough to get their attention, Everything I've read though suggests that they'd be more interested in a prospect only package. 

I think you really overrate Mullins’ trade value compared to Mountcastle, Hays and Santander.

Mullins was hurt and didn’t perform well last year. That undoubtedly affected his value while the other guys had good seasons.  And Santander is the only guy he has more service time then.

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Santander has had 650 ABs 2 years in a row. Trying to devalue him using that is a fools errand. 3 WAR is worth somewhere around 18-21 million depending on whose info you’re reading. So getting him for 12 is a relative bargain. Plus he’s knocked in 90 2 years in a row and that’s what they need. Plus they could agree on it being contingent on an extension. 
 

And as the other poster mentioned Pasquantino was mentioned by Rosenthal. He has control but was worth .1 War….hardly proven. You could argue they’d get better with Norby ….whom I’m confident would give control, exceed .1 WAR, and probably outperform anything P does.

You're completely missing the point and not looking at the age of the players and the remaining years left on the contracts where there's a HUGE disparity. Also, good luck finding a Luzardo FA equivalent (for the what he's making) in the FA market whereas there are several comparable FAs to Santander. 

Also Pasquantino is 1,000 times more valuable than Santander. He's younger and a MUCH better hitter. We're not in the chicks dig the long ball era anymore. OBP rules and Vinnie P has flirted with a .400 OBP as recently as 2022. No one's writing him off after his short season in 2023 because of a torn labrum. And no one is taking Norby over him. 

[Roll Tide]

15 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's not ok. It's the type of sh*tty offer in which the other GM hangs up the phone and doesn't bother calling back. Players like Santander and Hays have very little trade value compared to someone like Luzardo. If the Marlins want a MLB player then "maybe" Mullins + prospects is enough to get their attention, Everything I've read though suggests that they'd be more interested in a prospect only package. 

Your funny!
 

If they want run production Santander fills a need. If they want Mullins I’d be okay with that. But, he performed much less than Anthony. As I mentioned, I’d send both, or swap out one for Hays or Mountcastle and a couple of our non top 5 prospects. 

Hays/Mullins/Mountcastle cover the offensive loss of production by losing Soler. Santander adds 90 RBIs maybe more in the NL and their stadium. 
 

By reading the article it sounds like they want sure thing run producers for now. Offering Kjerstad or Cowser and Or Westburg doesn’t do that. 

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think you really overrate Mullins’ trade value compared to Mountcastle, Hays and Santander.

Mullins was hurt and didn’t perform well last year. That undoubtedly affected his value while the other guys had good seasons.  And Santander is the only guy he has more service time then.

I said maybe. I honestly don't think any of our vet OF are enough to move the needle in a Luzardo trade. I think it would have to be all prospects and probably at least one who we really don't want to trade. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Your funny!
 

If they want run production Santander fills a need. If they want Mullins I’d be okay with that. But, he performed much less than Anthony. As I mentioned, I’d send both, or swap out one for Hays or Mountcastle and a couple of our non top 5 prospects. 

Hays/Mullins/Mountcastle cover the offensive loss of production by losing Soler. Santander adds 90 RBIs maybe more in the NL and their stadium. 
 

By reading the article it sounds like they want sure thing run producers for now. Offering Kjerstad or Cowser and Or Westburg doesn’t do that. 

Sending both vets does nothing. I'm not sure why you can't grasp the concept of how much age and contract length factor into a player's trade value. The Marlins aren't giving up a young controllable pitcher for older players who will be FAs in 1-2 years and fringe prospects. 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

You're completely missing the point and not looking at the age of the players and the remaining years left on the contracts where there's a HUGE disparity. Also, good luck finding a Luzardo FA equivalent (for the what he's making) in the FA market whereas there are several comparable FAs to Santander. 

Also Pasquantino is 1,000 times more valuable than Santander. He's younger and a MUCH better hitter. We're not in the chicks dig the long ball era anymore. OBP rules and Vinnie P has flirted with a .400 OBP as recently as 2022. No one's writing him off after his short season in 2023 because of a torn labrum. And no one is taking Norby over him. 

No I’m not …..Pasquentino hasnt put it all together yet. He’s currently not a better hit than Santander. Use the stats not projections. Maybe he ends up better, maybe he doesn’t. Santander has 60 homers and 180 RBIs over the last two seasons vs 19 and 54. 
 

So it would depend if their GM wants predictable performance or a might be. Their pitching is good enough that they could be a major contender this year. Pas doesn’t even guarantee the RBIs lost with Soler. For control give him the extension window. 
 

I’m not advocating straight up trade. Im suggesting Santander, their choice of Mullins/Hays/Mountcastle, and a couple prospects in our top 15. But nobody higher than Ortiz. Actually I’d trade Cowser but I don’t think he’d answer the bell on guaranteed performance either. But, they might take him as the 3rd piece behind the guys that meet their 2024 needs.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I said maybe. I honestly don't think any of our vet OF are enough to move the needle in a Luzardo trade. I think it would have to be all prospects and probably at least one who we really don't want to trade. 

I could see them wanting one of the vet guys..I just don’t think they can be the centerpiece.

Id offer Cowser/Westburg, Ortiz/Norby and Mountcastle.

If they chose Westburg, they can’t have him him and Ortiz.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[HakunaSakata]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I could see them wanting one of the vet guys..I just don’t think they can be the centerpiece.

Id offer Cowser/Westburg, Ortiz/Norby and Mountcastle.

Agreed. I think Cowser/Westburg and one of the vets might be enough without Ortiz/Norby unless everyone else's interest drives up his price. I also think some folks are overselling the need for the Marlins to replace Soler's power. They kind of already did when they traded for Burger/Bell late last season. 

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Sending both vets does nothing. I'm not sure why you can't grasp the concept of how much age and contract length factor into a player's trade value. The Marlins aren't giving up a young controllable pitcher for older players who will be FAs in 1-2 years and fringe prospects. 

So another team just traded a player with an extension clause. They can do a similar deal with Anthony Santander. Ortiz is a top 50 prospet and is graded at 55, quit pretending he’s fringe. Most of our top 15 guys would be in many teams top 5. That’s why you are obviously undervaluing them. Norby, Bradfield, and Beavers all are 50 rated prospects per MLB. We have a number of other guys that rank as 45. Cowser is graded out as 60. There is plenty to make a deal with.

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No I’m not …..Pasquentino hasnt put it all together yet. He’s currently not a better hit than Santander. Use the stats not projections. Maybe he ends up better, maybe he doesn’t. Santander has 60 homers and 180 RBIs over the last two seasons vs 19 and 54. 
 

So it would depend if their GM wants predictable performance or a might be. Their pitching is good enough that they could be a major contender this year. Pas doesn’t even guarantee the RBIs lost with Soler. For control give him the extension window. 
 

I’m not advocating straight up trade. Im suggesting Santander, their choice of Mullins/Hays/Mountcastle, and a couple prospects in our top 15. But nobody higher than Ortiz. Actually I’d trade Cowser but I don’t think he’d answer the bell on guaranteed performance either. But, they might take him as the 3rd piece behind the guys that meet their 2024 needs.

If you honestly believe that Santander is a more valuable trade commodity than Pasquantino then there's no point in arguing with you because you are not of sound mind and body. 

[RZNJ]

Most were ready to do Cowser and Ortiz for Cease.   Luzardo is, arguably, coming off a better year and has an extra year of service time.  It’s hard to believe they want a ML balanced package since they are trading Luzardo.  They might want a combination.   I’d guess something like this.

Ortiz (Westburg is not a true SS and Arráez is stuck at 2B if Josh Bell is the 1B), Cowser, Santander, Urías.   They can plug Santander into RF, move Jesus Sanchez and bench Bryan De La Cruz.  Urias can share 3B with the defensively challenged Jake Burger, allowing Burger to get DH AB’s.   Cowser can get RF starts and replace Santander defensively late.  Ortiz becomes their starting SS.  It’s a lot to give up and there is pressure on Kjerstad to replace Santander.   There is still the potential for Mayo to move to RF and the possibility that Westburg or Norby can play left freeing Hays up for RF.   Those are options as trading both Cowser and Santander decreases OF depth. 
 

Too much?  Maybe but it’s also maybe a deal.

[Aristotelian]

We could probably get Luzardo if we offer Basallo or Mayo. Anyone want to do that?