Craig Kimbrel - Signing

[btdart20]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I could do it without managing it properly.  

$5m isn't worth a dime any more.

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is no doubt Bautista was rode real hard last year. He was on pace for 77.2 very high leverage innings. Of the top ten saves leaders, only Emmanuel Clase's (72.2 IP) was rode similarly and it's not surprising Clase's September ERA was 4.63 and he had 3 blown saves in his 13 games. Clase only pitched over one inning once all year. Bautista was used in more than one inning seven times. 

1.  We need to win more games by bigger margins.  
2.  We need to not always use the closer for a 3-run save.  
 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

$5m isn't worth a dime any more.

I’ll take my chances.

[Satyr3206]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I’ll take my chances.

Same here

[Hallas]

49 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is no doubt Bautista was rode real hard last year. He was on pace for 77.2 very high leverage innings. Of the top ten saves leaders, only Emmanuel Clase's (72.2 IP) was rode similarly and it's not surprising Clase's September ERA was 4.63 and he had 3 blown saves in his 13 games. Clase only pitched over one inning once all year. Bautista was used in more than one inning seven times. 

 

I feel like there should be ways to increase elite reliever usage to around 100 innings without overly disrupting their rest and properly managing their fatigue.  A reliever that can be relied on to go multiple innings should be going in for the 8th inning more often and be given 2 days off afterward.  There's no guarantee that he would be needed in future games, and an 8th inning 1 run lead is generally a higher leverage situation than a 9th inning 2 run lead.

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

$5m isn't worth a dime any more.

Thanks Yogi.

[Satyr3206]

I had a bunch of Vultures in the back yard the other day. Sort of made me think about Kimbrel.

[Billy F-Face3]

28 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

$5m isn't worth a dime any more.

Let's imagine you live out your life for another 45 years... that's a annual salary of $111,111.11 each year. A 6 figure salary is decent for most middle class Americans. And if you're single, that goes even farther.

But I'm derailing the thread with that, so I digress.

[e16bball]

44 minutes ago, Number5 said:

LOL, no way.  He would step off and throw you out easily.  Notice that MLB players aren't trying this.

In all fairness, MLB players were 12/12 in stealing bases off him last year. With two catchers who combined to catch 23.3% of base stealers with all other pitchers, so holding runners was definitely a bit of an issue for him.

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

$5m isn't worth a dime any more.

BTW, you can have the dime and I’ll take the 5M.

[Safelykept]

2 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

I don't think they need Hader or Hicks (though Hader would be awesome), but I do think they could use another high-leverage reliever.   I am not sure Cano is that guy.   Hall COULD be that guy, but he might be starting. 

Hall wont be starting in all likely hood. Keep building the pen, cant discount the importance of it. I like the signing for 2 reasons, were a better bullpen today plus it signals to other teams that we might be in trade  talks with ( CWS Miami etc) that you ll get prospects but not one of our Top 3. Get a trade done for Cease or  Lauzardo and you're probably looking at the most successful  off-season since the mid 90s

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, e16bball said:

In all fairness, MLB players were 12/12 in stealing bases off him last year. With two catchers who combined to catch 23.3% of base stealers with all other pitchers, so holding runners was definitely a bit of an issue for him.

That has nothing whatsoever to do with his stance when taking the sign.  He's not even in his stretch at that point.  Come on.

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, Givens should give his agent a high five every time he sees him. What an absolute fleecing that deal was for him. He will end up getting paid $7 million by the Orioles to put up an 11.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. 

We give Elias a pass a lot due to the Orioles winning 101 games last year, but the Givens signing shows he and his team need some work when it comes to evaluating relievers coming off of injuries. 

His velocity had trended down every year since 2019, he was coming off knee injuries which clearly was contributed by the 250 plus pounds he was dropping on that front leg. Why they decided that he was worth $5 million and then had to offer him $2 million buy out the next year was a very poor decision. Hopefully Elias will learn from this mistake.

It funny, as analytically focus the Elias regime is, they really don't seem to take trends into consideration as much as others. Both Givens and Frazier were trending in the wrong direction when signed and sure enough, those trends continued as they are on the wrong side of 30.

Givens in Spades yes  plus 20, Frazier no, Frazier did exactly what he was brought here to do, Veteran presence, left handed bat, bring the pups along at the Orgs, pace plus a 1.7 WAR which is fair value for 8 million and he did that in a little over 400 at bats. Bad comparison to the Givens signing.

[e16bball]

One interesting note with Kimbrel is that he was absolutely spectacular when throwing to JT Realmuto (1.86 ERA, .535 OPSA) and absolutely awful when throwing to Garrett Stubbs (8.04 ERA, .838 OPSA). 

He pitched 17 times with Stubbs behind the plate, so it’s not as though that was just one or two bad days inflating the numbers. Kimbrel had 5 outings where he gave up multiple ERs, and Stubbs was the catcher on 3 of those 5 occasions (60%). He gave up any runs at all in 16 outings, and Stubbs was the catcher on 7 of those 16 occasions (44%). That seems pretty noteworthy when you consider that Stubbs only caught him in 17 of his 71 outings (24%).

Stubbs really only started catching full-time (well, as a full-time backup) in 2022. He certainly does not have the background to match guys like Realmuto, Rutschman, and McCann. Perhaps Elias and his crew think there’s something to exploit in that data.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

How much do you think a guy like Wacha commands?

2/35?? Is Wacha better than what we have?