MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, emmett16 said:

But what if Ortiz gets a little better by learning/observing how Holliday practices, approaches the game, trains, takes care of himself off the field, learns about his sleep & eating habits, etc.  Meanwhile Holliday does the same  competing against & learning from Ortiz.   Does that same dynamic of high end elite performance occur if one of those guys is org filler? 

What are the odds of that actually happening? 

I'd say about the same as the odds of a guy pouting because he feels he's being underappreciated and isn't getting the chances he thinks he deserves.

Am I pulling that out of thin air?  Sure, but so are you.

Instead I'd rather trade out of this needlessly deep depth and either get multiple pieces that are further away or an upgrade to the ML OD roster.

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

No they don’t.  Maybe next year you can make that argument.  They have top level depth.  Appreciate it.  They have put themselves in a position to forge a path of their choosing.  They don’t have to do anything.  

I adamantly disagree…. Norby, Ortiz, and Stowers back to AAA where they have nothing left to prove is an injustice 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I adamantly disagree…. Norby, Ortiz, and Stowers back to AAA where they have nothing left to prove is an injustice 

You know there was a time, not that long ago, when the Orioles entire organization didn’t have three guys like Norby, Ortiz and Stowers.   And now it’s an injustice to have guys like this in the system?

 

Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander. Starters who will be replaced in the next 12-24 months. 
 

Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are veteran bench/former starting players who are likely to be replaced in the same timeframe. 
 

All of the players above have made contributions to the Orioles recent success.  Having guys to replace them who are as good or better is many things. An injustice is not one of them. 
 

All of your hand wringing over the timing of something that IS going to work itself out in time is odd. It has been awhile since the team has had this amount of depth but finding career encompassing answers for each of these pieces simply is not necessary in January of 2024. It won’t be in June either. 
 

The resolution of these issues will happen erratically or organically but it will happen. 

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I adamantly disagree…. Norby, Ortiz, and Stowers back to AAA where they have nothing left to prove is an injustice 

There are a lot of injustices in the world, and that sure as hell ain’t one of them. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I adamantly disagree…. Norby, Ortiz, and Stowers back to AAA where they have nothing left to prove is an injustice 

 

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, foxfield said:

You know there was a time, not that long ago, when the Orioles entire organization didn’t have three guys like Norby, Ortiz and Stowers.   And now it’s an injustice to have guys like this in the system?

 

Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander. Starters who will be replaced in the next 12-24 months. 
 

Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are veteran bench/former starting players who are likely to be replaced in the same timeframe. 
 

All of the players above have made contributions to the Orioles recent success.  Having guys to replace them who are as good or better is many things. An injustice is not one of them. 
 

All of your hand wringing over the timing of something that IS going to work itself out in time is odd. It has been awhile since the team has had this amount of depth but finding career encompassing answers for each of these pieces simply is not necessary in January of 2024. It won’t be in June either. 
 

The resolution of these issues will happen erratically or organically but it will happen. 

You saying it will work itself out is very simplistic. Sure, it’s 100% going to work itself out but it very well may end up working itself out in a way where guys are out of options, lose value, etc….If that happens and you lose these guys for nothing or have to trade them for far less value, that’s not a good thing. 
 

You seem so confident that Elias is going to move these guys for good value or get good value from them in the majors but that’s not accurate. These guys are “old”. They will start to lose a lot of value because of age and little to no experience.

They need to start to unload some of these guys. They need to start to move on from some of them, get good value back and do more to try to win now.

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You saying it will work itself out is very simplistic. Sure, it’s 100% going to work itself out but it very well may end up working itself out in a way where guys are out of options, lose value, etc….If that happens and you lose these guys for nothing or have to trade them for far less value, that’s not a good thing. 
 

You seem so confident that Elias is going to move these guys for good value or get good value from them in the majors but that’s not accurate. These guys are “old”. They will start to lose a lot of value because of age and little to no experience.

They need to start to unload some of these guys. They need to start to move on from some of them, get good value back and do more to try to win now.

I am saying it will work itself out isn't simplistic, it's completely factual.  Knowing how it works is what is unknowable.  Value is important, but what is on the field is what matters.  I want moves, just like everyone else but....

If Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander, Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are all simply allowed to walk and are replaced ultimately by Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Holliday, Basallo, Norby, Stowers etc....that isn't a bad outcome.

Whether it is the most desirable outcome is really the question.  

But IF Norby stays one more year in our system and then plays for 6 years as a much better version of McKenna...If Mayo holds 3B, and Holliday ends at 2b...and Ortiz and Westburg are players off the bench.....Or is Mayo goes to 1B and Westburg 2b or 3B.....these are not problems.  

The declining value is only perceived value as it pertains to trading.   Of course some of these guys are going to exceed our expectations, some of them will not....some may yet be traded soon...or later.  The idea that accumulating talent in a major league system is a bad thing is poor judgement.  

When the Orioles are failing to meet expectations on the field because they have mismanaged the roster, it will fair to critique Elias for how he has operated.  And there is no question he has entered a different phase of his helmsmanship of the franchise.

But there are at least 8 guys who are non pitchers....with varying degrees of talent, that no one here really sees being on the roster for more than a year or two.  That's before you get to the pitchers...where we are good, but not great.  

Regardless of how this off season ends, there is still a massive amount of change coming.  It's not simplistic to say that.   When it happens isn't known, but the timeline is set in a way.  How it happens is going to have a big impact on how Elias is judged here long term.

But having ML quality position players at 26 in AAA should not be an indictment against anyone.  It's a luxury that teams like the Dodgers have carried for sometime.   BBref shows the Dodgers AAA roster last year as holding an average age of 29 hitters at 26.7 and 53 pitchers with an average age of 28.6.

The handwringing over answers that will come not being known today is poppycock.  The debate should be based on what happens on the field and what does not happen on the field.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I am saying it will work itself out isn't simplistic, it's completely factual.  Knowing how it works is what is unknowable.  Value is important, but what is on the field is what matters.  I want moves, just like everyone else but....

If Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander, Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are all simply allowed to walk and are replaced ultimately by Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Holliday, Basallo, Norby, Stowers etc....that isn't a bad outcome.

Whether it is the most desirable outcome is really the question.  

But IF Norby stays one more year in our system and then plays for 6 years as a much better version of McKenna...If Mayo holds 3B, and Holliday ends at 2b...and Ortiz and Westburg are players off the bench.....Or is Mayo goes to 1B and Westburg 2b or 3B.....these are not problems.  

The declining value is only perceived value as it pertains to trading.   Of course some of these guys are going to exceed our expectations, some of them will not....some may yet be traded soon...or later.  The idea that accumulating talent in a major league system is a bad thing is poor judgement.  

When the Orioles are failing to meet expectations on the field because they have mismanaged the roster, it will fair to critique Elias for how he has operated.  And there is no question he has entered a different phase of his helmsmanship of the franchise.

But there are at least 8 guys who are non pitchers....with varying degrees of talent, that no one here really sees being on the roster for more than a year or two.  That's before you get to the pitchers...where we are good, but not great.  

Regardless of how this off season ends, there is still a massive amount of change coming.  It's not simplistic to say that.   When it happens isn't known, but the timeline is set in a way.  How it happens is going to have a big impact on how Elias is judged here long term.

But having ML quality position players at 26 in AAA should not be an indictment against anyone.  It's a luxury that teams like the Dodgers have carried for sometime.   BBref shows the Dodgers AAA roster last year as holding an average age of 29 hitters at 26.7 and 53 pitchers with an average age of 28.6.

The handwringing over answers that will come not being known today is poppycock.  The debate should be based on what happens on the field and what does not happen on the field.

 

I don’t get how you can basically be ok with guys losing value and then losing them for very little but to each their own. 

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I adamantly disagree…. Norby, Ortiz, and Stowers back to AAA where they have nothing left to prove is an injustice 

It’s hardly an injustice, that’s silly. Stowers and Ortiz got called up last year and hit poorly. 

[Fla_O'sfan]

21 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s hardly an injustice, that’s silly. Stowers and Ortiz got called up last year and hit poorly. 

Ortiz had 33 AB’s. Stowers had 30 AB’s. Adley and Gunnar were hardly mashing in their first 30 AB’s.

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What are the odds of that actually happening? 

I'd say about the same as the odds of a guy pouting because he feels he's being underappreciated and isn't getting the chances he thinks he deserves.

Am I pulling that out of thin air?  Sure, but so are you.

Instead I'd rather trade out of this needlessly deep depth and either get multiple pieces that are further away or an upgrade to the ML OD roster.

Sensible, logical, post.  So of course, people are going to complain about it. 

[Otter]

27 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s hardly an injustice, that’s silly. Stowers and Ortiz got called up last year and hit poorly. 

It's just as silly for you to cite incredibly small sample sizes of Stowers and Ortiz hitting poorly.  Yes, the logjam will work itself out somehow, but the question is will it work out in a way that maximizes our assets (either by giving them legit major league opportunities or trading them while they still have value).  None of us know the answer to that question right now, but I do think Elias needs to do something about this good problem this offseason or by the trade deadline.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

You know there was a time, not that long ago, when the Orioles entire organization didn’t have three guys like Norby, Ortiz and Stowers.   And now it’s an injustice to have guys like this in the system?

 

Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander. Starters who will be replaced in the next 12-24 months. 
 

Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are veteran bench/former starting players who are likely to be replaced in the same timeframe. 
 

All of the players above have made contributions to the Orioles recent success.  Having guys to replace them who are as good or better is many things. An injustice is not one of them. 
 

All of your hand wringing over the timing of something that IS going to work itself out in time is odd. It has been awhile since the team has had this amount of depth but finding career encompassing answers for each of these pieces simply is not necessary in January of 2024. It won’t be in June either. 
 

The resolution of these issues will happen erratically or organically but it will happen. 

I agree that the other poster was overreacting, but I do think you have to look at the ages of some of those prospects and take that into consideration. I have no issues with a 23 year old Norby spending some time in the minors this season, but Stowers is 26 and Ortiz is 25 and they're both at the point in their careers where they're probably going to start depreciating in value. If the Orioles believe in those players it seems silly to waste anymore of their prime years in the minors. So why not trade some of the veterans now to free up space for them? And if they don't believe in them then why not trade them while they still have decent value. Either way it seems like some sort of move needs to be made to maximize the return on investment. So in that regard I disagree with your general sentiment that doing nothing/holding is a smart play by Elias. 

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s hardly an injustice, that’s silly. Stowers and Ortiz got called up last year and hit poorly. 

Both got basically 5 games worth of at bats playing once per week over a month. Have you ever played organized ball. I will assume you have and that you understand how difficult that is.

[foxfield]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I don’t get how you can basically be ok with guys losing value and then losing them for very little but to each their own. 

You sound like you are worried about the ranking of prospects.  I don't care about perceived value.   I care about the talent on the field and in the system.  And I care about how successfully they manage the coming transactions and to that...perceived value does of course have importance.

But if Santander has little trade value...or Mountcastle...or anyone else who is going to be gone in a short amount of time, then they will need to be replaced with someone as good or better in order to remain competitive.  You know that.  I know that.

What I don't believe is that there is a sell by date on any of the specific people currently on the roster or in the minor leagues today.  Letting all of the current roster folks just leave would not be ideal, but I am also not going to waste time criticizing something that hasn't happened yet.  IF Adley or Gunnar do not sign long term deals, at some point they will have a sell by date.  Not today and not next year.

As to the prospects, I think the outcome is much more complex than you and others make it.  There are more bodies than we can play today.  Everyone sees that.  But that is what happens when an organization amasses a strong pipeline of talent.  These problems...as you see them will be solved by action or ultimately in a worst case scenario, by inaction.  But that assumes that no moves are ever made.  

I just do not see that as being the most likely path forward. And because of that I am not afraid that this issue wasn't solved yesterday.

 

Edited January 29 by foxfield