I don't care what Elias says, they have to - and will - make a trade

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You’re right but keeping Colton Cowser in AAA at age 24 doesn’t change what he did at age 23.   

It's going to change the math.

Fair or not it will.

Guys spinning their wheels aren't going to raise their trade value by repeating a level and getting older.

[HakunaSakata]

47 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

What happens if 2 or 3 of Gunnar, Hays, Santander, and Westburg (or anyone 2 or 3) get injured next year?  They have to play 162 games.  That's an insane workload that people continue to underestimate the toll it takes.  They will find a way to get everyone AB's, even if that is in AAA.  

I don't buy that any of these guys lose any value one year from now.  If anything, they will gain value by continuing to improve in one of, if not, the best player development systems in MLB.  

Elias doesn't need to do anything.  He has boat loads of talent in house.  

With all that said I continue to believe he will trade the vets to make space eventually.  Maybe not all of them, but one or two of Hays, Santander, Urias, and Mountcastle will likely be traded by this time next year.   I think Urias, Hays & Mountcastle would be the easiest to replace in the short-term.  

Worrying about having backups at every positon seems like the whole "playing scared" adage. Hedging your bets is fine, but not at the expense of improving the actual team. If someone gets injured then I think you cross that bridge when you get to it. Also, the boatloads of talent is a like a carton of milk sitting in the fridge. It has a best used by date, especially if he plans on using any of them as trade chips. Yes, some may gain value, but some may also lose it and age is a prospect's worst enemy. 

[Warehouse]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

And we're basically devoid of DFA-able 26-man guys other than Hilliard and maybe Webb. It's why it was kind of surprising they tendered all these guys contracts. Now they are forced to trade or eat arbitration salaries. 

There’s not really a scenario where we are forced to eat arbitration salaries for a bubble player we lose from the org, other than O’Hearn or Coulombe who have the 5 years service time needed to reject an outright assignment. 
 

Otherwise, we can put any of these players on outright assignment waivers with 3 possible outcomes:

1) The player is claimed and the claiming team absorbs the remaining salary. 

2) The player clears waivers but elects free agency in lieu of the assignment (assuming they have at least 3 years service time or were previously outrighted). In this scenario, they forfeit remaining compensation owed.

3) The player clears waivers and accepts the assignment. If their contract is guaranteed at the major league, they’ll continue getting paid as if on the big league team.  If on a split contract, they’ll earn the designated minor league rate in their Uniform Player Contract (though these players will be more likely to elect free agency).

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's going to change the math.

Fair or not it will.

Guys spinning their wheels aren't going to raise their trade value by repeating a level and getting older.

Michael Busch of the Dodgers repeated AAA after a full season there in 2022.  He’s the Dodgers #1 prospect, maintained his BA top 100 (dropped a little), is 26, and is talked about as a major trade chip this off season.   
 

Raise their value?  Probably not.  Maintain their trade value.  Probably.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Prospect age is incredibly important.

Would you rather have a guy from age 21-26, 23-28, or 26-31?

Depends on the guy.   Probably the middle grouping but could be the younger or older group.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Worrying about having backups at every positon seems like the whole "playing scared" adage. Hedging your bets is fine, but not at the expense of improving the actual team. If someone gets injured then I think you cross that bridge when you get to it. Also, the boatloads of talent is a like a carton of milk sitting in the fridge. It has a best used by date, especially if he plans on using any of them as trade chips. Yes, some may gain value, but some may also lose it and age is a prospect's worst enemy. 

I think it's more of a maximizing your entire 40 man roster vs. hedging bets or playing scared.  162 games is a lot to cover.  I do concede a trade will need to take place at some point, but to say it's an epic failure if something isn't done before ST I think is a fallacy.  I don't see them moving their cost controlled prospects for a shiny new high-end toy.  I think the trades will come from aging and 'expensive' vets.  I will be suprised if Hays, Santander, Urias, and Mountcastle are all on the roster this time next year.  I don't see any of our current prospects losing any value between now and this time next year, I see them gaining value. 

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree.

I'd much rather have a 22 year old prospect, maybe from another team than a 27 year old.

Stowers played at 25 this season.  If he wastes a year in the minors he's going to be 27, I don't care what year he puts up in Norfolk that makes him less attractive.

 

I'd much rather have a high-end talent on my roster as a backup in case of trade, injury, or poor performance.  I'm 'pro-player' except when it comes to the team that I want to win.  So, I'll pull my emotions out of the equation and be happy to have a talent like Stowers in AAA.  If we didn't have waves of talent coming up behind him, I might feel differently.  I'll be perfectly happy if they trade him for some pitching but will also be perfectly happy if he's our AAA RF waiting for an opportunity.  That bodes well for the team's chances in 2024.  

[Safelykept]

9 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I kind of agree with this, though don’t see it as certain as you.

You mention several option-less players, including Tate. Based on Fangraph’s roster resource page, he does still have options though I don’t know if that’s true.

In any case, I see the following players as NOT making the roster IF the season starters today (and assuming at least one more SP addition): Mike Baumann, Jacob Webb, and ONE OF: Ryan McKenna or Sam Hilliard

I have Tate, Urias and Mateo all making the roster at the moment, of course, Urias or Mateo could be dealt with Ortiz easily taking the spot.

I don't know that you NEED to move one of the RPs. You could if you get a deal you like, but there are RPs that move during the end of spring training...plus there's always some injuries. The same is true for McKenna and Hilliard. And none of them are making so much that it causes that much of a concern. 

All that said, I do expect at least one deal...and would not be at all surprised if we see Urias or Mateo in the deal or someone like Webb or Baumann. 

Yes, Its probably likely they could get moved but with the exception of Baumann there all older and waiver claims. they are probably worth more than Richard Bleier but if youre expecting a dylan Bundy type return not likely. They  probably have  more value to the team. Mike Elias is in a good spot right now

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

One aspect of this that was not mentioned, or at least I didn't see it as I perused the thread so if I missed it I apologize, but this is one of the limitations of the draft strategy that ignored pitchers in the top three rounds until this year. 

Acquire the bats and trade for the arms makes sense, except that everyone knows that's your strategy. The other thing is that pitching tends to weed itself out through more injuries than position players so there are less guys available to acquire. 

Established starting pitchers who's had a at least one TOR year and are available are going to cost multiple top prospects, but Elias 9perhaps rightfully so) is reluctant to trade them and probably prefers to trade from the Norby, Stowers, Ortiz types. unfortunately, they don't seem to the the types of players other teams covet.

I was happy to see Elias change their philosophy last year because the position player bubble has gotten to the point that they are backed up in AAA and either Elias is risk adverse in trading them or is not getting the deals he wants because teams know they are backed up.

From a business standpoint, it makes sense to have Norby, Stowers, Cowser-types sitting in AAA ready to go, but at some point, these guys are going to get frustrated knowing they should be playing in the major leagues somewhere. 

Hopefully Elias will makes some trades because with all the guys he tendered contracts to, either he's planning on bringing basically the same team back or building his depth so he can actually makes some trades.

My question about the "draft no pitchers" in the first 3 rounds strategy... Was it a case of Elias really thinking there weren't any pitchers worth drafting in those rounds/drafts? Are there any pitchers from those drafts that Elias passed on that we are really bummed that we didn't get? 

[Jagwar]

I reached peak McKenna and Mateo last year. I've seen all I think we're gonna see from them. Urias is more valuable IMO, but I'd be fine with handing off his role to Ortiz. 

[emmett16]

7 hours ago, Jagwar said:

My question about the "draft no pitchers" in the first 3 rounds strategy... Was it a case of Elias really thinking there weren't any pitchers worth drafting in those rounds/drafts? Are there any pitchers from those drafts that Elias passed on that we are really bummed that we didn't get? 

It must have been luck that resulted in them having the 7th best pitching staff (by era) in MLB last year.  If people haven't seen the steady improvement in pitching over the last three years, I don't know what to tell them.   But we need to draft more pitchers!!!! (shakes fist at sky)

30th in 2021, 18th in 2022, 7th in 2023....

Edited December 12, 2023 by emmett16

[Jagwar]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

It must have been luck that resulted in them having the 7th best pitching staff (by era) in MLB last year.  If people haven't seen the steady improvement in pitching over the last three years, I don't know what to tell them.   But we need to draft more pitchers!!!! (shakes fist at sky)

30th in 2021, 18th in 2022, 7th in 2023....

They had a great pitching year for sure. But other than unproven starters McDermott, Povich, maybe (hopefully) Johnson... do you honestly think the O's minor league system has a strong pitching pipeline?

And I'll ask the questions again. Did Elias believe there weren't any pitchers worth drafting in those rounds/drafts? Are there any top flight pitchers from those drafts that we missed out on?

 

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

They had a great pitching year for sure. But other than unproven starters McDermott, Povich, maybe (hopefully) Johnson... do you honestly think the O's minor league system has a strong pitching pipeline?

And I'll ask the questions again. Did Elias believe there weren't any pitchers worth drafting in those rounds/drafts? Are there any top flight pitchers from those drafts that we missed out on?

 

I think they look for  very specific body types and ball movement profiles vs. traditional stats/historical success when looking at pitchers.  Pitchers are the most likely to break and the value in getting an assett that isn't as likely to break in the higher rounds fits their approach.  I think they are very confident in the development program and look for a pitcher with unique characteristics that they can mold with their teachings and philosophies.  I don't know if I'm qualified to say they have or don't have a strong pitching pipeline, but to see what they've done with unheralded pitchers (Bautistia, Cano, Bradish, Coulombe, Perez, Wells) is pretty eye opening.  I don't think anyone saw any of those pitchers as being an impact player at the MLB level.  So, do we need high-end prospets that other outlets rank highly?  Or do we need a recruiting and development system that nets solid MLB performers? 

[wse120372]

Personally, I think O'Hearn is the odd man out in favor of Kjerstad. The extra draft pick for winning the rookie of the year has to be cooked into the process. Granted, it's a much smaller chance than Gunner had but I cant see Elias not taking a shot at it. 

[E-D-D-I-E]

21 hours ago, interloper said:

Agreed on all here. I don't fault him for putting out some GM speak during the meetings - it just struck me as one of the only times I wasn't really buying it when you look at the realities of the current roster. In some ways, though, he's right that he doesn't have to trade prospects. He does, IMO, have to trade from the ML 26-man though. 

Agree that it could be awhile before we see it, and some of these could happen late in ST. 

If he is prospect hugging, the expected return isn't going to be what we need to improve our roster. I am beginning to think we have found the chink in Elias's armor. Time will tell, but guys like Mateo, Urias, and Baumann, aren't getting us even a mid-tier starter. 

My same old saying "Finite Number of Players".